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2015.02.10 :Forex News: British Manufacturing data and estimated GDP decide Pound direction

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair had a pretty calm trading session yesterday, with price oscillating between support and resistance. The G20 meetings did not generate substantial moves.



Technical Outlook
Price action was confined between 1.1270 support and 1.1360 resistance and it seems like the pair is under bearish pressure. Today we expect a break of 1.1270 minor support and a move towards 1.1100 area. However, if price moves above 1.1360 and above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, we expect the bulls to continue higher but we don’t believe 1.1500 will be threatened unless surprise developments take place.

Fundamental Outlook
The day lacks major releases for both the Euro and the US Dollar but the second day of the G20 meetings could generate sudden moves.

GBP/USD

Price action yesterday was mostly bearish and price touched both support and resistance, without managing to break either of them.



Technical Outlook
As long as the pair remains below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, our short term bias is bearish in anticipation of a break of 1.5200 support. Although we favor the short side, a break of 1.5260 would most likely take the pair into 1.5315 minor resistance. During the day watch for overbought/oversold conditions of the RSI as the pair is not in a strong trend and this increases the chances of reversals after an extreme reading (above 70/below 30).

Fundamental Outlook
The British Manufacturing Production numbers come out today at 9:30 am GMT. The indicator tracks changes in the total output generated by the manufacturing sector and values above the forecast 0.3% usually strengthen the Pound. Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT the NIESR GDP Estimate comes out. The previous value was 0.6% and numbers above it are normally beneficial for the Pound because this estimate is usually very accurate.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

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2015.02.11 :Forex News: Geopolitical turmoil as key personalities are meeting to discuss Greece and Ukraine crises

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair had another slow day and remained confined between support and resistance after another failed attempt to break out. No major indicators were released and this contributed to the choppy price action.



Technical Outlook
A breakout is highly probable today but the direction is hard to predict considering this week’s slow movement. The levels to watch are 1.1270 as support and 1.1360 as resistance; if these are broken the pair will travel towards 1.1500 or 1.1100, depending on the initial breakout direction. Geopolitical factors will play a crucial role and the technical side will be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook
The leaders of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine will meet today in an attempt to put an end to the Ukrainian conflict. The outcome of the negotiations can have major implications on the currency market thus caution is highly recommended. The ECOFIN Meetings also take place today and the highlight will be the negotiation for the Greek debt issue. So far a conclusion hasn’t been reached and a new deal for Greece hasn’t been struck but if today we see some new developments, the Euro is likely to react swiftly.

GBP/USD

The Pound had a slow day as well and is now struggling to break resistance after a bounce at support. The GDP estimate was released 25 minutes earlier than initially scheduled but the event didn’t create a lot of movement and the same goes for manufacturing data.



Technical Outlook
Price bounced twice at 1.5200 support and is now sitting above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on both an hourly and a four-hour chart. This puts short term bias in favor of the bulls but 1.5260 resistance is still not broken so we might very well see a rebound lower. A breakout is highly probable, with the first bullish target located at 1.5315. A break of 1.5200 support will open the door for 1.5100.

Fundamental Outlook
The ECOFIN Meetings will be the day’s highlight but the United Kingdom didn’t schedule other major news releases.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

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2014.02.12 :Forex News: A strong breakout is looming. British Inflation Report ahead

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair remained inside the range yesterday as the current geopolitical situation still remains tense and no decisive action was taken.



Technical Outlook
Our view on the pair remains neutral, in anticipation of a breakout which is long overdue. The direction of this breakout will be decided by any new developments coming from Greece and Ukraine. The levels to watch are 1.1270 as support and 1.1360 resistance and considering that price is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on an hourly and four-hour chart, we slightly favor the short side.

Fundamental Outlook
U.S. Retail Sales are released at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to post a change of -0.3% compared with last month’s -0.9%. Sales made at retail levels represent a major part of overall economic activity and that’s why values that exceed expectations are usually beneficial for the US Dollar. The indicator is considered high-impact so we might get a breakout after its release.

GBP/USD

The Pound-Dollar moved stronger yesterday but we saw a sharp whipsaw once 1.5300 resistance was touched and this made trading rather difficult on the lower time frames.



