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2014.01.28 :Forex News: UK’s Gross Domestic Product – a huge event for the Pound

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair remained between support and resistance yesterday and no major moves took place although the German Ifo Business Climate was better than anticipated and the US New Home Sales posted lower numbers.

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Technical Outlook
Today we anticipate a break of either the support located at 1.3650 or the resistance located at 1.3710 but the direction will be highly dependent on the economic data which will be announced by the United States. The latest momentum belongs to the bulls but 1.3710 couldn’t be broken immediately after the initial impulse so the strength of the buyers is somewhat reduced.

Fundamental Outlook
AT 1:30 pm GMT the US Durable Goods Orders are announced and their value is expected to decrease to 1.9% from the previous 3.4%. Goods with a life expectancy of at least three years are considered “durable” and usually these types of goods require a larger investment from the part of the buyer and are purchased when the economy is expanding. Better than expected values have the potential to strengthen the US Dollar. The second important event of the day is the release of the US Consumer Confidence scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT and expected to increase slightly from 78.1 to 78.3. This is a leading indicator of consumer spending and usually strengthens the greenback if better results are posted.

GBP/USD

The Pound had a bullish day yesterday, strengthening considerably during yesterday’s trading session but 1.6600 resistance was not broken so the uptrend is not resumed.

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Technical Outlook
Today’s price action will be heavily influenced by fundamental factors and the direction will be decided by the value of the UK Gross Domestic Product. The levels to watch for are 1.6600 as resistance and 1.6440 as support.

Fundamental Outlook
The most anticipated event of the day is the release of United Kingdom’s Gross Domestic Product scheduled at 09:30 am GMT. The GDP is an economy’s main performance gauge and can strengthen the currency substantially if it shows good results. Today’s release is has an added importance because a big increase is anticipated, from the previous 1.9% to 2.8%, a fact which would take the pair higher if it comes true.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.01.29 :Forex News: FOMC Statement � the day�s market mover

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday�s trading session started on a bearish note and support appeared to be broken but a worse than anticipated value of the US Durable Goods Orders weakened the US Dollar and created a sharp reversal.

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Technical Outlook
The pair is still trading between 1.3650 support and 1.3710 resistance but yesterday�s failed attempt at breaking support may result in a bounce higher for another encounter with resistance and a potential continuation of last week�s bullish impulse. The FOMC statement is the day�s market mover and we might experience ranging price action, without a clear direction until the time of its release.

Fundamental Outlook
The FOMC Statement is the most important event of the day and comes out late at 7:00 pm GMT, together with the Federal Funds Rate which is not expected to change from the current 0.25%. The Statement will contain important insights about the reasons which stood behind the rate vote and also an economic outlook which may offer hints about future rates. Discussions about the monetary stimulus program will most likely generate very strong movement in the market so we recommend caution if trading at the time.

GBP/USD

United Kingdom�s Gross Domestic Product met expectations yesterday, coming out with a value of 2.8% but the event created very difficult to trade price action, reversing the direction several times in a short while.

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Technical Outlook
The strong resistance created at 1.6600 was touched yesterday but price was pushed lower signifying that the power of the bulls is starting to fade. However, we are still in a medium-term uptrend so moves to the upside are very possible. We favor slightly the down side but acknowledge the fact that price action today will be heavily influenced by the FOMC Statement.

Fundamental Outlook
Today at 12:15 pm GMT, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will speak at the Scottish Council for Development and Industry luncheon in Edinburgh; almost all his public speeches generate volatility in the market, depending on the matters discussed so we recommend caution at the time of the event. Of course the FOMC Statement will strongly affect the pair as well.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.01.30 :Forex News: Fed decides to cut QE value � lower prices anticipated EUR/USD Forex News: Yesterday was a pretty active day and even before the FOMC Statement came out, we experienced a sharp reversal. The statement showed the Fed decided to cut the value of the Quantitative Easing (QE) from $75B to $65B and this created erratic movement with a lot of sharp reversals. http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/2014.01.30-Fed-decides-to-cut-QE-value-lower-prices-anticipated-pic-1-1024x477.png Technical Outlook Although at the time of the FOMC Statement price reversed numerous times (visible on the lower time frame charts), the US Dollar will probably strengthen during the next days and we anticipate a move lower, into the support located 1.3550. This distance will not be traveled in one day and the first level of importance to the downside is 1.3603, yesterday�s low. To the upside, 1.3710 remains confirmed resistance. Fundamental Outlook The German Consumer Price Index is released at 1:00 pm GMT with an anticipated increase from the previous 1.4% to 1.5%. This is the most important gauge of inflation and the German economy is one of the most important among the Euro Zone states so the indicator has the potential to strongly influence the Euro; higher values usually strengthen the single currency. At 1:30 pm GMT an even more important event is scheduled: the release of the US Advance Gross Domestic Product which is expected to drop from the previous 4.1% to 3.3%. The Gross Domestic Product shows the overall performance of the economy so lower values are detrimental for the currency. GBP/USD Before the FOMC Statement the pair touched resistance once again, without breaking it and the actual event didn�t generate substantial moves to either side. http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/2014.01.30-Fed-decides-to-cut-QE-value-lower-prices-anticipated-pic2-1024x477.png Technical Outlook The pair did move lower yesterday after another test of the resistance located at 1.6600 but the effect of the QE trimming is probably going to be seen during the days to come. US Dollar strength may generate an extended move to the south, with the first target being 1.6440. Resistance is still located at 1.6600, followed by the year�s high at 1.6667. Fundamental Outlook At 09:30 the Net Lending to Individuals is released by the UK, showing the change in the value of loans issued to customers. It is a medium-impact indicator but values above the anticipated 1.9B may strengthen the Pound. The release of the US GDP will affect the pair as well. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market. Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207). Skype : gdmfxindonesia Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.01.27 :Forex News: Support levels ahead � retracements anticipated

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the German Consumer Price Index showed a decrease to 1.3% from the previous 1.4% and this fact, combined with the Fed decision to reduce the QE value generated a totally bearish day for the pair.

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Technical Outlook
Although we anticipated a move lower and a touch of 1.3550 support, we didn�t expect this move to be so quick and the entire distance to be traveled in a single day. At the moment price is testing 1.3550 support but the Relative Strength Index is showing an oversold condition on an hourly chart as well as on a four hour chart and we believe that a retracement is in order before any advances to the down side can be made. Of course, a decisive break of support will probably trigger additional bearish movement.

Fundamental Outlook
The Consumer Price Index for the entire Euro Zone will be released today at 10:00 am GMT and is anticipated to increase from the current 0.8% to 0.9%, a fact which would strengthen the Euro. However, because the German CPI was released a day before, today�s event may have a limited impact, especially if the actual value will not be a surprising one.

GBP/USD

The effects of the US monetary stimulus reduction were seen throughout yesterday�s trading session and the pair dropped on the back of a stronger US Dollar. Overall it was a day with clear direction and no surprising whipsaws or reversals.

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Technical Outlook
Yesterday�s bearish impulse brought the pair close to the support located at 1.6440 but a break didn�t occur and the bearish momentum faded away. If today the pair will touch this support once again without breaking it, we anticipate moves higher, especially if the Relative Strength Index will cross the oversold level. A break of 1.6440 to the down side would mean an important victory for the bears and may generate an extended move south.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn�t schedule any major economic indicator releases for today so price action will be probably driven by the technical aspect of the market.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.02.03 :Forex News: Oversold conditions signal a potential retracement

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the pair continued to drop, without the anticipated retracement higher, partly due to a lower than anticipated Euro Zone Consumer Price Index but the main reason was US Dollar strength generated by the trimming of the bond buying value.

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Technical Outlook
On a four hour chart the Relative Strength Index is indicating a severe oversold condition and the bearish move is overextended. Based on these factors, we believe today price will climb but the medium term control belongs to the bears and probably 1.3550 will not be broken to the upside if price reaches it. To the down side, the first support is represented by 1.3400.

Fundamental Outlook
At 3:00 pm GMT the US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers� Index is released, showing the opinions of about 400 managers regarding the business conditions in the manufacturing sector. The expected number is 56.2, a decrease from the previous 57.0 and usually higher numbers strengthen the US Dollar, taking the pair lower.

GBP/USD

The US Dollar continued to strengthen Friday against the Pound but no spectacular developments took place and support is still holding.

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Technical Outlook
The support located at 1.6440 was touched once again Friday and price even crawled below it but at the moment the Relative Strength Index is close to an oversold condition and retracements higher are a distinct possibility. However, we anticipate a break of the mentioned support once a retracement is complete and the oversold condition is cleared.

Fundamental Outlook
United Kingdom�s Manufacturing PMI is released at 09:30 am GMT, with a slight decrease anticipated from the previous 57.3 to 57.1. The survey is derived from the opinions of about 600 purchasing managers from the manufacturing industry and acts as a leading indicator of economic health so better than anticipated numbers will most likely strengthen the Pound. Of course, the US Manufacturing PMI released later in the day will have a direct impact on the pair.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.02.04 :Forex News: The US Dollar tries to drive its counterparts lower

EUR/USD

Forex News: The anticipated retracement occurred during yesterday�s trading session and the pair climbed on the back of a worse than expected American Manufacturing PMI which posted a value of 51.3 while the forecast was 56.2.

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Technical Outlook
We consider yesterday�s move up just a needed retracement which cleared the oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index and made lower moves possible. We favor the short side and we consider the pair�s next target to be 1.3400 but a touch of 1.3550 is possible before this target can be reached.

Fundamental Outlook
The only notable event is the release of the US Factory Orders which are expected to drop from the previous 1.8% to -1.1%. The event is scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT and better than expected values are beneficial for the US Economy.

GBP/USD

Both the US and UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers� Indexes were released yesterday with worse than anticipated values but the pair dropped nonetheless and the entire day was controlled by the bears.

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Technical Outlook
The Relative Strength Index is now signaling a severe oversold condition of the pair and we believe that a move higher is in order before price can go lower. The current level of 1.6315 reversed the pair�s bearish movement on several other occasions and some reaction is likely to be seen today. Once a retracement is complete, the lower target is represented by the important 1.6250 support.

Fundamental Outlook
Today at 09:30 am GMT the United Kingdom will release the Construction Purchasing Managers� Index which is a survey derived from the opinions of about 170 purchasing managers from the Construction sector. It is also a leading indicator of economic health and better numbers than the expected 61.6 can strengthen the Pound and take the pair higher.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.02.05 : Forex News: Important developments expected for both pairs

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair had a mixed trading session, mostly because no major economic indicators were released. Price moved slowly to the down side but the previous low was not broken so the US Dollar didn�t make significant advances against its counterpart.

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Technical Outlook
We maintain our bearish stance and anticipate a move lower towards the important support located at 1.3400. The resistance at 1.3550 was still not touched so price can move into that zone before dropping and a lot will depend on the economic indicators released today.

Fundamental Outlook
At 10:00 am GMT the Euro Zone Retail Sales are released and anticipated to change from the previous 1.4% to -0.7%; such a decrease would weaken the Euro since sales made at a retail level are crucial for economy and represent the major part of consumer spending. Later in the day, at 1:15 pm GMT, Automatic Data Processing, Inc. will release the Non Farm Employment Change, providing an early situation of the jobs market in the United States. A decrease is anticipated from the previous 238K to 191K but this indicator is released by a private company and has a much milder impact than the Government situation which will be released 2 days later.

GBP/USD

The pair dropped in close vicinity of the support located at 1.6250 but a better than expected value of the British Construction Purchasing Managers� Index strengthened the Pound and drove the pair higher.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2014.02.05-Important-developments-expected-for-both-pairs-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
The Relative Strength Index is still near the 30 level which suggests an oversold condition and potential moves north, but price is trading below 1.6315 which may act as resistance. Also, the major support located at 1.6250 is close to the current price and may reject it higher if touched, so the next direction is still uncertain and will probably be decided by today�s fundamental events.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Services PMI is released today at 09:30 am GMT with an anticipated increase from the previous 58.8 to 59.1. This survey is based on the opinions of purchasing managers from the services sector, is a leading indicator of economic health and has the potential to strengthen the Pound if better than expected numbers are posted. The US events will have a direct impact on the pair as well.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.02.06 :Forex News: Two Interest Rates � a boost of volatility

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday�s session was very difficult to trade and was characterized by a lot of sharp reversals, especially on the lower time frames. The Euro Zone Retail Sales came out worse than anticipated but so did the ADP Non Farm Employment report and these facts generated quick changes of direction.

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Technical Outlook
The resistance located at 1.3550 was touched yesterday and price is showing rejection on a four hour chart (long upper wick of the candle that touched resistance). From a strictly technical point of view, we anticipate a drop towards 1.3400 but today the ECB Press Conference is held and the market will move strongly depending on Mario Draghi�s attitude, making the technical aspect somewhat secondary.

