FXopenMy
25th April 2016, 11:55 AM
[RealECN][17,April,2014] Komentar Forex Hari Ini : USDJPY
A dovish Fed rhetorical is what the USD/JPY market needed, as this reaffirm that risk appetite may be returning for the second quarter of this year. Despite an improvement in the USD/JPY fundamentals, the technicals underlying this market continued to remain weak as analyst believed that the USD/JPY market lacks follow through momentum.
Technical Commentary;
Since the beginning of this week trading session, the market observed a moderate rally in the USD/JPY pair as momentum build up for a rally that allow the pair to break out from the 102.00 level. After taking out the 102.11 level at 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, the next target for the pair to advance to, is set at 102.60 at 38.2% expansion. Once this target can be broken through, this would expose the USD/JPY to the 103.00 at 50% Fibonacci expansion. It is also important to note that the USD/JPY market has been trading in a narrow medium term congestion since the beginning of this week trading session, therefore entry point at this level would deliver a lower risk/reward profile. This view point is also validated on the RSI which is also known as a momentum oscillator; over the past few weeks, the RSI mapped on the USD/JPY pair, indicates that bullish momentum failed to trade and hold at the 60.00 bullish price value. Currently the bullish bias has levelled off into a neutral territory as the RSI dip below the 55.00 price value. The CCI which is also known as the commodity channel index also confirm the view point that this intra-week bullish momentum is not very sustainable, as the USD/JPY pair opens today’s Sydney trading session flashing strong sell signal on the CCI.
According to the SSI which is commonly known as the speculative Sentiment Index, crowd sentiment on this cross continued to remain bullish. Every time the USD/JPY market corrected to the downside, net retail traders continued to buy into long greenback position against the Japanese yen. Currently there are 3 net long greenback positions outstanding for every 1 short greenback position taken by retail traders. Analyst would suggest a contrarian stand point to this crowd sentiment and favours further long term USD/JPY weakness; this largely come when the pair is trading near its medium term support level. Unless the USD/JPY cross can break out and hold above the critical 103.35 resistance level, then this bearish outlook on the pair continued to hold strong.
Analysis of a collection of technical indicators on the hourly time interval on the USD/JPY cross is suggestive of a temporary bearish market sentiment and recommends short positions on the greenback. The USD/JPY cross opens today’s Sydney trading session inching closer to the established Fibonacci support at 102.19 and the Fibonacci Resistance is set at 102.29. The pair began this week’s trading session on a bull run supported by weak-moderate momentum.Tuesday Chinese GDP number and industrial print painted a mix outlook on the world second largest economy. However the market perceived this data as rosy to a certain extend and believed that risk appetite continued to be the current prevailing theme. This stand point was also validated by the minutes release from Janet Yellen whom reiterated to the market that the US benchmark rate will continued to remain at record lows for an extended period of time. This helps supported the equity market and since trend behaviour in the equity market is highly correlated to the USD/JPY cross; it largely justified this week’s bull run. It was during yesterdays’ trading session did the market observed the USD/JPY pair breaking out from the 200 Days SMA. The significance of the 200 Days SMA cannot be understated as 200 Days SMA contained more or less of 1 year’s worth of trading data. Since the USD/JPY cross opened today’s trading session above the 200 Days, this is very indicative of a long term bullish outlook on the cross moving forward. However this bearish view is not validated on the short term moving average front as well as the pair open’s today’s trading session above the 30 but below the 5,10 and 20 Days SMA which is indicative of a sell recommendation on the moving average front.
Fundamental Commentary;
Fed Chair Janet Yellen minutes release had a profound effect on the equity market. By monitoring the behaviours and pattern of the S&P 500 and the Nikkei 225, this can provide insight to the pattern on the USD/JPY market. Yellen’s remarks has given the equity market the re-bounce momentum observed over the last few days of trading. The underlying component of this bullish momentum in Yellen’s comments included her acknowledgment of the alteration made in the Fed’s forward guidance mandate will not translate to a shift in Fed’s policy. Also moving forward Fed’s policy will not be dictated by just one singular economic indicator. Also long term outlook on the inflation growth continued to remain strong, while the Fed believed that a slower inflation growth is a bigger threat than rapid inflation growth. The Fed also touched on the mix picture painted by the labour market. Overall this dovish rhetorical reaffirms Janet stand point with regard to monetary policy and her effort to remain accommodative which allows the USD/JPY market to feed on the return of a strong risk appetite in the market place. Despite yesterday’s disappointing US housing print with building permits MoM contracting by 2.4% when the market forecast an expansion by 0.6% and building permit print ticks at 0.990M below expectation of a 1.008M, the USD/JPY shrugged off this news and continued to be supported above the 102.00 level.
Across the Pacific in Japan, BOJ governor Kuroda continued to stand aside with regard to implementing new stimulus program. The Bank believed that the economy has spare capacity to absorbed the consumption tax that was hiked at the beginning of April. Therefore monitoring the performance of the Nikkei 225 is vital in gauging whether a new catalyst can come into play to encourage the BOJ to become more accommodative. An optimistic Kuroda on the economy would translate to the equity market struggling to perform in the long run, this would also prove to be detrimental on the USD/JPY market as well.
https://fbcdn-sphotos-e-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-frc3/t1.0-9/s480x480/10268708_536019369844162_4393429129904536224_n.png
=============
Tolong buka http://www.realecn.com dulu.
Coba klik "Open Demo Account" (http://realecn.com/trading_platform.html).
Jangan bimbang itu hanya demo aja.