Technical Outlook
What appeared to be a very strong break of 1.5260 resistance soon turned out to be just a single move which was quickly reversed at 1.5300 resistance. If the bears can keep price below 1.5260, it would mean that 1.5200 will be the next immediate target. Inflation-related data and Mark Carney’s press conference will probably decide the next short term price direction.

Fundamental Outlook
At 10:30 am GMT the Bank of England will release the Inflation Report which contains an outlook on economic performance and inflation for the next 2 years. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference at the same time, discussing the contents of the Report and we recommend caution if trading during the conference because inflation is always a sensible issue and sharp moves may be present.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

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2015.02.13 :Forex News: Broken resistance opens the door for further advances

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair finally broke out of the tight range, mostly due to a disappointing U.S. Retail Sales report which showed a -0.8% change compared with the expected -0.4%.



Technical Outlook
Although 1.1360 resistance is broken, price is likely to return in that area for a re-test, considering the overbought condition showed by the Relative Strength Index on an hourly chart. If the touch will result in a bounce higher, the next target is located at 1.1500 but a return below 1.1360 would indicate that the ranging period is still not over and will open the door for a move back into 1.1270 zone.

Fundamental Outlook
The German Gross Domestic Product is scheduled for release at 7:00 am GMT and an increase is anticipated from the previous 0.1% to 0.3%. This would strengthen the Euro since the German economy is of major importance to the entire Euro zone and the GDP is an economy’s main performance gauge.

Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT the University of Michigan will release a Consumer Sentiment survey which is expected to show a value of 98.2, almost unchanged from last month’s 98.1. Higher values are usually beneficial for the US Dollar as consumer sentiment is tightly correlated to consumer spending.

GBP/USD

Mark Carney’s speech together with the Inflation Report generated Pound strength although the event contained some mixed – even contradictory – signals regarding inflation and a potential rate cut.



Technical Outlook
The Relative Strength Index moved well above the 70 level, signaling an overbought condition of price. This means that we might see bearish retracements which will most likely find support near 1.5340 zone, followed by 1.5300. The next important resistance is located around 1.5540 but we don’t expect such a move unless surprising developments take place.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases thus price direction will be decided by technical factors and by the U.S Consumer Sentiment.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2015.02.16 :Forex News: Eurogroup Meetings and Greek debt take center stage

EUR/USD

Forex News: The German Gross Domestic Product surpassed analysts’ expectations Friday and the U.S. Consumer Sentiment survey disappointed but despite all this, the day lacked clear direction and no major advances were made.



Technical Outlook
Latest price action created minor resistance at 1.1440 and now the pair is headed towards 1.1360. Although last week was bullish, the advance is not strong and a move into support is very likely, especially if the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is broken to the downside. Overall we expect a slow day due to the lack of major economic announcements, but if new developments for the Greek debt issue take place, we will most likely see strong moves.

Fundamental Outlook
The Eurogroup Meetings take place today, attended by key personalities from the financial and political scene. The Greek debt issue will be discussed and will play an important role for today’s price direction. Keep in mind that the meetings are closed to the press but sometimes information is leaked throughout the day and an official statement is released once the meetings finish. U.S. banks will be closed, celebrating President’s Day thus no major economic indicators are released.

GBP/USD

The pair had an almost flat day Friday and neither side made any advances. U.S. consumer data came out below analysts’ expectations but this wasn’t enough to create directional movement.



Technical Outlook
If price touches 1.5420 again but the bulls cannot break it on the first try, we expect price to drop below the 50 Period Exponential Moving Average and to head towards 1.5340. A break of this level would expose 1.5300 support but we don’t expect a break of this level to happen today. Since the end of last month the pair has been in an uptrend so a bullish bounce at 1.5340 is not out of the question.

Fundamental Outlook
The day lacks British economic indicators thus price action will be driven by the technical aspect.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2015.02.17 :Forex News: Heads up for British inflation and German ZEW survey

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday’s price action was slow and the pair lacked strong directional movement as U.S. banks were closed in observance of Presidents’ Day and at least at the time of writing, a clear solution to the Greek debt problem hasn’t been reached.



Technical Outlook
The minor resistance at 1.1440 wasn’t threatened yesterday and the same is true for the support at 1.1360. For the time being the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is offering good support from a short time perspective; a clean break of this line will open the door for a touch of 1.1360 while a bounce and consequent break of 1.1440 will make 1.1500 the next target.