Fundamental Outlook
Without a doubt the most important event of the day is the ECB Press Conference which takes place at 1:30 pm GMT. Although the ECB will announce the Interest Rate (not expected to change from the current 0.25%) at 12:45 pm GMT, this event will be overshadowed by Mario Draghi�s speech at the conference. He will also answer audience questions and his answers will be analyzed in detail by traders around the world, trying to anticipate the next direction, a fact which will generate sudden moves and possible sharp reversals. We recommend caution if trading during the press conference.

GBP/USD

The British Services PMI came out yesterday with a worse than anticipated value, making the pair drop to touch the support located at 1.6250. However, later in the day, disappointing US data took price higher again.

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Technical Outlook
Similar to our EUR/USD outlook, we consider that price is still aiming for a move lower but the day�s fundamental events may overthrow this scenario. The resistance located at 1.6315 is holding so far but the same is true for the 1.6250. A breakout is imminent but the direction will be decided by fundamental factors.

Fundamental Outlook
At 12:00 pm GMT the Bank of England will announce the Interest Rate which is not expected to change from the current 0.50% but the event usually creates volatility even if no change occurs. At the same time the Asset Purchase Facility value is released; this represents the amount of money the Bank of England can use to purchase open market assets with the purpose of stabilizing the currency. The current value of 375B is not expected to change but a decrease is often considered beneficial for the currency and can drive the pair higher.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.02.07 : Forex News: The day�s headline � the US Non Farm Payrolls

EUR/USD

Forex News: During yesterday�s Press Conference, ECB President Mario Draghi commented that inflationary risks remain limited and that he doesn�t see the need for additional monetary stimulus as the economy is showing some signs of recovery. As a result the Euro strengthened against the US Dollar and 1.3550 resistance was decisively broken.

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Technical Outlook
After yesterday�s strong bullish move, we anticipate a consolidation period during which price will move either sideways or to the down side. Once this period is over, the bulls may take the pair into the resistance located at 1.3650 but a failed attempt to break this level will most likely bring the pair back to 1.3550. Just like yesterday, today�s trading session will be highly affected by the fundamental aspect.

Fundamental Outlook
The most important US report regarding the employment situation is released today: the Non Farm Payrolls (also known as Non Farm Employment Change). The report shows the change in the number of employed people in the US non farm sector and is considered a huge market mover. Almost always the impact is violent and immediate so we recommend caution if trading at the time. The event is scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT and the expected number is 184K while the previous was 74K; better numbers usually strengthen the US Dollar as they indicate a thriving economy.

GBP/USD

The Bank of England did not modify the Interest Rate (0.50%) and some volatility could be seen at the time of the release but no substantial developments took place and resistance is still holding.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/image0033-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
In the second part of yesterday�s trading session the control belonged to the bulls and we saw price move above 1.6315 resistance. However, we don�t consider this move will be able to generate additional up side pressure especially because price stalled after moving above the level. We are neutral on the pair for the moment, in anticipation of the US employment situation report which will probably decide the next medium term direction.

Fundamental Outlook
The UK Manufacturing Production is released t 09:30 am GMT with an expected increase from the previous 0.0% to 0.6%. The indicator measures the change in the total output generated by manufacturers and can strengthen the Pound if better than expected values are posted. Of course the US Non Farm Payrolls will be the day�s headline and will directly affect the pair.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.02.10 :Forex News: The lack of major data releases causes slow price action

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the pair continued to climb on the back of worse than anticipated numbers shown by the US Non Farm Employment report and price came very close to 1.3650 resistance, consolidating the short term control of the bulls.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2014.02.10-The-lack-of-major-data-releases-causes-slow-price-action-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
As seen on a Daily chart, price is approaching a confluence zone created by the resistance located at 1.3650 and the trend line drawn from last year�s high. Usually confluence zones are hard to break so today we might see a bearish move. The Relative Strength Index is also approaching an overbought condition on the four hour chart, making further upside movement more difficult.

Fundamental Outlook
The day lacks major economic releases and the only noteworthy indicator is the French Industrial Production which comes out early at 07:45 am GMT and is expected to decrease from the previous 1.3% to -0.1%. Such a decrease would be detrimental for the Euro but the indicator usually has a mild impact on the pair.

GBP/USD

The control belonged to the bulls during Friday�s trading session and the move up was mostly generated by US Dollar weakness, not by Pound strength.

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Technical Outlook
Friday�s bullish move brought the pair once again above 1.6315 and made 1.6440 the first target for today�s trading session. However, we consider that a touch of this resistance will most likely generate a bounce lower, not a break to the upside, especially considering the fact that usually Mondays are slow days and strong levels are rarely broken.

Fundamental Outlook
Today the United Kingdom didn�t schedule any economic releases and this contributes to our belief that a sow day is ahead.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.02.11 : Forex News: Janet Yellen�s testimony � a reason for volatility

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday�s trading session had low volume and price didn�t travel a considerable distance but the bulls were in control for the most part of the day and the pair touched the resistance located at 1.3650.

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Technical Outlook
Although touched, the confluence zone created by the down trend line and 1.3650 horizontal resistance is still holding but yesterday�s slow movement doesn�t offer enough clues about the next direction. Confluence zones are usually hard to break so moves to the down side are very possible but a break will most likely add more bullish pressure to the market.

Fundamental Outlook
Today at 3:00 pm GMT, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen will deliver a speech before the House Financial Services Committee regarding the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report. During the second part of her testimony, Janet Yellen will answer questions asked by members of the Committee and this is usually the time when the biggest volatility can occur, depending on her attitude and answers.

GBP/USD

The pair traded mostly sideways yesterday and neither bulls nor bears were in clear control. All moves to one side were quickly reversed and we attribute this ranging price action to the lack of economic indicators.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2014.02.11-Janet-Yellens-testimony-a-reason-for-volatility-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
Price is likely to pick up some speed during today�s trading session and we anticipate a move into the resistance zone created around 1.6440 followed by a fall towards 1.6315. Even if price will move to the down side, we don�t expect it to travel the entire distance to 1.6315 in one day, except if unscheduled events occur.

Fundamental Outlook
This is the second day during which the United Kingdom didn�t schedule any important economic or financial indicators so price action will be mostly influenced by technical factors and by Janet Yellen�s testimony.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.02.12 : Forex News: True break of resistance or single impulse?

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar weakened considerably during yesterday�s trading session as Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen commented that recovery of the US employment situation is �far from complete�. This allowed the pair to move above resistance and consolidated the control of the bulls.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2014.02.12-True-break-of-resistance-or-single-impulse-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
The confluence zone created by 1.3650 resistance and the down trend line drawn from last year�s high was broken yesterday and this is a sign that further advances to the upside are probable. However, the Relative Strength Index touched the 70 level which indicates an overbought condition and a possible move to the downside. Today�s price action will show us if the break was a true one and the pair is re-testing the broken level or if it was just an impulse generated by Yellen�s comments.

Fundamental Outlook
Euro Zone�s Industrial Production is announced at 10:00 am GMT and a big decrease is expected from the previous 1.8% to -0.2%. The indicator shows the change in the productivity of the industrial sector and usually better than expected numbers strengthen the Euro, driving price higher.

GBP/USD

The pair was also affected by Yellen�s comments and as a result the US Dollar weakened against the Pound, triggering a break of resistance.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2014.02.12-True-break-of-resistance-or-single-impulse-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
The resistance located at 1.6440 was broken again yesterday and lately price seems to respect it less, moving through it with relative ease. A successful re-test of the broken level followed by a bounce would indicate that the level has turned into support once more and that further moves to the upside will follow. The Relative Strength Index is in close vicinity to the overbought level so it is possible to see moves below 1.6440 during today�s trading session.

Fundamental Outlook
The main event of the day for the Pound will be the release of the Inflation Report and the Press Conference held by Governor Mark Carney regarding the Report. Bank of England�s projection about inflation and a two year economic growth outlook will be contained in the report and Carney�s attitude during the conference will be closely watched by market participants in an attempt to identify the pair�s next direction. Both events take place at 10:30 am GMT and we recommend caution if trading at the time.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.02.13 : Forex News: US Retail Sales, the day�s market-mover

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair dropped sharply during yesterday�s trading session as the Euro Zone Industrial Production posted worse than expected numbers, indicating decreased activity and a slowdown of the economic recovery.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2014.02.13-US-Retail-Sales-the-days-market-mover-pic-1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
The latest move above 1.3650 failed to produce the expected results and price returned below resistance on the back of disappointing economic data. This shifts the balance of power in favor of the bears once more but the pair faces support at 1.3550 and moves to the north are a distinct possibility since no clear trend is in place. Today�s important US events will have a strong impact on price movement, overshadowing the technical side.

Fundamental Outlook
The US Retail Sales are released at 1:30 pm GMT and are expected to slightly decrease from the previous 0.2% to 0.0%. The retail sector represents a major part of the entire consumer spending which in turn represents the biggest part of the US economy so better than expected values usually strengthen the greenback. Later in the day, at 3:30 pm GMT Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen will testify before the Senate Banking Committee regarding the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report and the speech has the potential to be a major market mover so we recommend caution if trading at the time.

GBP/USD

The Pound strengthened substantially against the US Dollar after the Inflation Report showed the Bank of England has a positive outlook regarding economic growth and hinted about future interest rate increases.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2014.02.13-US-Retail-Sales-the-days-market-mover-pic-2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
After breaking 1.6440, price stalled there for a while before moving furiously to the upside. Now the important resistance located at 1.6600 is very close but the Relative Strength Index is showing a clear overbought condition on a four hour chart. After such a strong move, a retracement is in order, even if the medium term control clearly belongs to the bears. The pair�s movement will be highly affected by the fundamental aspect and the technical part will be somewhat secondary.

Fundamental Outlook
Although the United Kingdom didn�t schedule the release of any economic or financial indicators, the US Retail Sales and Janet Yellen�s testimony will most likely generate volatility and sharp moves.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.02.14 : Forex Technical Analysis: The bulls may give back some of their gains

EUR/USD

Forex Technical Analysis: The US Dollar weakened substantially against the Euro as the US Retail Sales showed a decrease of consumer spending, allowing the pair to climb for almost the entire duration of yesterday�s trading session.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2014.02.14-The-bulls-may-give-back-some-of-their-gains-pic-1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
The pair moved back above 1.3650, continuing the bullish impulse seen in the beginning of the week; however price is showing signs of rejection judging by the long upper wicks of the candles and strong resistance is ahead (1.3710). We are neutral on the pair but consider that a successful re-test of the recently broken level will bring the pair into 1.3710 resistance.

Fundamental Outlook
Early at 07:00 am GMT the German Gross Domestic Product is released, with an anticipated increase from the previous 0.6% to 1.3%. Such an increase will most likely strengthen the Euro as the GDP is an economy�s main performance gauge. Later in the day at 2:55 pm GMT the University of Michigan will release the US Consumer Sentiment which is a leading indicator of consumer spending and usually has a strong impact on the pair. The expected figure is 80.6, an almost insignificant increase from the previous 80.4.

GBP/USD

The Pound continued to gain against the greenback and the important resistance located at 1.6600 was broken relatively easy.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2014.02.14-The-bulls-may-give-back-some-of-their-gains-pic-2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
Yesterday�s climb stopped in the resistance zone created around 1.6665 and a retracement lower is still anticipated, considering the severe overbought condition indicated by the Relative Strength Index. Without a doubt the bulls are in control but a retracement is needed before the pair can move into the resistance located at 1.6750. If a move into the mentioned resistance occurs, we don�t expect it to be completed today.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn�t schedule any news releases for today so price action will be influenced by the US events and by the technical aspect of the market.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.02.17 :The Forex Market: Markets react to the Euro Group Meetings

EUR/USD

The Forex Market: Friday the US posted mixed data but overall the Dollar is weakening and this combined with better than anticipated German Gross Domestic Product generated another bullish move which took price into resistance.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2014.02.17-Markets-react-to-the-Euro-Group-Meetings-pic-1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
The pair finished last week right on the important resistance located at 1.3710 and the Relative Strength Index just touched the 70 level, showing signs of an overbought market. These factors make us believe that today price may stall or retrace lower but the market can remain overbought for an extended period of time so further bullish advances are not out of the question.

Fundamental Outlook
The Euro Group meetings take place today and are attended by personalities from the political and financial scene. The meetings are usually closed to the press but officials often speak with journalists during the day and this can generate volatility and sharp moves, depending on the matters discussed. The US Banks will be closed in celebration of Presidents� Day so the New York session may be characterized by irregular movement.

GBP/USD

The Pound showed tremendous strength against its counterpart and Friday the pair climbed for the fourth consecutive day on the back of speculation about a potential interest rate hike.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2014.02.17-Markets-react-to-the-Euro-Group-Meetings-pic-2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
Price rocketed Friday and the important resistance located at 1.6750 was touched, setting the scene for a bounce-or-break scenario. Without a doubt the bulls are in control of the market but the Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart is showing a severe overbought condition. This fact, combined with the strength of the current level may finally generate a retracement lower which will most likely be followed by a move higher.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn�t schedule any major data releases for today so price action will be driven mostly by the technical aspect of the market.
Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.02.18 :Forex News: Resuming bullish price action?

