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2014.12.09 :Forex Technical Analysis: Price action affected by the approaching of the Winter Holidays

EUR/USD

Forex Technical Analysis: The ECB Press Conference and the American Non Farm Payrolls were last week’s high impact events and each one of them strengthened their respective currency. Mario Draghi mentioned the ECB is not going to add further stimulus at their latest meeting and the US Dollar benefited from improved employment data.



Technical Outlook
The latest economic data favors the greenback and the pair’s bearish impulse is likely to continue throughout the week that has just begun. The support at 1.2280 rejected price the first time it was touched last week but now the bears are trying to break it again; if this attempt doesn’t result in a clear break, the pair is likely to enter a ranging period, considering the fact that the Winter Holidays are approaching and volume might drop. A break of 1.2280 would open the door for a move into the next major support located at 1.2040.

Fundamental Outlook
We have a light week ahead of us in terms of economic data but here are some of the events with potentially high impact: Monday the Eurogroup meetings take place, followed Tuesday by the ECOFIN meetings (attended by finance ministers from the EU member states). Wednesday no major events are scheduled but Thursday will be the busiest day of the week as the ECB will announce the total value of money they will create and use to provide loans to Eurozone banks. The US Retail Sales are released the same day and this can have a strong market impact as sales made at a retail level represent a hefty part of overall economic activity.

Friday the focus remains on the United States for the release of the American Producer Price Index, an indicator which shows changes in the price charged by producers for their goods and services, This indicator has inflationary implications because a higher price charged by producers will be eventually passed on to the consumer. The same day the University of Michigan will release their Consumer Sentiment survey; this is a leading indicator of consumer spending because a consumer that is confident in economic and financial conditions is likely to spend more.

GBP/USD

The pair ranged for the most part of last week but US employment numbers which came out much better than anticipated, strengthened the US Dollar and helped the bears to finish the week below support.



Technical Outlook
The support at 1.5590 was broken during the last day of last week but before we can consider this a true break and a resumption of the downtrend, we need to see a retest from below of the broken level. If it occurs, this retest will most likely be seen on the lower time frame charts like hourly or four hours. From a daily perspective the Relative Strength Index doesn’t show an extreme condition so bearish movement can continue. Bullish retracements may find support at 1.5750 while next support is located at 1.5420.

Fundamental Outlook
Similar to the Euro and US Dollar, the Pound has a slow news week ahead. Tuesday the British Manufacturing Production comes out, showing the change in the total value of output produced by manufacturers and the same day, the NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate is revealed. Although this is just an estimate, the impact can be a big one, considering that GDP is an economy’s main gauge of performance. As always, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

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2014.12.15 :Forex Technical Analysis: Last full economic week ahead of Christmas Holidays

EUR/USD

Forex Technical Analysis: Last week was mostly controlled by the bulls after the bears made another attempt to break 1.2280 support. The single bearish day was Thursday when the US Dollar strengthened on the back of a better than anticipated reading of the US Retail Sales.



Technical Outlook
Price is likely to continue on an upward path until the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on a daily chart is touched. We expect some bearish movement to happen there as the moving average will probably offer resistance. A move past this line will make 1.2600 the immediate target for the pair, while a bounce lower will take price back into 1.2360 support. The winter holidays are approaching and volume is likely to drop, making price action irregular and harder to anticipate.

Fundamental Outlook
The French and German Flash Manufacturing PMIs are released Tuesday, showing the opinions of purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector regarding business and economic conditions. The same day the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey is released; the indicator is derived from the opinions of German professional investors and analysts regarding economic health and usually has a high impact on the Euro.

Wednesday is the week’s most important day for the US Dollar as the US Consumer Price Index is released, followed later in the day by the Fed Interest Rate which will be accompanied by a FOMC Statement and a FOMC Press Conference. Almost always this cluster of events creates strong moves so caution is recommended.

The German IFO Business Climate, another report focused on economic conditions, is Thursday’s main event while Friday will be a slow day in terms of economic releases

GBP/USD

Similar to the Euro, the Pound gained against the greenback and the pair had a bullish week following a failed attempt to break support. The week was lackluster in terms of economic releases for the Pound.



Technical Outlook
The support at 1.5590 was tested several times but the bears failed to break it decisively. This shows that we are dealing with a very strong level which may push price higher for a stronger retracement. However, the resistance at 1.5750 is also strong and it can push price lower, especially considering the fact that we are still in a downtrend. If price moves above resistance without any more tests or bounces, it will probably continue upwards for an encounter with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is scheduled to speak Tuesday during a Press Conference focused on the BoE Stability Report released earlier the same day. The conference will be followed by the release of the British Consumer Price Index which is the main gauge of inflation and holds a great importance to short and medium term price action.