Fundamental Outlook
At 10:00 am GMT the German ZEW Economic Sentiment is released, showing the opinions of about 275 German analysts and professional investors regarding a 6 month economic outlook. The survey acts as a leading indicator of economic health and numbers above the anticipated 56.2 usually strengthen the Euro.

GBP/USD

The picture remains unclear for the Pound-Dollar as yesterday we saw a failed breakout, followed by a bearish move below 1.5420.



Technical Outlook
Current direction favors the bears and resistance is still holding so price is likely to continue moving down and to find support at 1.5340. If the Relative Strength Index becomes oversold by the time price touches support, we anticipate a bullish bounce and keep in mind that price is in a medium term uptrend so we might see continuation moves above 1.5420.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Consumer Price Index is released today at 9:30 and is expected to decrease to 0.3% from the previous 0.5%. The indicator is the main gauge of British inflation and usually lower numbers than analysts’ forecast are detrimental for the Pound so we might see down moves if this comes true.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2015.02.18 :Forex News: Greek issue still unsolved, Fed Meeting Minutes ahead

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the Euro weakened against the US Dollar in the first part of the session but erased some of the losses once the German ZEW came out with a better value than previous. Although analysts anticipated a stronger climb, it is still the highest in a year and this added some fuel to the single currency.



Technical Outlook
Despite the Euro strength generated by the ZEW value, the bulls couldn’t break 1.1440 and the pair started to move south once again. The Greek debt problem is still not solved and this is one of the reasons why the market is still searching for a clear direction. Today we expect another touch of 1.1360 support but our view is mostly neutral as price direction still remains heavily influenced by the Greek talks.

Fundamental Outlook
The most important event for the US Dollar is the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes scheduled at 7:00 pm GMT. It will contain details of the Fed’s latest meeting and more importantly, it can offer hints about future monetary policy direction. If this is the case, the market will react swiftly and the greenback will show strong movement.

GBP/USD

The British Consumer Price Index met analysts’ forecast, showing a change of 0.3% and this created mixed reaction. The bulls failed to threaten resistance and the bears are looking stronger for the time being.



Technical Outlook
Current momentum belongs to the bears as they managed to take price below 1.5340 and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on an hourly chart. If bearish pressure mounts, today we expect a touch of 1.5260 but 1.5300 could be a strong barrier in front of falling prices. A bounce above 1.5340 would probably generate an extended move into 1.5420.

Fundamental Outlook
At 9:30 am GMT the British Claimant Count Change is released. The anticipated figure is -25.2K and usually lower numbers are beneficial for the currency because the indicator shows how many people applied for unemployment-related benefits. At the same time the Bank of England will announce a breakdown of their latest rate votes but usually this event only creates strong movement if one or more of the MPC members changed their stance.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

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2015.02.19 :Forex News: Pound breakout identified, Euro still in a range

EUR/USD

Forex News: Before the Fed Meeting Minutes, the pair headed towards 1.1360 and the bears even managed to break this level but the Minutes generated US Dollar weakness and the pair reversed its previous movement.



Technical Outlook
The pair is still ranging and 1.1360 cannot be broken for the time being so the picture remains unclear and the technical side remains secondary to the fundamental as a solution to the Greek debt problem hasn’t been found yet. The bullish move seen when the FOMC Meeting Minutes came out is not very strong and a reversal could easily occur when and if price hits 1.1440 resistance. Until the mentioned resistance or 1.1360 support is clearly broken the pair will remain in a range.

Fundamental Outlook
The European Central Bank will release today at 12:30 pm GMT their Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts. This is a document which contains details about the reasons which influenced their latest interest rate decision and is a practice recently introduced by the ECB. If the document is more hawkish than expected, the Euro will be positively affected.

The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is the main mover for the US Dollar and is expected to increase from the previous 6.3 to 8.8, a fact which would strengthen the greenback and take the pair lower. The time of the release is 3:00 pm GMT.

GBP/USD

The British unemployment claims were fewer than analysts expected and this was a catalyst for Pound strength during the first part of yesterday’s trading session. The dovish stance of the Fed added to the climb and resistance was clearly broken.