EUR/USD
Forex News:Yesterday the pair ranged for almost the entire day and the Euro Group meetings didn�t do much to change this behavior. Resistance is still holding and price is trading very close to it.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2014.02.18-Resuming-bullish-price-action-pic-1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
Recent price action doesn�t offer a lot of hints about future direction but the resistance located at 1.3710 is still holding. However, this resistance level didn�t reject strong movement and it didn�t generate a bounce lower so we consider that it is pretty fragile and can be broken by a bullish impulse. Important data is released today so a direction will probably be established.

Fundamental Outlook
At 10:00 am GMT the German ZEW Economic Sentiment is released, with an anticipated decrease from the previous 61.7 to 61.3. The importance of this survey comes from the fact that it is derived from the opinions of about 275 German institutional investors and professional analysts who are asked to rate the 6 month outlook for the German economy. Due to the nature of their jobs, they are highly informed about the economic situation and can give an accurate assessment. Usually, better than expected numbers strengthen the Euro.

GBP/USD

Pound�s strength took the pair above the resistance located at 1.6750 but yesterday the much anticipated retracement lower finally occurred and the bears made their presence known.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2014.02.18-Resuming-bullish-price-action-pic-2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
The uptrend is still very strong and yesterday�s move lower is considered just a retracement which cleared the overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index, not a reversal. We expect trend resumption today but if price will stop in the resistance zone (1.6750), then maybe the strength of the bulls is exhausted and the bears will take over. The first potential support is located at 1.6665 and may push price higher if touched.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom Consumer Price Index is released today at 09:30 am GMT. This is the main gauge of inflation and it is also taken into consideration by the Bank of England when the interest rate decision is made. Values of the CPI which exceed a certain range may determine the BoE to adjust rates and although the current value of 2.0% is not expected to change today, volatility is likely to be present at the time of the release; usually higher than anticipated values strengthen the Pound.



Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.02.19 :The Forex Market: Fed and BoE Meeting Minutes � the day�s headlines

EUR/USD

The Forex Market: Despite a worse than expected value of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, the pair climbed for almost the entire duration of yesterday�s trading session and resistance was broken decisively.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2014.02.19-Fed-and-BoE-Meeting-Minutes-the-days-headlines-pic-1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
The decisive break of 1.3710 resistance confirms the strength of the bulls and the fact that the pair is in trading in an uptrend. This makes 1.3830 the next major resistance and target but we must note the fact that the Relative Strength Index surpassed the 70 level, thus indicating an overbought condition of the market. Of course, this condition doesn�t mean that a retracement will occur right away but further advances may be more difficult. The broken resistance located at 1.3710 is likely to turn into support if price will reach it again.

Fundamental Outlook
The US Producer Price Index is released today at 1:30 pm GMT; the indicator shows the change in the price charged by producers for their goods and services and usually higher values strengthen the US Dollar due to inflationary implications (eventually a higher price charged by producers will be passed on to the consumer). For today�s release, analysts expect a decrease from the previous 0.4% to 0.2%.

Later in the day, at 7:00 pm GMT, the FOMC will release the Minutes of their latest meeting, containing details about the reasons which influenced the Rate decision. Volatility will most likely be present at the time of the release.

GBP/USD

United Kingdom�s Consumer Price Index posted a surprising decrease to 1.9% from the anticipated 2.0%, a fact which weakened the Pound against its counterpart and allowed the pair to move lower.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2014.02.19-Fed-and-BoE-Meeting-Minutes-the-days-headlines-pic-2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
The pair touched support at 1.6665 and now looks prepared for another bullish push towards 1.6750. The Relative Strength Index has cleared its overbought condition and allows moves higher but a fall below 1.6600 would shift the balance of power in favor of the bears. Today�s price action will be highly influenced by the fundamental aspect.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom releases the Claimant Count Change at 09:30 am GMT with an expected increase from the previous -24.0K to -18.3K, a fact which would be detrimental for the Pound since the indicator shows the change in the number of unemployed people claiming social benefits. At the same time the Bank of England will release the Minutes of their latest meeting, which will contain a breakdown of the members� votes regarding the interest rate and the Asset Purchase Facility value. The US events mentioned earlier will have a direct impact on the pair as well.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.02.21: FOREX NEWS: ENDING THE WEEK WITH A BOUNCE-OR-BREAK SCENARIO

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US data released yesterday strengthened the US Dollar while German and French PMIs both showed a worse than anticipated value which proved detrimental for the Euro. Overall we had a bearish day and the pair moved slowly beneath support.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2014.02.21-Ending-the-week-with-a-bounce-or-break-scenario-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
The fact that price moved below 1.3710 indicates that the power of the bulls is fading and makes 1.3650 the next target. However, the pair is still in a medium term uptrend so bullish moves are a distinct possibility, especially because the break of 1.3710 is not clear or very strong. If this is the case, the first potential resistance is located at 1.3770.

Fundamental Outlook
At 3:00 pm GMT the US Existing Home Sales are released with an anticipated decrease from the previous 4.87M to 4.73M. Under normal conditions better than expected numbers strengthen the US Dollar and take the pair lower. The Euro Zone didn�t schedule any news releases for today.

GBP/USD

The pair continued to move lower throughout yesterday�s trading session, fueled by good US data but price action was choppy, with a lot of reversals on the lower time frames.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2014.02.21-Ending-the-week-with-a-bounce-or-break-scenario-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
As we mentioned before, we consider that the bears will show real signs of strength if price drops below 1.6600. So at the moment the bias is still bullish, although price didn�t bounce higher off the support located at 1.6665. The upper target of the day is 1.6750 while the first important support is located at 1.6600. However, the pair�s movement will be highly affected by the UK data released today.

Fundamental Outlook
An important UK event is scheduled today: the release of the Retail Sales numbers. A big decrease is anticipated from the previous 2.6% to -0.9%, a fact which would weaken the Pound and allow the pair to move lower. The release is scheduled at 09:30 am GMT and will probably have a strong impact on the market. The US Existing Home Sales will also affect the pair�s movement.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.02.24 :Forex News: European data likely to generate the day�s bias

EUR/USD

Forex News: The worse than anticipated value of the US Existing Home Sales contributed to the US Dollar weakness seen Friday but similar to the pair�s behavior throughout the rest of the week, the move up lacked strength and price didn�t continue in the same direction afterwards.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2014.02.24-European-data-likely-to-generate-the-days-bias-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
The pair is trading between the support located at 1.3710 and the minor resistance formed around 1.3770 and today we anticipate a break of either one of these two levels. However, recent price action doesn�t offer a lot of hints about future movement so an accurate assessment is difficult to give but the medium term control belongs to the bulls.

Fundamental Outlook
The German Business Climate survey is released at 09:00 am GMT with an anticipated value of 110.7, a small increase from the previous 110.6. The importance of the survey comes from its large sample size of about 7,000 businesses and higher than anticipated numbers are beneficial for the single currency.

An hour later the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index is announced but no change is anticipated from the current 0.7%. The CPI is used by the Central Bank as a gauge of inflation and a value outside a certain range would determine a rate adjustment; usually higher values strengthen the Euro, taking the pair north.

GBP/USD

Friday the pair had one of the hardest to trade days in a long while. Price moved up and down many times and almost the entire trading session was characterized by sharp reversals on the lower time frames.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2014.02.24-European-data-likely-to-generate-the-days-bias-pic-2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
The Pound is weakened by disappointing economic data and we expect moves lower. However, the first barrier in front of falling prices is 1.6600, a level which is not confirmed support because it didn�t reject prices higher on previous occasions. Today�s price action will show if this level is indeed support but nonetheless, a move below it would indicate that bears are starting to gain strength and would make 1.6440 the next target.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn�t schedule any news releases for the day so price direction will be mostly driven by the technical aspect of the market.
Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.02.26 :Forex News: A clear move is still anticipated

EUR/USD

Forex News: Surprisingly the pair remained inside the range for another day and price action was characterized by sharp reversals and whipsaws on the lower time frames. US data came our worse than expected, a fact which only created more difficult trading conditions.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2014.02.26-A-clear-move-is-still-anticipated-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
Until a clear, decisive breakout occurs, we have a neutral bias on this pair. Lower time frames such as 15 and 5 minutes are extremely hard to trade and all moves are almost immediately reversed. Resistance still sits at 1.3770, a level which gains more and more strength, while support is located at 1.3710.

Fundamental Outlook
The day lacks major indicators but the most important one is the release of the US New Home Sales. The indicator offers insights into the US housing market and has the potential to strengthen the US Dollar if better numbers are posted. For today�s release (scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT), analysts expect a decrease from the previous 414K to 406K.

GBP/USD

The Pound strengthened throughout the day against the greenback but the release of the US Consumer Confidence created a �V� shaped pattern which probably took out a lot of Stop Loss orders and created a choppy trading environment.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2014.02.26-A-clear-move-is-still-anticipated-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
Although the pair moved above the resistance located at 1.6665, the four hour candles show indecision and even rejection (long upper wicks), a fact which makes us believe this is not a valid breakout. We are neutral on this pair as well but the main levels to watch are 1.6750 as resistance and 1.6600 as support. The fundamental aspect will play a major role in today�s developments, overshadowing the technical factors.

Fundamental Outlook
The release of United Kingdom�s Gross Domestic Product is the headline of the day. Scheduled at 09:30 am GMT, the GDP is expected to remain unchanged at 2.8% but a surprise would create a lot of turmoil in the market. The GDP is the main gauge of an economy�s performance and has the capability to influence the pair�s movement drastically. Higher numbers are beneficial for the Pound and will most likely strengthen it, driving the pair higher; the opposite applies for a lower value of the GDP and of course, the US data will be an important factor for today�s price action.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.02.27 :Forex News: US fundamental events steal the headlines once again

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Dollar strengthened against the Euro throughout yesterday�s trading session as the US New Home Sales posted a much better than anticipated value, increasing optimism that Fed will continue to taper the monetary stimulus.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2014.02.27-US-fundamental-events-steal-the-headlines-once-again-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
The decisive break of 1.3710 to the down side signifies a major victory for the bears and maybe more important than that, it suggests that the ranging period is over. A re-test from below is possible, especially considering the fact that the Relative Strength Index is approaching an oversold condition but for now the control belongs to the bears and we are likely to see moves lower.

Fundamental Outlook
At 1:00 pm GMT the German Consumer Price Index is released but no change is anticipated from the current 1.3%. This is the main gauge of inflation and a higher value usually strengthens the Euro because the German economy is the backbone of the Euro Zone. The US Durable Goods Orders are released at 1:30 pm GMT and a big change is expected from the previous -4.2% to -1.6%. More orders for durable goods suggest that manufacturers will increase their activity to satisfy demand and normally this strengthens the US Dollar.

Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT Fed Chairwoman Yellen will testify before the Senate Banking Committee. The focus will be on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report and after reading a prepared statement, Janet Yellen will answer questions asked by the Committee members. This second part is likely to generate the most volatility and we recommend caution if trading at the time.

GBP/USD

The Gross Domestic Product of the United Kingdom surprisingly dropped yesterday to 2.7% from the previous 2.8%, weakening the Pound and allowing moves lower.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2014.02.27-US-fundamental-events-steal-the-headlines-once-again-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
Although UK data was disappointing and US data better than anticipated, the pair didn�t travel a huge distance to the south so we cannot consider the bears to be in control. However, 1.6665 support was broken yesterday and if a re-test generates a move lower which will break 1.6600 support, the bias changes to bearish. Of course, 1.6600 may be broken even without a re-test of 1.6665 and moves to the north are not out of the question either.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn�t schedule any news releases for today so the main focus will be on the US events and on the technical aspect.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.02.28 :Forex News: Dollar strength affected by the US Gross Domestic Product

EUR/USD

Forex News: The first part of yesterday�s trading session was characterized by Euro weakness mainly due to the lower than anticipated German CPI but once disappointing US data came out, the pair climbed to touch the previously broken level of 1.3710.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2014.02.28-Dollar-strength-affected-by-the-US-Gross-Domestic-Product-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
At the moment the pair is testing from below the broken level of 1.3710 and if this test results in a bounce lower, it means that we are dealing with previous support turned resistance. This fact would indicate that bears are indeed in control of the pair�s short to medium term movement and we are likely to see a break of yesterday�s lowest point (1.3643). Otherwise, the next resistance is located at 1.3770 and might be the pair�s next target.

