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#531
24th February 2015
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2015.02.24 :Forex News: Breakout imminent. Speeches and testimonies hold the headlines
EUR/USD Forex News: The German IFO Business Climate survey posted a value below analysts’ expectations and the euro weakened as a result. However the pair remained in ranging mode and neither support nor resistance was broken.  Technical Outlook A breakout is imminent but the direction remains uncertain; the important levels for short-term price action remain 1.1440 as resistance and 1.1270 as support. A break of either of them will mark the end of the ranging period but since price came in close vicinity of support and couldn’t break it, we expect a bounce higher which can find resistance at 1.1440. However, until a clear break occurs, our view remains neutral on this pair. Fundamental Outlook ECB President Mario Draghi is due to speak today at the official unveiling of the 20 Euro banknote. The event takes place in Frankfurt at 2:00 pm GMT and is followed at 3:00 pm GMT by Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony on the Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report. This testimony is likely to generate more volatility, depending on her altitude and answers. At the same time the U.S. Consumer Confidence survey is released and expected to show a drop to 99.6 from the previous 102.9. Consumer confidence is correlated with consumer spending so a higher than anticipated value will strengthen the US Dollar. GBP/USD The British CBI Realized Sales posted a surprisingly low value of 1 while analysts’ expected 42. This initially generated Pound weakness but a remarkable reversal occurred soon after, without any apparent reason.  Technical Outlook After bouncing at 1.5420 the pair headed into the support located at 1.5340 as expected, but here a near perfect bounce occurred, followed by a climb of more than 100 pips. Currently the bulls are trying to break 1.5460 and if they succeed, the door will be open for an extended move into 1.5540 resistance. The Relative Strength Index is close to overbought, a fact which may hinder further bullish movement for the time being. The first potential support is located at 1.5420. Fundamental Outlook At 10:00 am GMT the British Inflation Report Hearings take place. Bank of England Governor and other members of the Monetary Policy Committee will testify before the Parliament’s Treasury Committee on economic growth and inflation. The hearings last a few hours during which volatility may increase and sharp moves can occur so caution is recommended. As always, the U.S. events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market. Source of article from the best forex broker. Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected] 
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#532
25th February 2015
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2015.02.25 :Forex News: The marathon of testimonies continues. Volatility expected
EUR/USD Forex News: Janet Yellen’s testimony yesterday triggered mixed up and down movement as she mentioned that the Fed is expecting inflation to rise to 2% but a rate hike is unlikely to happen during the next two Fed meetings. The range was not broken.  Technical Outlook The pair is still trading inside the horizontal channel created by 1.1440 resistance and 1.1270 support, with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the 2 oscillators moving almost flat on a four hour chart. If price approaches support again and fails to break it, we anticipate a move into 1.1440 resistance but given the sideways movement seen lately, our view remains mainly neutral. Fundamental Outlook Today at 3:00 pm GMT Fed Chair Yellen will testify again, this time before the House Financial Services Committee. The speech and the questions she will receive are likely to generate strong and even mixed market reaction so we recommend caution. At 4:30 pm GMT ECB President Mario Draghi will testify before the European Parliament on the ECB Annual Report 2013. All his public speeches can easily create volatility but price direction is usually determined by his attitude and answers. GBP/USD The British Inflation Report hearings went mostly unnoticed yesterday and the strongest movement was seen at the time of Yellen’s testimony.  Technical Outlook The resistance at 1.5460 is still holding but so is the minor support at 1.5420. A move outside this 40 pips range is very likely to occur today and considering that price made several unsuccessful attempts to break resistance, we consider that the chances of a bullish break have decreased. If the pair can move below 1.5420, we expect a touch of the support at 1.5340. Fundamental Outlook The British Bankers’ Association will release today at 9:30 am GMT the Mortgage Approvals. This indicator offers insights into the British house market and usually higher numbers than the forecast 36.2K are beneficial for the Pound. Half an hour later BoE Governor Mark Carney will deliver a public speech at the launch of the One Bank Research Agenda but the impact on the currency market is likely to be mild. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market. Source of article from the best forex broker. Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]