Wednesday the result of the Monetary Policy Committee votes is made public, showing if the members’ stance regarding the interest rate has changed. The Claimant Count Change is released the same day, showing how many people applied for social help related to unemployment. The last important event of the week is the British Retail Sales, scheduled Thursday and as always, the US events will have a strong and direct impact on the pair’s movement.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

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2014.12.29 :Forex News: Forex Technical Analysis: The week between years comes with low volume and scarce economic releases

EUR/USD

Forex Technical Analysis: Last week price action was heavily influenced by the Christmas Holiday and the market was paused during the 25th of December. All week price suffered from low volume and irregular movement.



Technical Outlook
The irregular price action seen last week is likely to continue this week as the New Year will be the main concern of most traders around the world. The pair is in a downtrend, trading below the 50 days Exponential Moving Average and below the resistance at 1.2280. The first support is located at 1.2040 but probably we won’t see a break this week as the market will be thin for most of the period. Our bias is neutral considering that this week the year changes and all pairs will be affected.

Fundamental Outlook
As expected we have very few economic releases this week; here are the most important: Tuesday the US Consumer Confidence survey is released, showing the opinion of about 5,000 American households about current economic conditions, but also their expectations for the near future.

Wednesday German Banks will be closed in observance of the New Year’s Eve and the US Unemployment Claims will be the day’s single notable event. Thursday is the first day of 2015 and the market will be closed, price will come to a stop and no economic indicators will be released, while Friday is another slow day with the only important event being the release of the US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index.

GBP/USD

Last week was mostly controlled by the bears on the back of disappointing British economic data but soon Christmas made its presence known, volume dropped and the pair came to a stop Thursday, while Friday’s trading session lacked strong movement.



Technical Outlook
Some movement is likely to be seen throughout the week but we don’t expect any substantial advances as the New Year will take center stage and volume will probably remain low. The important levels to watch this week are located at 1.5590 (resistance) 1.5485 (support), while price behavior at the current level (1.5540) will probably determine the next direction. Our bias is neutral for this pair as well, and we expect to see irregular movement; keep in mind that Thursday the market will be closed.

Fundamental Outlook
The only noteworthy British release is the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, scheduled Friday. The indicator is a survey of purchasing managers focused on the business conditions in the manufacturing sector and higher numbers are beneficial for the Pound.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

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FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: U.S. Employment data in the spotlight as the Dollar reaches new highs
Posted → Weekly Commentary

EUR/USD

Forex Technical Analysis: Last week the Euro weakened the most in more than 4 years against the US Dollar; a big role in the drop was played by the fact that the ECB talked about large scale bond purchases and ECB President Mario Draghi mentioned that he cannot rule our deflation.



Technical Outlook

We saw another bearish week as the pair managed to move below the important support at 1.2040. The Relative Strength Index on a Daily chart moved below the 30 level and this shows an overextended condition, signaling that a retracement is likely to occur. The same condition is shown by the Stochastic indicator (11,6,6) which is moving well below the 20 level. First support is located at 1.1875 (better seen on a Weekly chart) but during the week we expect pullbacks above 1.2040.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Preliminary CPI is released Monday, showing the state of German inflation which is an important part of European inflation. This will be followed Wednesday by the European CPI Flash Estimate which offers an early look into European inflation; since the ECB is struggling to raise inflation levels, these releases will have a high impact on the Euro. A privately owned company (Automatic Data Processing) will release the same day the Non Farm Employment Change which is a report that tries to mimic the Government data released 2 days later. Later the same day the FOMC Meeting Minutes are released, showing details about Fed’s latest meeting.

Friday the most important U.S. jobs related data comes out: the Non Farm Employment Change (also known as Non Farm Payrolls). This report shows how many new jobs were created during the previous month and almost always the impact on the Dollar is huge as more jobs are indicative of increased consumer spending in the near future.

GBP/USD

The pair moved substantially lower last week as the British economy showed clear signs of contraction, but also because market participants speculate about a potential U.S. rate increase early in the year.



Technical Outlook

Last week the pair experienced a huge drop and such a move is likely to trigger some sort of bullish reaction in the form of a retracement. This retracement can find resistance at the recently broken level of 1.5420 but the first lower target is located at 1.5260 which acted as strong support in the past (better seen on a Weekly chart).

Fundamental Outlook

The British Construction and Services PMIs are released Monday and Tuesday respectively, followed Thursday by the Official Bank Rate. Lately a lot of speculation is surrounding the British interest rate and although a change is not expected, the event is likely to generate strong movement. The last Pound-affecting event of the week is Friday’s Manufacturing Production release which shows the total value of output produced by the British manufacturing sector.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 6-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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2015.01.12 :Forex News: Forex Technical Analysis: Bears still in control but bullish pressure increases

EUR/USD

Forex Technical Analysis: Last week belonged to the bears on the back of lower inflation numbers posted by the European economy and a hawkish Fed that hinted towards a potential rate hike during the first part of the year.