Fundamental Outlook
At 10:00 am GMT the Euro Zone Consumer price Index Estimate is released, with no change anticipated from the current 0.7%. Higher than anticipated values are considered beneficial for the European economy and have the potential to take the pair higher. However, the most important event of the day is the release of the US Preliminary Gross Domestic Product scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT. The anticipated value is 2.6%, a decrease from the previous 3.2%; lower numbers suggest an economic contraction and are perceived as detrimental for the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The pair had a choppy trading session which started with the bears being in control but finished higher, above 1.6665. Overall it was a difficult day for trading on the lower time frames.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2014.02.28-Dollar-strength-affected-by-the-US-Gross-Domestic-Product-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
The pair remains in a range, moving above and below 1.6665 and we maintain our neutral bias until a clear move occurs. For the moment the main levels to watch are 1.6750 as resistance and 1.6600 as support. Until the pair breaks decisively either one of them, the ranging movement will continue.

Fundamental Outlook
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will speak today at the Symposium on Financial Stability and the Role of Central Bankers, in Frankfurt. The event is scheduled at 3:30 pm GMT and is likely to create volatility, depending on the Governor�s attitude and matters discussed. Of course, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair�s movement.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.03.03:Forex News: Mario Draghi testifies � waiting for the market�s reaction

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the bulls scored the biggest victory of last week by taking the pair close to the major resistance located at 1.3830 on the back of a better than anticipated European CPI and a disappointing US Gross Domestic Product.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/2014.03.03-Mario-Draghi-testifies-waiting-for-the-markets-reaction-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
As mentioned before, a crucial resistance sits in front of rising prices and we have already seen signs of rejection on a four hour chart. The Relative Strength Index is indicating an overbought market and it�s likely for the pair to pull back to 1.3770 before further advances to the upside can be made. The technical side of the market will be somewhat secondary and all eyes will be on Mario Draghi�s testimony.

Fundamental Outlook
The most important event of the day is the testimony of ECB President Mario Draghi which is scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT. The president will speak before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament and we expect a lot of strong moves to occur at the time, depending on his attitude. Whipsaws and sharp reversals are a distinct possibility so we recommend caution if trading during the testimony. The US Manufacturing PMI is released at 3:00 pm GMT with an expected increase from the previous 51.3 to 52.3, a fact which would strengthen the greenback if it were to come true or if even higher numbers will be posted.

GBP/USD

The worse than expected US Gross Domestic Product allowed the pair to climb higher during Friday�s trading session. Price action was rather choppy on the lower time frames but the day was bullish nonetheless.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/2014.03.03-Mario-Draghi-testifies-waiting-for-the-markets-reaction-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
As we mentioned last week, we are neutral on the pair until a clear break of either support (1.6600) or resistance (1.6750) occurs. The bulls had a good run Friday but resistance is still holding and a bounce lower is very possible. If this occurs, the first level of importance to the down side is 1.6665; on the other hand, a break of resistance would have to be confirmed by a re-test unless the move up is a very strong one.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Manufacturing PMI is released today at 09:30 am GMT and a small increase is anticipated from the previous 56.7 to 56.9. Since this is a leading indicator of economic health focused on the manufacturing sector, better than anticipated numbers usually strengthen the Pound. The US Manufacturing PMI released later in the day will have a direct impact on the pair as well.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.03.04 : Forex News: Support levels are targeted

EUR/USD

Forex News: Surprisingly, the market didn�t react almost at all during Mario Draghi�s testimony which took place yesterday in Brussels. Although the president�s comments were rather positive regarding the lending situation in Europe, the single currency didn�t strengthen as estimated.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/2014.03.04-Support-levels-are-targeted-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
Friday�s top couldn�t be surpassed yesterday and it appears as the overbought condition signaled by the Relative Strength Index combined with the strength of 1.3830 resistance are setting the stage for a reversal. Even if signs of lower prices are present in the market, the pair is still under the control of the bulls from a medium term perspective so another push towards 1.3830 is very possible. However, we consider 1.3710 to be the first lower target. Note that the week opened with a gap lower and more often than not these gaps are filled so we might see price move to the upper part of the gap today or in the days to come, especially if 1.3710 is touched and manages to push the pair higher.

Fundamental Outlook
The release of the Spanish Unemployment Change is the only noteworthy event of the day. The estimated value is 74.2K, a decrease from the previous 113.1K; usually lower than anticipated numbers are beneficial for the Euro as less unemployed people are a sign of a thriving economy. However, the event is considered to have a medium impact on the pair�s movement.

GBP/USD

The British Manufacturing PMI met analysts� forecast and posted a value of 56.9, a fact which didn�t create surprising moves but allowed the pair to have a bearish day following a bounce off 1.6750 resistance.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/2014.03.04-Support-levels-are-targeted-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
The pair is trading close to the level of 1.6665 and it looks like the bulls don�t have the power needed to push price above 1.6750. Even if we still maintain a neutral stance until either 1.6750 or 1.6600 is broken, we believe that a touch of the mentioned support is very likely if 1.6665 is broken to the downside. A break-or-bounce scenario will unfold if the pair touches 1.6600 support and the result will most likely influence the medium term outlook.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Construction PMI is released today at 09:30 am GMT with an expected decrease from the previous 64.6 to 63.6. This is a survey based on the opinions of about 170 purchasing managers from the Construction sector and acts as a leading indicator of economic health so better than anticipated numbers usually strengthen the Pound.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.03.05 :Forex News: Support still holding but uncertainty rules the market

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday we had a rather mixed trading session, with price reversing direction several times, a fact which generated a difficult trade environment. Tensions in Ukraine added to the lack of clear direction.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/2014.03.05-Support-still-holding-but-uncertainty-rules-the-market-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
Although the pair made a run for the support located at 1.3710, this level couldn�t be touched and the bulls took price higher for a re-test of the recently broken level of 1.3770. This re-test and the bounce lower that followed confirm the fact that now 1.3770 is resistance once again and moves to the south are a distinct possibility. However, the first support is located pretty close to current price and may reject price if touched, especially if the Relative Strength Index will indicate an oversold condition at the time.

Fundamental Outlook
Early at 08:15 am GMT the Spanish Services PMI is released, with an anticipated increase from the previous 54.9 to 55.3. Half an hour later the Italian Services PMI is released and anticipated to increase from 49.4 to 50.6. Since both are leading indicators of health for the services sector in their respective countries, better than expected values usually strengthen the Euro but they are not considered high impact indicators.

Later in the day, at 1:15 pm GMT the US Non Farm Employment Change will be announced by Automatic Data Processing Inc.; although this release doesn�t have such a huge impact as the government indicator with the same name which comes out two days later, it has the potential to influence the market, especially if a surprising number is posted. The estimate is 159K, a decrease from the previous 175K and usually higher numbers are beneficial for the greenback.

GBP/USD

The British Construction PMI came out worse than estimated, a fact which reversed a previous rally seen early yesterday on the lower time frames and triggered a slow decline for the rest of the day. However, the pair couldn�t move decisively away from 1.6665.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/2014.03.05-Support-still-holding-but-uncertainty-rules-the-market-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
No clear developments took place yesterday and currently the pair is trading close to 1.6665, a level which seems to attract price more and more recently. There are no clear signs of control exhibited by either bulls or bears and price action remains mixed until a break of 1.6750 resistance or 1.6600 support occurs.

Fundamental Outlook
United Kingdom�s Services Purchasing Managers� Index is released today at 09:30 am GMT with a small decrease anticipated from the previous 58.3 to 58.0. Since this is a survey based on the opinions of purchasing managers from the Services sector and also a leading indicator of economic health, better than anticipated numbers have the potential to strengthen the Pound. Of course the US employment data will have a direct impact on the pair�s movement.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.03.06 :Forex News: Interest Rates are here again � a wild day ahead

EUR/USD

Forex News: European data released yesterday was slightly better than anticipated while the US ADP Non Farm Payrolls showed a decrease of employment levels during the previous month. Despite the data released, the greenback didn�t manage to take the pair below 1.3710.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/2014.03.06-Interest-Rates-are-here-again-a-wild-day-ahead-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
Two four-hour candles touched the support located at 1.3710 and both were rejected, closing with long wicks in their lower side. This is a sign of a potential bounce higher, with the first target being 1.3770, followed by 1.3830. Price action may be irregular until the ECB Press Conference is over and throughout the day, the technical factors will be secondary to the fundamental aspect.

Fundamental Outlook
Today is a critical day for the Euro as the ECB will announce their Interest Rate decision at 12:45 am GMT (no change anticipated from the current 0.25%). The rate announcement will be followed 45 minutes later by a Press Conference during which ECB President Mario Draghi will read a prepared statement and will answer audience questions. This Q&A session is usually a reason for huge volatility and sharp reversals as traders try to interpret Draghi�s comments and answers. We recommend caution if trading at the time.

GBP/USD

The British Services PMI posted a slightly better than estimated value, increasing demand for the currency while bad US employment data weakened the Dollar, allowing the pair to have a bullish trading session.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/2014.03.06-Interest-Rates-are-here-again-a-wild-day-ahead-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
Yesterday�s rise confirmed 1.6650 as support after a successful bounce higher off this level and once again we are close to the resistance located at 1.6750. The Relative Strength Index is not showing an overbought condition of the market and yesterday�s candles are full, without wicks to either side, indicating bull strength. However, a break of resistance cannot be anticipated because of important fundamental events which will most likely influence the day�s price direction.

Fundamental Outlook
Bank of England announces today at 12:00 pm GMT the Interest Rate and the Asset Purchase Facility value. No change is anticipated for either of them but nonetheless, volatility is likely to be present at the time of the release. The current Interest Rate is 0.50% and the Asset Purchase Facility is 375B and a surprise modification (or even hints of a future change) would generate huge moves.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.03.07 :Forex News: All eyes on the US Non Farm Payrolls

EUR/USD

Forex News: The European Central Bank kept the interest rate unchanged at 0.25% but the single currency strengthened substantially on the back of comments made by Mario Draghi who suggested that no additional monetary stimulus is necessary, considering the current state of the economy.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/2014.03.07-All-eyes-on-the-US-Non-Farm-Payrolls-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
The recent rally will probably continue after a brief retracement lower which is likely to find support around the freshly broken level of 1.3830. The four hour Relative Strength Index is signaling an overbought condition of the market, a fact which more often than not results in a bearish move. Although the outlook is bullish, almost anything is possible, especially if today�s US employment report shows a surprising value.

Fundamental Outlook
Without a doubt the US Non Farm Employment Change report is the day�s headline as it has a tremendous impact on the market each time it is released. The jobs situation is a concerning factor for the American economy and today�s report is considered the main gauge of this situation. Higher values suggest that more people are employed and also that consumer spending may increase in the future, a beneficial fact for the greenback. The event is scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT and the estimated figure is 151K, an increase from the previous 113K.

GBP/USD

Bank of England decided to make no adjustments to the Interest Rate or the Asset Purchase Facility but the pair moved to the north after some choppy price action experienced at the time of the interest rate release.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/2014.03.07-All-eyes-on-the-US-Non-Farm-Payrolls-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
The resistance located at 1.6750 is finally broken after a long period of indecision. However, the break is not extremely strong so we are waiting for a re-test of the level and a bounce higher in order to consider this break a real one. The US Dollar will be highly influenced today by the US Non Farm Payrolls and the technical aspect of the market will be somewhat secondary.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn�t schedule any major data releases for the day and market participants will be mainly focused on the US events. We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.03.10 :Forex News: Bears fight back � US Dollar rebounds

EUR/USD

Forex News: The final day of the week that just ended was heavily influenced by the US Non Farm Employment report which exceeded expectations and strengthened the greenback as a result. Overall, the day was characterized by a sharp reversal which made trend following strategies almost impossible to trade successfully.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/2014.03.10-Bears-fight-back-US-Dollar-rebounds-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
Friday�s move lower is considered a retracement in an uptrend, with the main bias being bullish. An important resistance was broken last week, a fact which solidifies the control of the bulls but signs of weakness are present in the market: the Relative Strength Index is already moving down from overbought territory and the latest daily candle is a pin (which indicates rejection). Moves below 1.3830 may be indicative of increased bearish pressure and a break of Friday�s high located at 1.3914 would indicate trend continuation.

Fundamental Outlook
The Euro Group meetings take place today in Brussels and are a potential market mover, considering the fact that important officials will be present (ECB President, Euro Group President and finance ministers from the member states). Although the meetings are closed to the press, participants often talk to journalists, possibly creating volatility, depending on the matters discussed.

GBP/USD

Friday the pair continued its choppy price action, moving above and below the level of 1.6750 before dropping on the back of good US employment data which reinforced the US Dollar.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/2014.03.10-Bears-fight-back-US-Dollar-rebounds-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
The recent move south is backed by fundamental events and the strength of the Pound seems to fade away as we saw the bulls make several failed attempts to break resistance. Our bias remains neutral in anticipation of a clear breakout but there are increased chances of an encounter with the first minor support level located at 1.6650.