================================================== =====
Email : [email protected]
Homepage : http://www.realecn.com
Facebook : https://www.facebook.com/realecn.indonesia</div></div></div>
A dovish Fed rhetorical is what the USD/JPY market needed, as this reaffirm that risk appetite may be returning for the second quarter of this year. Despite an improvement in the USD/JPY fundamentals, the technicals underlying this market continued to remain weak as analyst believed that the USD/JPY market lacks follow through momentum.
Technical Commentary;
Since the beginning of this week trading session, the market observed a moderate rally in the USD/JPY pair as momentum build up for a rally that allow the pair to break out from the 102.00 level. After taking out the 102.11 level at 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, the next target for the pair to advance to, is set at 102.60 at 38.2% expansion. Once this target can be broken through, this would expose the USD/JPY to the 103.00 at 50% Fibonacci expansion. It is also important to note that the USD/JPY market has been trading in a narrow medium term congestion since the beginning of this week trading session, therefore entry point at this level would deliver a lower risk/reward profile. This view point is also validated on the RSI which is also known as a momentum oscillator; over the past few weeks, the RSI mapped on the USD/JPY pair, indicates that bullish momentum failed to trade and hold at the 60.00 bullish price value. Currently the bullish bias has levelled off into a neutral territory as the RSI dip below the 55.00 price value. The CCI which is also known as the commodity channel index also confirm the view point that this intra-week bullish momentum is not very sustainable, as the USD/JPY pair opens today’s Sydney trading session flashing strong sell signal on the CCI.
According to the SSI which is commonly known as the speculative Sentiment Index, crowd sentiment on this cross continued to remain bullish. Every time the USD/JPY market corrected to the downside, net retail traders continued to buy into long greenback position against the Japanese yen. Currently there are 3 net long greenback positions outstanding for every 1 short greenback position taken by retail traders. Analyst would suggest a contrarian stand point to this crowd sentiment and favours further long term USD/JPY weakness; this largely come when the pair is trading near its medium term support level. Unless the USD/JPY cross can break out and hold above the critical 103.35 resistance level, then this bearish outlook on the pair continued to hold strong.
Analysis of a collection of technical indicators on the hourly time interval on the USD/JPY cross is suggestive of a temporary bearish market sentiment and recommends short positions on the greenback. The USD/JPY cross opens today’s Sydney trading session inching closer to the established Fibonacci support at 102.19 and the Fibonacci Resistance is set at 102.29. The pair began this week’s trading session on a bull run supported by weak-moderate momentum.Tuesday Chinese GDP number and industrial print painted a mix outlook on the world second largest economy. However the market perceived this data as rosy to a certain extend and believed that risk appetite continued to be the current prevailing theme. This stand point was also validated by the minutes release from Janet Yellen whom reiterated to the market that the US benchmark rate will continued to remain at record lows for an extended period of time. This helps supported the equity market and since trend behaviour in the equity market is highly correlated to the USD/JPY cross; it largely justified this week’s bull run. It was during yesterdays’ trading session did the market observed the USD/JPY pair breaking out from the 200 Days SMA. The significance of the 200 Days SMA cannot be understated as 200 Days SMA contained more or less of 1 year’s worth of trading data. Since the USD/JPY cross opened today’s trading session above the 200 Days, this is very indicative of a long term bullish outlook on the cross moving forward. However this bearish view is not validated on the short term moving average front as well as the pair open’s today’s trading session above the 30 but below the 5,10 and 20 Days SMA which is indicative of a sell recommendation on the moving average front.
Fundamental Commentary;
Fed Chair Janet Yellen minutes release had a profound effect on the equity market. By monitoring the behaviours and pattern of the S&P 500 and the Nikkei 225, this can provide insight to the pattern on the USD/JPY market. Yellen’s remarks has given the equity market the re-bounce momentum observed over the last few days of trading. The underlying component of this bullish momentum in Yellen’s comments included her acknowledgment of the alteration made in the Fed’s forward guidance mandate will not translate to a shift in Fed’s policy. Also moving forward Fed’s policy will not be dictated by just one singular economic indicator. Also long term outlook on the inflation growth continued to remain strong, while the Fed believed that a slower inflation growth is a bigger threat than rapid inflation growth. The Fed also touched on the mix picture painted by the labour market. Overall this dovish rhetorical reaffirms Janet stand point with regard to monetary policy and her effort to remain accommodative which allows the USD/JPY market to feed on the return of a strong risk appetite in the market place. Despite yesterday’s disappointing US housing print with building permits MoM contracting by 2.4% when the market forecast an expansion by 0.6% and building permit print ticks at 0.990M below expectation of a 1.008M, the USD/JPY shrugged off this news and continued to be supported above the 102.00 level.
Across the Pacific in Japan, BOJ governor Kuroda continued to stand aside with regard to implementing new stimulus program. The Bank believed that the economy has spare capacity to absorbed the consumption tax that was hiked at the beginning of April. Therefore monitoring the performance of the Nikkei 225 is vital in gauging whether a new catalyst can come into play to encourage the BOJ to become more accommodative. An optimistic Kuroda on the economy would translate to the equity market struggling to perform in the long run, this would also prove to be detrimental on the USD/JPY market as well.
https://fbcdn-sphotos-e-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-frc3/t1.0-9/s480x480/10268708_536019369844162_4393429129904536224_n.png
=============
Tolong buka http://www.realecn.com dulu.
Coba klik "Open Demo Account" (http://realecn.com/trading_platform.html).
Jangan bimbang itu hanya demo aja.
================================================== =====
Email : [email protected]
Homepage : http://www.realecn.com
Facebook : https://www.facebook.com/realecn.indonesia</div></div></div>