Technical Outlook

The pair moved below 1.1875, creating the fourth consecutive bearish week. Both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are oversold on a Daily chart and are starting to move upwards, while on a Weekly chart there is still no sign of bullish movement of the two indicators. The most important levels for this week’s price action are 1.1875 and 1.2040 to the upside and the low at 1.1750 followed by 1.1640 to the downside; the picture remains bearish, although retracements are still due.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday and Tuesday are calm days for the Euro and US Dollar as no major indicators are released. Wednesday the U.S. Retail Sales numbers come out and the Dollar is likely to be strongly affected as the indicator is the main gauge of consumer spending which in turn is a vital part of the economy.

Thursday the American Producer Price Index is released; this indicator shows changes in the price charged by producers for their goods and has inflationary implications. The same day the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index comes out; this is a leading indicator of economic health derived from the opinions of about 250 manufacturers from the Philadelphia district. Friday’s main event is the release of the American Consumer Price Index which is the main gauge of inflation and usually has a hefty impact on the Dollar. The same day, the University of Michigan will release a Preliminary version of their Consumer Sentiment survey.

GBP/USD

The pair remained in a strong downtrend as price moved below support and the bears maintained their control for the fourth week in a row. The British economy posted worse than expected numbers and this contributed to the drop.



Technical Outlook

During the week ahead we expect a move into the recently broken level at 1.5260. A bounce there would make 1.5035 the immediate target, followed by the psychological and technical support at 1.5000. A break of 1.5260 would open the door for a bullish retracement close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

This week lacks major British announcements and the only important indicator comes out Tuesday in the form of the Consumer Price Index which is the main gauge of inflation. As always, the pair will be directly influenced by the U.S. data released throughout the week.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

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2014.01.19 :Forex Technical Analysis: ECB to decide the next direction of the shared currency

EUR/USD

Forex Technical Analysis: Last week the markets were shaken by Swiss National Bank’s sudden and unexpected decision to remove the EUR/CHF floor which caped the pair at 1.20. As a result the Swiss Franc appreciated tremendously against its peers and the market showed unprecedented volatility.



Technical Outlook
On Daily and Weekly charts, both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are indicating an oversold condition of the pair, but considering the latest developments, the technical side is less important than the fundamental. The next potential support is located at 1.1380 but the pair last visited this level in 2003 so the importance of this level cannot be assessed. As for resistance, the first level of interest is 1.1640, followed by 1.1875. The environment remains strongly bearish, with retracements expected.

Fundamental Outlook
Monday U.S. Banks will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Day and no major indicators are scheduled. Tuesday’s main event is the release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, a survey derived from the opinions of about 275 German analysts and investors regarding their 6-month economic outlook.

Wednesday is a slow day as far as U.S. and European economic releases are concerned but Thursday will probably be the week’s most volatile day due to the ECB Meeting. The interest rate decision will be announced and more importantly, the ECB will announce whether they will start a government-bond buying program or not. The market already expects the ECB to introduce such a stimulus and if this proves wrong, the reaction will be mixed.

Friday the French and German Manufacturing PMIs are released, offering insights into the state of the manufacturing sectors in these countries.

GBP/USD

The Pound – US Dollar pair wasn’t affected strongly by Swiss National Bank’s decision and for the entire week, price action was mixed, without a lot of directional movement.



Technical Outlook
The pair is caped to the upside by 1.5260 resistance and to the downside by 1.5035 support. This week we expect a breakout which could take price into the next support located at 1.4830 or into the resistance offered by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Both the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index are hovering near their oversold levels, a fact which could help the bulls if they attempt to break resistance.

Fundamental Outlook
Wednesday the British Claimant Count Change is released, showing how many people applied for unemployment related welfare. A higher number indicates increased levels of unemployment and is usually detrimental for the currency. The same day the votes on the latest BoE interest rate decision are made public but this event usually creates strong movement only if one or more MPC members have changed their stances regarding the need for a rate adjustment. The final British event of the week is the release of the Retail Sales scheduled Friday. Since sales made at a retail level represent a big part of overall economic activity, higher numbers are viewed as beneficial for the currency.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

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2015.02.09 :Forex Technical Analysis: Resistance tested. Bounce or break scenarios in play

EUR/USD

Forex Technical Analysis: Last week’s price action was confined in a range, with all daily moves reversed completely the next day. American jobs data which surpassed analyst’s expectations puts the latest momentum in the hands of sellers.