Fundamental Outlook
Other than the Euro Group meetings, there are no notable events scheduled today and we anticipate slow trading if no major developments take place in Brussels.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.03.11 :Forex News: Mark Carney�s testimony steals the headlines

EUR/USD

Forex News: The week started with ranging price action and the pair lacked clear direction. No major economic indicators were released, contributing to the ranging price action and slow movement.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/2014.03.11-Mark-Carneys-testimony-steals-the-headlines-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
As mentioned, yesterday price was confined in a narrow range but this fact makes us believe that today we will see stronger moves. The pair is in an uptrend but the fact that buyers failed to take price higher may suggest that lower moves will follow; if this is the case, 1.3830 is the next potential support and target of the day. Keep in mind that bulls are still in control of the pair and only a break of support would mean that bears are really starting to shift the power in their favor.

Fundamental Outlook
Both the Euro and the US Dollar have a slow day ahead in terms of economic indicator releases and we consider the technical aspect to be the main market mover.

GBP/USD

The sellers managed to seize control of the pair yesterday and took price below the support located at 1.6650. Overall we had a day without sharp reversals and a steady trend was in place on the lower time frames.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/2014.03.11-Mark-Carneys-testimony-steals-the-headlines-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
As mentioned before, the pair broke 1.6650 support and is now trading below it. Short term control belongs to the bears but the break is not a clear one and we still consider the picture to be unclear until a break of 1.6600 occurs. Although moves above 1.6650 are possible, we slightly favor the short side but we acknowledge the fact that today�s important fundamental events may overshadow the technical aspect.

Fundamental Outlook
The most important event of the day is Mark Carney�s testimony before the Parliament�s Treasury Committee with the main focus being the economic outlook and the inflation situation. During the few hours of the hearings, strong and even irregular movement may be experienced, depending on the matters discussed. The hearings start at 09:30 am GMT and at the same time the UK Manufacturing Production is announced, with an anticipated increase from 1.5% to 3.3%. Better than anticipated values for this indicator are usually beneficial for the Pound and have the potential to take the pair higher.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.03.12 :Forex News: Markets governed by indecision. Strong moves still expected

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair had a rather slow day, characterized by a sharp reversal after a touch of 1.3830 support zone. The fundamental scene was quiet, a fact which contributed to the pair�s lack of strong movement and narrow range.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/2014.03.12-Markets-governed-by-indecision.-Strong-moves-still-expected-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
An important level was barely touched yesterday but price showed an almost immediate reaction, bouncing higher for about 40 pips. This is without a doubt a bullish sign but lately the pair seems to lack momentum and the buyers� strength is slowly fading away. On the other hand, even if our anticipated target of 1.3830 was almost reached, we didn�t see clear bearish pressure. All this goes to show that the market is governed by indecision and the next strong move will probably determine the short term bias. Support still sits at 1.3830 while the highest price reached this year (1.3914) will probably act as resistance.

Fundamental Outlook
At 10:00 am GMT the Euro Zone Industrial Production is announced, with an anticipated increase from the previous 0.5% to 1.9%. Such a change would be beneficial for the Euro and we might see higher prices as this is a leading indicator of economic health. The US has a slow day ahead and no major indicators are released.

GBP/USD

Although we expected Mark Carney�s testimony to have a higher impact on the market, the pair moved between support and resistance for the entire day and no major developments took place.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/2014.03.12-Markets-governed-by-indecision.-Strong-moves-still-expected-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
For a long time the pair has been trading between the support located at 1.6600 and the resistance located at 1.6750; a clear break of either level would most likely determine the pair�s next medium term direction so we can say that we are a crossroad now: if 1.6600 will be broken today, we are likely to see and extended move lower but a bounce higher off this level would indicate that the ranging period is not over yet.

Fundamental Outlook
The day ahead lacks major economic releases and this makes the technical aspect the most influential factor of the day.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.03.13 :Forex News: US Retail Sales � the incentive for a break of Support or Resistance

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair had a bullish trading session yesterday, with price moving in one direction for almost the entire day. The better than expected value of the Euro Zone Industrial Production greatly contributed to this upward movement by strengthening the Euro.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/2014.03.13-US-Retail-Sales-the-incentive-for-a-break-of-Support-or-Resistance-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
The pair made an attempt to break this year�s high located at 1.3914 and price is now in close vicinity of this level but there are no clear hints of a breakout or of a bounce lower. The Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart is very close to the 70 level, a fact which indicates an overbought condition of the market and price is printing a double top pattern which usually indicates that lower moves are anticipated. The main levels to watch are 1.3914 as resistance and 1.3830 as support.

Fundamental Outlook
The main event of the day is the release of the US Retail Sales scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. Retail sales represent a hefty part of the entire US consumer spending and are considered a market mover which can drastically affect the pair�s behavior. For today�s release an increase is anticipated from the previous value of -0.4% to 0.2% and usually better than expected numbers are beneficial for the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

For a long time we expected a break of either support or resistance and yesterday the pair moved briefly below 1.6600. However the break could not be sustained by the bears and price moved quickly to the upside.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/2014.03.13-US-Retail-Sales-the-incentive-for-a-break-of-Support-or-Resistance-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
The fact that yesterday price tried to break the important support located at 1.6600 but failed and quickly returned above it indicates that bears are not ready yet to take control of the pair. To the upside, the first level of interest remains 1.6650 while 1.6600 is still support which could generate a bounce higher if it�s not broken today. We remain neutral until a clear break occurs.

Fundamental Outlook
The Pound has a calm day ahead in terms of economic indicator releases so we consider the US event to be the main market mover of the day.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.03.14 : Forex New: Support levels threatened again

EUR/USD

Forex New: The pair had a wild day yesterday, characterized by Euro Zone optimism which took price higher but was soon followed by a sharp reversal triggered partly by a better than expected value of the US Retail Sales.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/2014.03.14-Support-levels-threatened-again-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
Yesterday price printed a new high at 1.3965 but the Dollar strengthened after the US data came out and 1.3914 (previous high) was broken to the down side. The latest fall opens the door for a break of 1.3830 support, a fact which would represent a major victory for the bears. Note that the drop didn�t occur immediately after the release of the US Retail Sales so technical reasons, not only fundamental were responsible for it, a fact which makes us believe that high prices were hard to sustain, the bullish trend was overextended and the market was in need of a strong move to the south which may turn into a full scale reversal.

Fundamental Outlook
At 07:00 am GMT the German Final Consumer Price Index is released and anticipated to remain unchanged at 1.2%. The indicator is Germany�s main inflation gauge but it is usually overshadowed by the Preliminary version which is released about 15 days earlier; however, higher values have the potential to strengthen the Euro and take the pair higher. Later in the day, at 1:55 pm GMT, the US Consumer Confidence is released and expected to increase from the previous 81.2 to 81.9; higher levels of consumer confidence are indicative of future increases in consumer spending which is vital for the economy so US Dollar strength is anticipated if higher values will be posted.

GBP/USD

The first part of yesterday�s trading session was controlled by the bulls on the back of speculation that Bank of England will raise the Interest Rate sooner than estimated but the day finished with a stronger US Dollar and a bearish move which nullified the Pound�s previous gains.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/2014.03.14-Support-levels-threatened-again-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
The recent encounter with the support located at 1.6600 resulted in a bounce higher which broke 1.6650 decisively to the upside; however, the rally was sharply reversed and price moved lower, in close vicinity to 1.6600. All this goes to show that indecision still rules the pair but the bears can make a decisive move today if they manage to break 1.6600 support and finish the week below it. We slightly favor this scenario and anticipate a break of 1.6600 but we acknowledge the fact that bulls still have underlying strength and may take the pair north.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom releases the Trade Balance today at 09:30 am GMT; the indicator shows the difference between imported and exported goods and higher readings are beneficial for the Pound. Today�s expected value is -8.7B while the previous was -7.7B but the indicator is not considered a market mover and the impact is usually mild. The US Confidence indicator will have a direct impact on the pair�s movement as well.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.03.18 :Forex News: A strong move is almost imminent

EUR/USD

Forex News: Monday�s trading session was characterized by an irregular market and although the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index posted a lower than anticipated value, the pair moved higher. Following a weekend referendum, Crimea decided to join Russia, a fact which escalated tensions between the West and the East, creating a difficult trading environment.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/2014.03.18-A-strong-move-is-almost-imminent-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
Technical Indicators such as the Relative Strength Index don�t offer a lot of clues regarding the pair�s next move and lately the pair has been ranging and reversing a lot. Rumors and speculation drive price rather than technical reasons and that�s why extra caution is needed in periods like these. The main levels of importance remain 1.3965 as resistance and 1.3830 as major support but our bias for the pair is neutral.

Fundamental Outlook
The German ZEW Economic Sentiment is released today at 10:00 am GMT with an anticipated decrease from 55.7 to 52.8. Such a decrease would be detrimental for the Euro as the indicator is based on the opinions of about 275 German analysts and investors who are highly informed about the political situation of the country due to the nature of their jobs. At 12:30 pm GMT the US will announce the Consumer Price Index which acts as the main inflation gauge and has the ability to influence strongly the pair�s movement. For today�s release a decrease is expected, from the previous 1.6% to 1.2% but usually higher values are beneficial for the greenback.

GBP/USD

Although the American Industrial Production indicator posted better numbers, the bulls couldn�t make a decisive move and yesterday�s price action was characterized by a bounce off 1.6600 which failed to be continued to the upside and encountered resistance at 1.6650.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/2014.03.18-A-strong-move-is-almost-imminent-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
For yet another day the pair struggled to move outside the small range created between 1.6650 and 1.6600 but failed to do so. Usually after extended periods of relative inactivity, price tends to move strongly so the next clear breakout will most likely be a real one. We still favor slightly the short side so if 1.6600 will be broken, we believe the move will be continued lower.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn�t schedule any major economic indicator releases but BoE Governor Mark Carney will speak today in London at 5:45 pm GMT. Although this is not a high-profile speech, volatility may be experienced at the time. The US events and tensions in Crimea will affect the pair�s movement as well.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.03.19 : Forex News: A day heavily affected by fundamentals

EUR/USD

Forex News: Both Europe and the US revealed worse than anticipated economic data, a fact which made intraday trading very difficult yesterday. Tensions regarding the Crimea crisis were softened to some extent as Vladimir Putin mentioned in a public speech that Russia will not try to incorporate other territories.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/2014.03.19-A-day-heavily-affected-by-fundamentals-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
After a lot of back and forth movement, yesterday price closed almost at the opening level of the day so from a technical point of view, indecision is governing the pair. The level of 1.3914 was broken several times during the day and it appears to have less and less importance; the Relative Strength Index doesn�t hold any major clues about future direction and all this coupled with yesterday�s choppy price action determines us to have a neutral stance on the pair. Probably the main market mover of the day will be the release of the US Interest Rate and the Conference which follows.

Fundamental Outlook
The Fed will announce today at 6:00 pm GMT the Federal Funds Rate; no change is anticipated from the current 0.25% and the event may be overshadowed by the Press Conference which follows a half an hour later. Fed Chairman Yellen will speak about the economic conditions which were analyzed when the rate decision was made and will also answer questions from the audience. Volatility will most likely be present at the time and we recommend caution. At the same time as the rate decision, the Fed will also announce if they will further cut the bond buying program by another 10 billion US Dollars and a Rate Statement will be issued, containing insights into the reasons which determined the vote.

GBP/USD

The much anticipated break of 1.6000 support finally occurred yesterday, although the US data did not meet expectations, a fact that shows that bearish pressure was growing and the market needed a move south.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/2014.03.19-A-day-heavily-affected-by-fundamentals-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
The pair is trading below 1.6600 support at the moment but we consider the next move to be bullish and price to touch the broken level again. If this touch will result in a bounce lower, 1.6600 will become resistance and we will be trading in a medium term bearish market. However, moves above 1.6600 are very possible especially because today�s movement will be highly affected by the fundamental developments.

Fundamental Outlook
At 9:30 am GMT the Bank of England will release the Minutes of their latest meeting, containing information about how each member voted on the Interest Rate and Asset Purchase Facility. The UK Claimant Count (unemployment situation) will be announced at the same time, with an expected change to -23.3K from the previous 27.6K. Less unemployed people are indicative of a thriving economy so lower than estimated numbers are beneficial for the Pound. The US events mentioned earlier will have a direct impact on the pair as well.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.03.20 :Forex News: US Dollar strengthens � bears take control of the market

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Fed decided yesterday to trim the bond-buying program by another 10 billion US Dollars, as anticipated but they also predicted that the Interest Rate will reach a value of 1% until the end of next year. This was perceived strongly bullish for the greenback and the result was a huge drop for our pair.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/2014.03.20-US-Dollar-strengthens-bears-take-control-of-the-market-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
Although price pierced through the support located at 1.3830, we cannot consider it to be broken decisively just yet. The control clearly belongs to the bears and the indecision that governed the market is now over so we expect lower prices but keep in mind that usually a retracement follows such strong moves. For today, our bias is bearish overall but we anticipate retracements higher based on the fact that the Relative Strength Index is showing a severe oversold condition.