Technical Outlook
Based on yesterday’s bullish movement we consider the minor resistance at 1.5420 to be clearly broken and we expect an extended move into the next resistance level located at 1.5540. However, this does not exclude bearish movement, considering that the Relative Strength Index is close to overbought levels; a move below 1.5420 would invalidate the break and would be a sign of bull weakness.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases thus we expect a day with price action driven by the technical aspect.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2015.02.20 :Forex News: The Greek “bubble” is about to burst. Breakout imminent

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday Germany rejected a Greek loan proposal so the Greek debt issue still remains a top priority which needs to be addressed and solved as soon as possible. The U.S. Manufacturing index disappointed and the day was characterized by ranging price action.



Technical Outlook
Lately the pair is bouncing between 1.1440 resistance and 1.1360 support and this behavior is likely to continue until a solution to the Greek issue is found. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average doesn’t do much to show us the next direction as it lacks momentum and a clear angle and the same is true for the Relative Strength Index. The only indicator with some value for recent price action is the Stochastic which follows price pretty accurately so if we were to trust it, we should expect another encounter with the resistance located at 1.1440. A break of 1.1360 would open the door for a touch of 1.1270 support.

Fundamental Outlook
France will release their Manufacturing PMI at 8:00 am GMT, with an expected figure of 49.7. A half an hour later the same indicator but for the German economy is released, with an anticipated value of 51.8; usually if the actual value of these indicators surpasses analysts’ expectations, the Euro is positively affected but sometimes their release goes unnoticed. Special attention must be paid to the Eurogroup meetings as finance ministers and other important figures meet in search of a Greek compromise.

GBP/USD

The Pound-Dollar pair had a slow day, mainly because no major British economic news was released and the U.S. indicators failed to create a lot of volatility.



Technical Outlook
Although price broke 1.5420, the bulls failed to capitalize on this break and no major advances were made yesterday. Currently price is testing the recently broken level but the bears are also showing lack of interest or strength as they didn’t manage to take price below the mentioned level. If the test results in a bounce, the first barrier is located at 1.5460 and a more important one at 1.5540. If 1.5420 is broken to the downside, the first support is located at 1.5340 but a lot will depend on the British retail sales data released today.

Fundamental Outlook
The retail sales data mentioned above is scheduled for release at 9:30 am GMT and the expected change is -0.1%, while last month we saw a 0.4% increase. Since sales made at retail levels represent a hefty part of the entire economic activity, today’s release is considered a high impact event; values above analysts’ expectations are usually beneficial for the Pound.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2015.02.23 :Forex News: Market indecision still present. Greece still in the spotlight

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the Euro briefly strengthened when news came out that an accord was reached between Greek officials and European finance ministers, but the initial rally was quickly reversed and the ranging period didn’t come to an end.



Technical Outlook
Given the latest developments our view remains neutral on the pair as long as 1.1440 is still resistance and 1.1270 is still support. From a 4-hour perspective the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is flat and both oscillators (RSI and Stochastic) lack clear direction so a technical prediction is difficult to be accurate. The Euro will be possibly affected today by more discussions between Greek and Eurogroup officials so we recommend increased caution throughout the day.

Fundamental Outlook
The German IFO Business Climate will offer insights into the opinions of about 7,000 businesses regarding current and future economic conditions. The scheduled time of release is 9:00 am GMT, the anticipated number is 107.4 and usually values which exceed analysts’ expectations are beneficial for the Euro.

GBP/USD

The British Retail Sales showed a change of -0.3% Friday and this weakened the Pound allowing the pair to move below short-term support.



Technical Outlook
After moving below 1.5420 the pair approached the level again and at the moment it shows rejection. This makes us believe that the next move will be a descent towards 1.5340 support; however an oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index would decrease the chances of a break of this support. Also, a move above 1.5420 short-term resistance would invalidate this scenario and would take the pair into 1.5460.

Fundamental Outlook
The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) will release at 11:00 am GMT the Realized Sales which is a survey of about 125 companies and is focused towards their sales volume. A higher number indicates increased economic activity and is usually beneficial for the Pound. The forecast is 42, an increase from last month’s 39 but under normal circumstances the release has a mild impact unless the actual number shows a big difference compared to the forecast.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]