Technical Outlook
All bullish moves were capped by 1.1500 resistance zone and all bearish moves encountered strong support around 1.1300. Both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic moved out of oversold territory and this means that now further moves south can occur easier than before. However, before that can happen, the Stochastic should cross downwards, agreeing with the Relative Strength Index. A break of 1.1300 would open the door for another encounter with the zone around 1.1100, while a break of 1.1500 would generate a move into 1.1640 and into the 50 days Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook
Monday is the first day of the G20 Meetings which take place in Istanbul. Members of the 20 member states meet in order to discuss a range of economic and political issues and this can have an effect on the currency market so we might see some strong movement. Tuesday the meetings continue but generally the day is calm and no major indicators are released.

Wednesday the Eurogroup Meetings take place and are attended by key personalities from the Euro area, including the President of the European Central Bank. Again, volatility can be present, depending on the matters discussed.

Thursday’s main event is the release of the U.S. Retail Sales; the indicator tracks changes in levels of sales made at retail outlets and is considered to have a high-impact on the US Dollar as retail sales are an important part of consumer spending. Friday the German Gross Domestic Product is released and the University of Michigan will make public their Consumer Sentiment survey. Both indicators have the potential to be strong market movers, especially if the actual values will be different than analysts’ expectations.

GBP/USD

The pair had a bullish week on the back of positive economic data coming out of the United Kingdom. Some of the Pound’s gains were erased later in the week when the U.S. Jobs report was released.



Technical Outlook
The pair was in need of a bullish pullback such as the one seen last week since the downtrend seemed exhausted and new lows weren’t printed in a relatively long while. The current level at 1.5260, combined with the 50 days Exponential Moving Average will offer good resistance and in fact rejection was already seen so we expect bearish moves once the Stochastic crosses downwards. First major support is located at 1.4950, while resistance sits at 1.5750 but we could have a slow week, with neither target being reached.

Fundamental Outlook
Tuesday the British Manufacturing Production numbers come out and will be followed later in the day by the NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate. Although this is just an estimated value of the GDP, it usually has a strong impact on the Pound because it usually has high accuracy.

Thursday the Bank of England will release their Inflation Report which contains an outlook for inflation and economic performance over the next 2 years. BoE Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference the same day, discussing the contents of the Report and this is likely to be the day’s main market mover. As always, the U.S. events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2015.02.16 :Forex Technical Analysis: Broken resistance marks the end of sideways movement?

EUR/USD

Forex Technical Analysis: Last week the economic data which came out of the United States was disappointing and this allowed the Euro to climb against the US Dollar but the week had only one day when the pair moved strongly and overall price action was slow.



Technical Outlook
Price is still confined in a tight range created by 1.1300 support and 1.1500 resistance. Considering the fact that last week only one day had decent movement and price was mostly flat, we expect a clean break-out this week but the direction will depend mostly on the fundamental aspect. The 50 day Exponential Moving Average is still angled downwards and price is trading below it but this doesn’t exclude a bullish breakout so for the week ahead keep an eye on 1.1500. A break of this level will probably generate an extended move into 1.1640 while a break of 1.1300 will make 1.1100 the next weekly target.

Fundamental Outlook
Monday the Eurogroup meetings take place and US banks will be closed, celebrating Presidents’ Day so there are increased chances of irregular volatility. Tuesday the main event is the release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment which is a survey of about 275 German professional investors and analysts, focused on a 6 month outlook regarding German economic growth.

Wednesday is an important day for the US Dollar as the FOMC Meeting Minutes come out, offering insights into Fed’s latest meeting and possibly hints about future monetary policy direction. Thursday economic releases are scarce, with U.S. Manufacturing data being the only notable indicator, while Friday, France and Germany will announce their Manufacturing PMIs which act as leading indicators of economic health.

GBP/USD

The Bank of England increased economic growth forecasts and this coupled with weak U.S. data generated a rally above resistance. However, for the better part of the week price ranged.



Technical Outlook
The pair moved above 1.5260 resistance and above the 50 day Exponential Moving Average, making the medium-term outlook bullish. We anticipate a climb into 1.5550 resistance zone but a break of this level is less likely considering that the pair is in a clear downtrend. If during the week the Relative Strength Index will reach overbought levels, the chances of bearish moves will increase.

Fundamental Outlook
British inflation data comes out Tuesday in the form of the Consumer Price Index, followed Wednesday by the Claimant Count Change which will show how many people applied for unemployment related social help. The same day the Official Bank Rate votes come out, showing if some of the MPC members changed their stance on the interest rate value. The final British release of the week comes Friday in the form of the Retail Sales; the indicator shows the change in the total value of sales made at retail outlets and is considered a high impact release.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]