Fundamental Outlook
Europe didn�t schedule any major indicator announcements so all eyes will be on the United States again for the release of the Existing Home Sales due at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to increase to 4.65M from 4.62M. At the same time the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index will be released, showing the opinion of manufacturers from the Philadelphia district regarding business conditions and the state of the industrial sector. A big increase is anticipated from the previous -6.3 to 4.2 and we expect the Dollar to strengthen if such an increase is posted.

GBP/USD

Yesterday the pair slowly climbed before the Fed releases, nullifying previous USD gains but during the Fed Meeting and Yellen�s Press Conference, the greenback strengthened and 1.6600 major support was clearly broken.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/2014.03.20-US-Dollar-strengthens-bears-take-control-of-the-market-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
The bears definitely have control of short term momentum and further moves south have a high probability of occurring. Although our favored scenario is a continued move lower, we consider that a retracement higher is in order, especially if the Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart will go below the 30 level. The most important levels to watch are 1.6600 as potential resistance and 1.6250 as medium term support.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn�t schedule any major economic indicator releases for today so price action will be mainly affected by the US data and by technical factors.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

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2014.03.21 :Forex News: Retracements higher in a bearish market

EUR/USD

Forex News: Although yesterday the US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index posted a much better than anticipated value, the release itself didn�t do much for an already strong US Dollar which took the pair lower for almost the entire day, consolidating the bears� control.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/2014.03.21-Retracements-higher-in-a-bearish-market-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
The market is bearish at the moment but price traveled a big distance in quite a short time and a retracement higher is in order before it can continue lower. On an Hourly chart the Relative Strength Index is coming out of oversold territory, another reason for us to believe that a move up will happen very soon. Keep in mind that moves lower have a high probability of occurring once the retracement is completed. The first major support is located at 1.3710 and resistance is situated at 1.3830 but we don�t believe that either of them will be broken today.

Fundamental Outlook
We have a slow day ahead and the only notable indicator is the Euro Zone Consumer Confidence which is expected to increase from -13 to -12. The release is due at 3:00 pm GMT and better than expected numbers are usually beneficial for the Euro because increased confidence suggests a future increase in consumer spending.

GBP/USD

The pair had another bearish day and moved lower to touch the minor support located at 1.6480. The US events didn�t have the anticipated impact but overall we had a day with a single direction, without whipsaws or sharp reversals.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/2014.03.21-Retracements-higher-in-a-bearish-market-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
Similar to our outlook for EUR/USD, we believe that price must first move up and complete a retracement before we can see further moves south. However, our medium term outlook for the pair is bearish and we consider that the minor support located at 1.6480 will be broken today or possibly Monday. Major resistance remains 1.6600 but for today, a touch of this level is a low probability occurrence.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn�t schedule any major news releases for today so price action will be mainly driven by the technical aspect of the market.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.03.24 Forex News: Slow movement ahead of Manufacturing data

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday we had a slow trading session, with price retracing higher as anticipated but the lack of major economic data releases translated into a movement of less than 50 pips for the entire day. Overall, it was a calm end to a very busy week.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/2014.03.24-Slow-movement-ahead-of-Manufacturing-data-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
From a Daily chart perspective, the market is in a clear uptrend, however on the lower time frames, a down trend is starting to form. For today�s trading session we anticipate moves lower and a potential break of the support zone created around 1.3760, a fact which would open the door for a touch of 1.3710 major support. To the up side, the first major resistance sits at 1.3830 but we don�t expect a bullish break of this level unless surprising numbers are posted for today�s economic indicators.

Fundamental Outlook
At 8:30 am GMT Germany will announce their Manufacturing PMI which is a survey derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector. The anticipated figure is 54.7, a slight decrease from the previous 54.8 and under normal circumstances, better than anticipated values are beneficial for the Euro. The US Manufacturing PMI will be released today at 1:45 pm GMT with an anticipated value of 56.6, a decrease from the previous 57.1. Similar to the German PMI, better numbers can strengthen the currency and take the pair lower.

GBP/USD

The pair moved mostly sideways during Friday�s trading session, a fact which was mainly due to the lackluster fundamental scene and lack of economic indicator releases.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/2014.03.24-Slow-movement-ahead-of-Manufacturing-data-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
Price traded for the entire Friday session very close to the support created at 1.6480, in a very small range, a fact which doesn�t offer a lot of hints about today�s potential direction. However, lately the bears have been in control of the pair and the chart doesn�t show strong signs of bullish moves so we anticipate a break of 1.6480 minor support if the US Manufacturing PMI doesn�t post a surprising number.

Fundamental Outlook
The Pound has a slow day in terms of economic indicator releases and the focus will be on the US data and on the technical aspect of the market.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.03.25 :Forex News: Technical factors overshadowed by political turmoil

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday an emergency G7 meeting was held in The Hague to discuss potential sanctions against Russia for the takeover of Crimea and this triggered a strong move up which took the pair above 1.3830.

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Technical Outlook
Before the G7 meeting, the pair moved lower on the back or worse than expected German data but now the picture is unclear once again. The rise was not generated entirely by technical reasons so the break of 1.3830 can be a false one and price is likely to move below this level once again if things calm down on the political scene. The support located at 1.3760 was touched for a second time today without being broken so now its importance has increased and a potential break will weigh more for short term price action; however, if the bulls can maintain price above 1.3830 the bearish momentum will start to fade away.

Fundamental Outlook
Two important indicators are released today: the first is the German Ifo Business Climate which is a leading indicator of economic health based on the opinions of about 7,000 businesses and has the potential to take the pair higher if better values are posted. The release is scheduled at 9:00 am GMT and the expected value is 110.9, a slight decrease from last month�s 111.3. The second indicator is the US Consumer Confidence which comes out at 2:00 pm GMT with an estimated increase to 78.7 from the previous 78.1. If consumers are optimistic about economic conditions, they are likely to spend more and consumer spending is of crucial importance to the US economy so higher numbers are beneficial for the US Dollar and can take the pair lower.

GBP/USD

Price moved mostly sideways before the G7 meeting but a fast rise ended this calm behavior. The US data didn�t have a notable impact on the pair and the highlight of the day was the whipsaw seen during the G7 meeting.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/2014.03.25-Technical-factors-overshadowed-by-political-turmoil-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
The technical aspect of the market is overshadowed at the moment by the political developments but it is important to acknowledge the fact that bulls couldn�t sustain the high price generated by the G7 meeting. This shows us that bears still have underlying strength and that lower prices are a distinct possibility. The first support is located at 1.6480 while resistance sits at 1.6600 but our technical bias is neutral considering the current political situation.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom announces today at 9:30 am GMT the Consumer Price Index which is the prime inflation gauge and is closely watched by the Bank of England when the Interest Rate decision is made. A higher inflation can determine the BoE to raise the interest rate and this is the reason why higher than expected values for today�s release can strengthen the Pound and take the pair higher. The anticipated value is 1.7%, a decrease from the current 1.9%. The pair will be directly affected by the US releases and by political events.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.03.26 :Forex News: US data may bring an end to market indecision

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday�s trading session was choppy and characterized by a lot of back and forth movement. Germany�s Business Climate came out with a value which was very close to the expected one but the US Consumer Confidence posted a better reading, strengthening the US Dollar.

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Technical Outlook
The US Dollar strength generated by the Consumer Confidence release took the pair down into the support located at 1.3760 but price bounced higher from there and the pair experienced another encounter with 1.3830 resistance. This up and down movement doesn�t offer many clues about future direction but is likely to come to an end today and 1.3830 or 1.3760 will probably be broken. The direction of the break however, is harder to predict, considering yesterday�s wild movement. We slightly favor the short side but a lot will depend on the outcome of the US data release.

Fundamental Outlook
Today at 12:30 pm GMT the US Durable Goods Orders are announced and expected to increase substantially from the previous -1.0% to 1.1%. Such an increase would most likely strengthen the US Dollar because more orders for durable goods suggest that producers will intensify their activity to fill those orders. Also, because durable goods are more expensive than normal ones, a rise in demand for such goods indicates consumer confidence regarding the current and future economic conditions.

GBP/USD

United Kingdom�s Consumer Price Index was released yesterday with the anticipated value of 1.7% and the market did not react strongly, mainly because the value didn�t come as a surprise. Overall we had a bullish day but trading on the lower time frames was rather difficult.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/2014.03.26-US-data-may-bring-an-end-to-market-indecision-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
Although the last couple of days have been characterized by market indecision and choppy price action, we anticipate a move below the support located at 1.6480. This bearish bias is mostly based on the fact that medium term control still belongs to the bears and we consider the latest rise just a normal retracement after price moved strongly in one direction. To the north, the first resistance is located at 1.6600 and a move above it would make us reassess our bearish stance.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn�t schedule any major economic indicator releases for today so price action will be mostly driven by the US economic indicator and by the technical aspect.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.03.27 :Forex News: Price confined between support and resistance. A breakout is imminent

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday�s release of the US Durable Goods Orders didn�t do much to affect the pair although the indicator posted much better than anticipated numbers. However, the US Dollar strengthened throughout the day but price action was characterized by some sharp turns on the lower time frames.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/2014.03.27-Price-confined-between-support-and-resistance.-A-breakout-is-imminent-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
After price tried a second time to break the resistance located at 1.3830 but failed, the bears seem to be taking back control of the pair. If this is the case, we will probably see a break of the support located at 1.3760 and a continued move lower, towards 1.3710. For the moment, 1.3830 is still strong resistance but a break would be indicative of a shift of bias and a potential resumption of the long term uptrend.

Fundamental Outlook
At 12:30 pm GMT the US Unemployment Claims are released, with an anticipated increase from last week�s 320K to 326K, a fact which would probably weaken the US Dollar because a higher number of unemployed people, suggests that consumer spending may decrease in the near future. The US Pending Home Sales are announced at 2:00 pm GMT with no change anticipated from the current 0.1%; better than anticipated numbers usually strengthen the greenback as home purchases are usually made during times of economic expansion.

GBP/USD

The pair moved on a bullish path for the entire day and price came close to 1.6600 resistance. The bullish sentiment was triggered by speculation that Bank of England may raise the interest rate if the economy continues to recover.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/2014.03.27-Price-confined-between-support-and-resistance.-A-breakout-is-imminent-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
An encounter with 1.6600 resistance seems almost imminent but if it occurs we expect a bounce lower. Since the beginning of the month the pair has been moving in a bearish manner and the Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart is close to overbought territory so moves lower after a touch of resistance have a higher probability. A break to the up side of 1.6600 would make 1.6650 the next target.

Fundamental Outlook
The most important event of the day for the pair will be the release of the UK Retail Sales which is scheduled at 9:30 am GMT. Analysts� forecast a rise from the previous -1.5% to 0.5%, a fact which would strengthen the Pound because retail sales represent the majority of consumer spending. US unemployment and house-market data will have a direct impact on the pair.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.03.31 :Forex News: A busy Monday � speeches and inflation data ahead

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday�s release of the German Consumer Price Index didn�t have the usual impact on price direction and the pair moved up although the CPI value was worse than anticipated. This is partly attributed to the fact that some market participants were anticipating an even lower value than the actual one.

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Technical Outlook
After an almost perfect bounce off 1.3710, price moved to touch 1.3760 resistance but the bulls couldn�t continue the momentum and the pair finished the week trading between the two levels. On the Hourly chart above, the pair is in a down trend, a fact which favors moves south but keep in mind that on higher time frames an uptrend is established. This makes the picture somewhat unclear and we believe that today�s direction will be mostly influenced by the fundamental aspect.

Fundamental Outlook
The Euro Zone Core Consumer Price Index is released today at 9:00 am GMT and a lower value is expected: 0.8% (previous is 1.0%). The CPI is widely regarded as the prime inflation gauge and the Core version excludes energy and food from calculation, thus giving a more accurate assessment of current conditions. Usually, higher than anticipated values strengthen the Euro and drive the pair higher.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak today in Chicago at the National Interagency Community Reinvestment Conference. The event is scheduled at 1:55 pm GMT and can trigger strong movement although the currency market is not the main subject of her speech.

GBP/USD

The British Gross Domestic Product released Friday posted the anticipated value and as a result the market didn�t react strongly. However, the pair slowly climbed for almost the entire day and the week finished near resistance.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/2014.03.31-A-busy-Monday-speeches-and-inflation-data-ahead-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
Friday�s rally took the pair in close vicinity of 1.6650 resistance for the second time in a short while. The Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart is indicating an overbought condition so further moves up will encounter increased resistance but this overbought state of the market is not a clear indication of bearish moves as oscillators can remain above the overbought level for an extended time. The main levels to watch today are 1.6650 as resistance and 1.6600 as support.