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#533
26th February 2015
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2015.05.26 :Forex News: American inflation data and U.K. GDP – the day’s main market movers
EUR/USD Forex News: The testimonies of Yellen and Draghi did not create the anticipated volatility and the pair had another slow, choppy day. Both support and resistance are still intact and the ranging period is still not over.  Technical Outlook Although it’s mostly flat, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average seems to offer a minimum of resistance as seen from yesterday’s price action. However, the pair is moving sideways and lately it isn’t even trying to break the resistance at 1.1440 or the support at 1.1270. Until a clean break of the mentioned levels occurs, the pair’s movement will remain choppy and unpredictable. Fundamental Outlook American inflation data will be today’s main event. The US Consumer Price Index, which is the primary gauge of inflation will be released at 1:30 pm GMT and is expected to change -0.6%, compared with the previous -0.4%. Fed Chair Yellen mentioned during a previous testimony that inflation is expected to grow towards 2.0%, but so far the numbers are still dropping; if today we see another dip, the US Dollar is likely to be negatively affected. GBP/USD The British Bankers’ Association Mortgage Approvals came out close to the anticipated value but the Pound continued to strengthen throughout the day and major resistance was touched.  Technical Outlook The resistance located at 1.5540 was touched yesterday and price quickly reacted by moving lower; the Relative Strength Index was overbought and this contributed to the bounce. Today we expect price to remain between 1.5540 resistance and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but a break of either of them will probably determine the next medium term direction. Another bounce at resistance would imply that lower prices will follow. Fundamental Outlook At 9:30 am GMT the second estimate of the British Gross Domestic Product is released (forecast 0.5%) and can have a strong impact on the Pound since the GDP is an economy’s main performance gauge; however, this is the second version of the indicator and tends to have a lower impact than the Preliminary version. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market. Source of article from the best forex broker. Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]
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#534
27th February 2015
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2015.05.27 :Forex News: Traders’ attention shifts towards German inflation and American GDP as bears regain control
EUR/USD Forex News: Yesterday the pair finally broke out of the range it was confined in. American inflation increased as shown by the Core version of the CPI indicator. The Durable Goods Orders also showed an increase, contributing to US Dollar strength.  Technical Outlook The break of 1.1270 support will play a major role for future price action if the bears can keep the pair below this level. Clearly the recent momentum belongs to the bears and we anticipate further movement south but a re-test of the broken level is very possible, considering that the Relative Strength Index is close to its 30 level, indicating oversold. Our current bias is bearish after brief retracements, with 1.1270 acting as potential resistance and 1.1100 as support. Fundamental Outlook The focus will shift today towards German inflation data which is released at 1:00 pm GMT. A hefty increase from the previous -1.1% to 0.6% is expected and if this forecast comes true, the euro will most likely strengthen. Half an hour later the U.S. Preliminary Gross Domestic Product comes out; the anticipated change is 2.1% while the previous was 2.6%. Although the first version (Advance) is the most important, the Preliminary also has the potential to strongly move the currency; higher percentages are beneficial for the greenback. GBP/USD British Gross Domestic Product matched analysts’ expectations and the event didn’t have a massive impact but the US data generated a sharp fall which broke several support levels.  Technical Outlook The bulls tried to take price above 1.5540 – 1.5550 resistance but failed to do so and this was a sign that their strength is fading. The pair is now trading comfortably below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below 1.5460 but 1.5420 is not clearly broken yet. We expect price to move below this level, towards 1.5340 but before that can happen, a retracement higher is needed; adding to this opinion is the position of the Relative Strength Index which is signaling an oversold condition. Fundamental Outlook The United Kingdom didn’t schedule important economic data releases today so price direction will be influenced by the U.S. events and by the technical aspect. We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market. Source of article from the best forex broker. Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]
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