Fundamental Outlook
At 8:30 am GMT the Bank of England will announce the value of the Net Lending to Individuals. Although it is not considered a high-impact indicator, higher values usually strengthen the Pound because they suggest that consumers are confident in economic conditions and are willing to spend more money. The consensus value is 2.3B while previous was 2.1B.

At 5:15 pm GMT Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England will speak at a press conference in London. As always, his public speeches can turn into market movers if the monetary policy topic is touched.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

EUR/USD

Forex News: Intraday trading was made difficult yesterday by the release of the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index which generated a massive whipsaw. The lower-than-expected value posted by the indicator initially took price lower but soon after the pair rallied above resistance.

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Technical Outlook

After the touch of 1.3710 which occurred last week, the bears seemed to have lost their control over the pair and at the moment the bulls dictate direction, despite disappointing data for the Euro. The level of 1.3760 was broken to the upside and now price returned close to it for a re-test; we anticipate a move higher, possibly close to the resistance located at 1.3830 but a lot depends on the fundamental data released today.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 7:15 am GMT the Spanish Manufacturing PMI is released, with an anticipated increase from 52.5 to 52.9; half an hour later the same indicator but for the Italian economy is released and expected to slightly decrease from 52.3 to 52.2. Both these indicators are surveys based on the opinions of purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector and have the potential to strengthen the Euro if better numbers are posted. Later in the day, at 2:00 pm GMT the US Manufacturing PMI comes out, with an estimated increase from the previous 53.2 to 54.2. Similar to the other two indicators, higher values usually strengthen the currency.

GBP/USD

The Pound continued its climb yesterday and broke the resistance level located at 1.6650 on the back of speculation that Bank of England may raise the interest rate if the economy keeps improving.

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Technical Outlook

Although the latest movement favors the bulls, the Relative Strength Index has been hovering above the 70 level for a few days and a move lower is probable. The first barrier for this potential move lower is located at 1.6650, followed by 1.6600, while 1.6750 is the main resistance in front of rising prices, although we don�t anticipate such a strong rally unless surprising numbers are posted for today�s economic indicators.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will be affected today by the release of the British Manufacturing PMI scheduled at 8:30 am GMT and estimated to slightly decrease from 56.9 to 56.7. The indicator is based on the opinions of about 600 purchasing managers and usually strengthens the Pound if it posts better than anticipated numbers. US data will also affect the pair�s behavior.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan
The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.
Source of article from the best forex broker.

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: ADP NON FARM EMPLOYMENT DATA LIKELY TO PUT AN END TO MARKET INDECISION


EUR/USD

Forex News: The Manufacturing PMIs released yesterday didn�t have a huge impact on the pair, mostly because their value was close to the anticipated one and as a result, price moved in a narrow, 50 pip range.

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Technical Outlook

Yesterday price traveled north, towards the resistance located at 1.3830 but the day was slow, as mentioned before. The four hour candles show long wicks at their upper side, a fact which indicates rejection and a potential move lower but the Relative Strength Index didn�t reach an overbought condition so the bullish move might continue until 1.3830 is reached. To the down side, 1.3760 remains support, followed by 1.3710.

Fundamental Outlook

The Euro has a calm day ahead in terms of economic releases and the most important data of the day comes from the United States in the form of the ADP Non Farm Employment Change. This report is released by a privately owned company (Automatic Data Processing Inc.) and shows changes in the number of employed persons during the previous month. Today�s indicator is less important than the Government issued data which comes out Friday but a higher value is regarded as beneficial for the US economy and has the potential to bring the pair lower. The time of the release is 12:15 pm GMT and the expected number is 192K, a hefty increase from the previous 139K.

GBP/USD

United Kingdom�s Manufacturing PMI did not meet expectations and this weakened the Pound throughout the day, allowing the pair to move lower and to break the minor support located at 1.6650.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/2014.04.02-ADP-Non-Farm-Employment-data-likely-to-put-an-end-to-market-indecision-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

For a few days the Relative Strength Index was showing an overbought condition and yesterday the pair retraced lower, partially helped by this state of the indicator. However, lately the pair was controlled by the bulls and yesterday�s move might be just a retracement, especially if price will quickly move above 1.6650. Important support sits at 1.6600 and a move below it would put the bears in short term control of the pair.
Fundamental Outlook
The British Construction Purchasing Managers� Index is scheduled for release today at 8:30 am GMT, with an anticipated increase from 62.6 to 63.1. The construction sector is an important part of the British economy and higher than anticipated values are considered beneficial for the Pound. The US release mentioned earlier will also have a direct impact on the pair�s movement.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan
The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.
Source of article from the best forex broker.

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: A CRUCIAL DAY FOR THE EURO � ECB INTEREST RATE AND PRESS CONFERENCE AHEAD

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair moved lower yesterday after the ADP Non Farm Employment report posted a reading of 191K, very close to the anticipated 192K. Although the number wasn�t better than anticipated, it was still a hefty increase from the previous value and the US dollar strengthened as a result.

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Technical Outlook

The drop seen yesterday is a sign that bears are trying to take back control of the pair but the support located at 1.3760 couldn�t be broken, despite the strength exhibited by the greenback. If this support level is not broken quickly and price stalls or even bounces higher, it could be a sign that Euro still has underlying strength and that moves higher could follow. We have a very important day ahead as the ECB announces the Rate decision and S/R levels will probably be broken but the direction depends mainly on what ECB President Mario Draghi will say during the Press Conference.

Fundamental Outlook

The ECB will announce the Euro Zone Interest Rate today at 11:45 am GMT (no change expected from the current 0.25%) but the main event of the day is the Press Conference which follows at 12:30 pm GMT. During this press conference, Mario Draghi will read a prepared statement and then he will answer journalists� questions; this second part of the conference is usually the one that creates the strongest moves as traders try to interpret his attitude and find hints about the Euro�s next direction.
GBP/USD
United Kingdom�s construction PMI released yesterday posted a lower than anticipated value, generating a weakening of the Pound. Good US employment data strengthened the US Dollar but although all ingredients were present for a major drop, this did not occur and the pair had slow movement.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/2014.04.03-A-crucial-day-for-the-Euro-ECB-Interest-Rate-and-Press-Conference-ahead-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

The pair is trading below 1.6650 but the overall movement is sideways and neither bulls nor bears are in clear control. The Relative Strength Index doesn�t show an extreme condition of the market so it doesn�t offer many clues regarding the next move and at the moment our bias is neutral on the pair, expecting a strong move in either direction. The main levels are 1.6600 as support, and 1.6750 as resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

AT 8:30 am GMT the British Services PMI is released, but no change is expected from the current 58.2. A higher reading is regarded as beneficial for the Pound as the survey based on the opinions of purchasing managers from the Services sector and acts as an indicator of economic health.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan
The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.
Source of article from the best forex broker.

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: US NON FARM EMPLOYMENT REPORT � A HIGHLY ANTICIPATED MARKET MOVER

EUR/USD


Forex News: The ECB Interest Rate remained unchanged as expected but Mario Draghi�s comments about �unconventional� measures against deflation were perceived as bearish for the Euro and took the pair into major support.

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Technical Outlook

Yesterday�s move puts the bears back in control of the pair, but an important barrier sits in front of falling prices: the support level located at 1.3710. If this support will be broken today, the next medium term target is 1.3550 but for the moment the Relative Strength Index is approaching oversold territory and support is still intact so retracements higher are possible. Today is an important day as US employment data is released and will probably overshadow the technical aspect.

Fundamental Outlook

The release of the US Non Farm Employment report is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and the expected figure is 199k, an increase from the previous 175K. Rising levels of employment are crucial for the American economy and suggest that consumer spending is likely to increase in the near future, a fact considered bullish by market participants. Almost always this indicator is a huge market mover and has a major impact on price action so we recommend caution if trading at the time.

GBP/USD

Throughout yesterday�s trading session the pair had a bearish behavior, moving south of 1.6600 support on the back of a worse than anticipated value of the British Services PMI.

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Technical Outlook

The current momentum is bearish and price broke 1.6600 to the down side once again. Under normal circumstances, this move could be easily continued during today�s trading session but the release of the US employment report will be the main event of the day and will probably dictate direction. The most important levels to watch are 1.6600 as resistance and 1.6480 as support.
Fundamental Outlook
We have a slow day ahead in terms of British economic data and all focus will be on the US Non Farm Employment Change which has the potential to strengthen or weaken the greenback considerably, thus affecting the pair directly.
We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: PREPARING FOR A SLOW MONDAY, WHICH LACKS MAJOR ECONOMIC RELEASES

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Employment data which came out Friday showed that fewer people were employed during the previous month but the number was close to estimates so the market did not travel a substantial distance in either direction.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/2014.04.07-Preparing-for-a-slow-Monday-which-lacks-major-economic-releases-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

Although the pair moved below the important level of 1.3710, we consider that moves above it are still a distinct possibility. This is based on the fact that the break wasn�t a clear, decisive one and the Relative Strength Index is indicating an oversold condition, which makes moves higher more probable. If price will indeed move north, 1.3760 will act as resistance but keep in mind that the latest momentum favors the bears so moves lower are not out of the question. We may also experience a slow trading day because the fundamental scene lacks major economic releases.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Industrial Production indicator is released at 6:00 am GMT with an anticipated decrease from the previous 0.8% to 0.3%. The indicator measures the total output of German industries and higher numbers are perceived as bullish for the Euro, considering the fact that Germany�s economy is an important part of the entire Euro Zone economy. However, the indicator is considered to have a medium-impact on the pair�s movement.

GBP/USD

Friday was a day with a lot of choppy movement, which was very difficult to trade, especially on the lower time frames. This was mostly due to the US Non Farm Employment report that posted a reading close to the anticipated value.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/2014.04.07-Preparing-for-a-slow-Monday-which-lacks-major-economic-releases-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

The pair is trading below the level of 1.6600 and the Relative Strength Index is not showing signs of an oversold market. This makes us believe that lower moves will follow, but before that can happen, price will probably touch 1.6600 again. First support is located at 1.6480 but such a distance is less likely to be traveled today; resistance is located at 1.6600, followed by 1.6650.

Fundamental Outlook

Today�s trading session lacks British data releases, a fact which may bring us slow and potentially ranging price action.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: POUND HIGHLY AFFECTED BY TWO IMPORTANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS

EUR/USD

Forex News: For almost the entire duration of yesterday�s trading session the bulls were in control of the pair�s movement and managed to take price above 1.3710. The German Industrial Production indicator posted a reading close to estimates and didn�t affect price action substantially.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/2014.04.08-Pound-highly-affected-by-two-important-economic-indicators-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

The oversold condition signaled previously by the Relative Strength Index helped the bulls to take price above 1.3710 yesterday and for today�s trading session we anticipate a touch of 1.3760 followed by a move lower, possibly into 1.3700 zone again. If the RSI becomes overbought in the mean time, chances of a drop will increase.

Fundamental Outlook

The US Job Openings will be released today at 2:00 pm GMT, with an anticipated increase from the previous 3.97M to 3.99M. This is not a high impact indicator but it is focused on the jobs sector which is always important for the US economy and usually better than expected numbers strengthen the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The pair experienced a bullish trading session yesterday and moved above major resistance once again. Although price moved in a single direction for almost the entire day, the distance traveled was not huge and overall, trading was calm.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/2014.04.08-Pound-highly-affected-by-two-important-economic-indicators-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

For today�s trading session we anticipate a move lower, below 1.6600 but before that happens, a touch of 1.6650 resistance is a strong possibility. Neither bulls nor bears are in clear control of the pair but a decisive move below 1.6600 will make 1.6480 the next lower target. The United Kingdom has a busy day ahead in terms of economic releases so the technical aspect will be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

UK�s Manufacturing Production will be released today at 8:30 am GMT; the forecast is a slight decrease from the previous 0.4% to 0.3%, a fact which would weaken the Pound since the manufacturing sector is of major importance to the British economy and makes up for about 80% of the entire Industrial production. The second important release of the day is the NIESR estimate of the British Gross Domestic Product, which comes out at 2:00 pm GMT. The estimated figure is 0.8% and higher values will probably take the pair north, on the back of Pound strength.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: FOMC MEETING MINUTES � THE DECIDING FACTOR OF THE DAY


EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the US Dollar exhibited weakness against most of its counterparts and this allowed the Euro to take the pair higher, above the resistance located at 1.3760. Throughout the day the bulls showed almost complete control of the pair.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/2014.04.09-FOMC-Meeting-Minutes-the-deciding-factor-of-the-day-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

Although the bulls are in control of short term movement, the Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart has moved above the level of 70, a fact which indicates an overbought market. This implies that retracements lower might occur today, especially if the pair touches 1.3830. The level of 1.3760 will probably become support and has the ability to reject price higher.

Fundamental Outlook

An important US event is scheduled today at 6:00 pm GMT: the FOMC Meeting Minutes which contain details about the latest Fed Meeting and the reasons that influenced the votes regarding the Federal Funds Rate. Hints about future monetary decisions may also be present, a fact which highly influences the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The British Manufacturing Production surprisingly increased from the anticipated 0.3% to 1.0% and the Pound strengthened substantially as a result. The entire day was controlled by the bulls and resistance levels were broken with ease.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/2014.04.09-FOMC-Meeting-Minutes-the-deciding-factor-of-the-day-pic2-1024x477.png


Technical Outlook

Considering the latest strength showed by the Pound, we anticipate a move above 1.6750 resistance but before that can happen, a bearish retracement is expected. The Relative Strength Index is deep in overbought territory, a fact which adds to our belief that a move lower will occur before other advances will take place.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will be affected today by the release of the British Trade Balance which tracks the difference between imported and exported goods. Although it is considered a medium impact indicator, surprising numbers can move the pair significantly. The release is scheduled at 8:30 am GMT and the anticipated number is -9.3B, an increase from the previous -9.8B. Of course, the FOMC Meeting Minutes will have a direct impact on price direction.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: OVERBOUGHT MARKETS CALL FOR A RETRACEMENT

EUR/USD

Forex News: During yesterday�s trading session, the pair touched 1.3830 and US Dollar weakness generated by the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes pushed price even higher. The Minutes showed that speculation of an early rate increase might be wrong, a fact which triggered the mentioned greenback weakness.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/2014.04.10-Overbought-markets-call-for-a-retracement-pic1-1024x477.png


Technical Outlook

The market is controlled by the bulls and moves higher are anticipated. However, the Relative Strength Index is showing a severe overbought condition and this makes a move lower highly probable. The first level of interest to the down side is 1.3830 and if price will touch it, bullish movement is likely to resume.
Fundamental Outlook
The European Central Bank will release at 8:00 am GMT the Monthly Bulletin which contains information regarding the financial and economic data which was taken into consideration when the ECB decided at what level to set the interest rate. The Bulletin will also contain the Bank�s view on the current and future economic situation.
Some volatility may also be triggered by the G20 Meetings which take place today in Washington DC. One of the main subjects will be the Russia � Ukraine crisis, a topic which created strong movement in the past.

GBP/USD

The pair had slow movement ahead of the FOMC Meeting Minutes, but it started to pick up speed once the Minutes were released and price moved comfortably above 1.6750 resistance.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/2014.04.10-Overbought-markets-call-for-a-retracement-pic2-1024x477.png


Technical Outlook

The clear break of 1.6750 opens the door for a touch and even a break of the year�s high located at 1.6822. Even if the momentum belongs to the bulls and the US Dollar shows clear signs of weakness, a dip lower is expected because the pair moved almost 250 pips without a retracement. Adding to this is the overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index so we expect a move into 1.6750 before price continues higher to touch 1.6822.

Fundamental Outlook

The Bank of England will release today at 11:00 am GMT the interest rate which is not expected to change from the current 0.50% but almost always volatility accompanies this event. The Asset Purchase Facility will be announced at the same time; no change is expected (currently the value is 375 billion Pounds) but a higher value usually weakens the Pound while a lower one is considered bullish. If the Rate or the Asset Purchase Facility is modified in any way, an official statement will be released by the Bank of England, explaining the reasons which determined this decision.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: US RETAIL SALES GENERATE STRONG MOVES

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday was a slow day for the pair and the US Dollar struggled to drive the pair down but didn�t succeed although better than anticipated economic data was released by the United States.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/2014.04.14-US-Retail-Sales-generate-strong-moves-pic1-1024x477.png


Technical Outlook

On a four hour chart we can notice the fact that the Relative Strength Index started to move down, out of the overbought territory where it stayed for most of last week. This is indicative of a potential retracement lower, which will most likely touch 1.3830 support. Of course, price can continue to move north today as well, because indicators can signal an overbought condition for extended periods of time; if this is the case resistance will be provided by the level of 1.3965.

Fundamental Outlook

Euro Zone�s Industrial Production is released today at 9:00 am, with an estimated increase from the previous -0.2% to 0.3%. Higher than anticipated numbers usually strengthen the Euro but the indicator doesn�t have a high impact on the market. The main event of the day is the release of the US Retail Sales scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. Retail sales are crucial for the overall state of the economy and higher values are considered bullish for the greenback; today�s forecast is an increase from the previous 0.3% to 0.8%.

GBP/USD

The pair retraced lower Friday and this move was generated by the positive US data we mentioned earlier; however, this doesn�t change the fact that bulls are in control of the pair�s direction.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/2014.04.14-US-Retail-Sales-generate-strong-moves-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

As we mentioned in our Weekly analysis, the pair printed a double top at 1.6820, which is a bearish chart pattern. We anticipate another move up, into this resistance zone and we believe that if price indeed moves there, it will offer hints about future direction: a bounce would indicate that bears are stepping in and a stronger retracement lower is in order, while a break will most likely bring more buyers in the market. Today�s important levels are 1.6750 and 1.6680 as potential support.

Fundamental Outlook

Price action will be mostly influenced by the US Retail Sales and by technical factors as the United Kingdom doesn�t release any high-impact economic data.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

2014.04.15 :Retracements complete. Can the bulls resume the uptrend?

EUR/USD

Forex News: The release of the American Retail Sales didn�t create the expected strong movement but the week opened with a gap down which was mostly due to dovish comments made by Mario Draghi during the weekend.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/2014.04.15-Retracements-complete.-Can-the-bulls-resume-the-uptrend-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
During yesterday�s trading session the pair moved below the level located at 1.3830 but today we expect a move back up above this level and possibly an uptrend resumption. For the time being, Monday�s move lower is just a retracement and also a good place for more buyers to join the uptrend so our bias is bullish. A move below 1.3760 would severely weaken this uptrend and would put the bears in control.

Fundamental Outlook
The German ZEW Economic Sentiment will be the day�s main release for the Euro. Scheduled at 9:00 am GMT, the indicator is expected to decrease to a value of 45 from the previous 46.6, a fact which would most likely weaken the Euro and drive the pair lower. The US Consumer Price Index which is one of the main gauges of inflation will be released later in the day, at 12:30 pm GMT. The forecast is an increase to 1.4% from 1.1% and if it comes true, we will most likely see US Dollar strength and moves lower for the pair.

GBP/USD

Yesterday�s trading session was rather slow, with the pair moving south during the first part of the day and climbing during the second. The pair had a high-to-low range of less than 50 pips and no special developments took place.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/2014.04.15-Retracements-complete.-Can-the-bulls-resume-the-uptrend-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook
We anticipate an increase in traveled distance and stronger moves today. The bulls still have underlying strength so they are likely to take price above 1.6750, in an attempt to break the double top formed at 1.6822/20. To the down side, the first level of interest remains 1.6680 and a move below it would open the door for another break of 1.6600 support.

Fundamental Outlook
The main Pound-affecting event today is the release of United Kingdom�s Consumer Price Index which is scheduled at 8:30 am GMT. The CPI is closely watched by the Bank of England when the Interest Rate decision is made, hence the importance of this indicator. Higher than expected values usually strengthen the Pound and take the pair higher. Also, the pair�s direction will be affected by the release of the US Consumer Price Index.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer�s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: LAST ECONOMIC RELEASES BEFORE THE EASTER HOLIDAYS

EUR/USD

Forex News: Euro Zone�s Consumer Price Index came out as expected, with a value of 0.5% and the US Building Permits didn�t post a surprise either. As a result, the pair lacked clear direction yesterday and price moved above and below 1.3830.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/2014.04.17-Last-economic-releases-before-the-Easter-Holidays-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

The bulls tried to take the pair above 1.3830 but the move was almost immediately reversed, a fact which shows underlying bear strength. However, once price moved below 1.3830, it just remained there and no strong moves occurred. This indicates that indecision is present in the market and almost anything can happen until a clear move is made by either bulls or bears. Our bias is neutral at the moment, in anticipation of a clear display of power from either side. The levels to watch are 1.3900 as resistance and 1.3760 as support.

Fundamental Outlook

The day�s most important events come from the US today: the Unemployment Claims are released at 12:30 pm GMT and anticipated to increase to 316K from last week�s 300K. A higher level of unemployment is detrimental to the US economy and to the US Dollar but the impact of the indicator is not consistent, mostly because it is released every week. The second economic release is the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index which is a leading indicator of economic health focused on manufacturing performance in the Philadelphia district. Higher numbers than today�s anticipated 9.6 usually strengthen the greenback, driving the pair lower.

GBP/USD

Yesterday the Pound scored another victory versus the US Dollar on the back of a better than expected value of Unemployment Rate. As a result, the pair broke 1.6750 resistance and touched 1.6820 again.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/2014.04.17-Last-economic-releases-before-the-Easter-Holidays-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

Price touched the resistance zone formed around 1.6820 for the third time, creating a Triple Top, which is a bearish pattern and is usually seen at the end of an uptrend. This is a major sign that moves south will follow if this triple top cannot be broken soon. The first level that can offer support is 1.6750 but we might also experience a ranging day because no major news releases are scheduled for the Pound.

Fundamental Outlook

Market participants will shift their attention towards the US for the releases mentioned above since the United Kingdom didn�t schedule any news for today. The approaching of the Easter holidays may generate irregular movement and possibly increased volatility.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: MAJOR BANKS ARE CLOSED, GENERATING IRREGULAR PRICE ACTION

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Euro bulls controlled the beginning of yesterday�s trading session and took the pair above 1.3830 but price soon dropped below this level and overall trading lacked clear direction.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/2014.04.18-Major-Banks-are-closed-generating-irregular-price-action-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

The pair will most likely have a behavior which will be difficult to trade due to the fact that major banks around the world will be closed in celebration of Good Friday; this will generate low liquidity and sudden surges of volatility. Moves back above 1.3830 are a distinct possibility but moves lower are not out of the question either and that�s why we recommend caution if trading today.

Fundamental Outlook

Today there will be no data releases as most banks and brokerages are closed in observance of Good Friday.

GBP/USD

Yesterday we saw a break of the major resistance located at 1.6820 but the bears took control of the pair as soon as positive US data was released, taking price back below resistance.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/2014.04.18-Major-Banks-are-closed-generating-irregular-price-action-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

Similar to the EUR/USD and probably to all pairs, the Cable will have a low-volume trading session which will be characterized by abnormal volatility and movement. Caution is recommended and potential breakouts shouldn�t be considered valid until volatility is back to normal.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn�t schedule any financial indicator releases today and the same is true for the United States.
We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you Happy Easter!

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: MARKETS TAKE A BREAK FOR EASTER


EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday price moved in a range of about 15 pips which was almost impossible to trade. This behavior was triggered by the fact that many brokerages and banks were closed, celebrating Good Friday.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/2014.04.21-Markets-take-a-break-for-Easter-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

Today no movement is anticipated because banks and brokerages around the world are closed due to Easter Holidays. The market takes a break and once trading resumes, 1.3830 is the first level to watch for a bounce or break scenario.

Fundamental Outlook

Due to Easter Monday, no important economic or financial indicators are released today.

GBP/USD

The pair also moved sideways Friday as most traders took the day off and volume was extremely thin.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/2014.04.21-Markets-take-a-break-for-Easter-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

The day will lack movement and most markets around the world will be closed today. The important levels to watch once action resumes are 1.6820 and 1.6750.

Fundamental Outlook

The fundamental scene is quiet today, for the reasons mentioned above.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: VOLUME BACK TO NORMAL. THE MARKET IS LIKELY TO REVEAL ITS REAL DIRECTION

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair moved slowly yesterday, but had a higher range than expected, considering that many banks around the world were closed, celebrating Easter. No economic indicators were released but the US Dollar took the pair lower.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/2014.04.22-Volume-back-to-normal.-The-market-is-likely-to-reveal-its-real-direction-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

We saw an almost perfect bounce lower once price touched 1.3830 resistance and price started to head towards 1.3760 support. However, this movement cannot be considered a clear sign that bears try to take control of price direction and it�s rather just a behavior generated by low volume. Today�s price action will offer better hints about the next medium term direction and the main levels to watch remain 1.3830 and 1.3760.

Fundamental Outlook

All major banks will be open today so volatility is returning to normal but only one important economic indicator is released: The US Existing Home Sales. The indicator shows the annualized number of homes sold during the previous month and better figures usually have a positive impact on the US Dollar. The time of the release is 2:00 pm GMT and the expected number is 4.57M, while the previous was 4.60M.

GBP/USD

Similar to the EUR/USD, the Cable bounced off resistance yesterday but the movement was slow and the pair moved in a tight range.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/2014.04.22-Volume-back-to-normal.-The-market-is-likely-to-reveal-its-real-direction-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

Now that Easter is behind us, we expect to see where the pair is really headed. The resistance located at 1.6820 rejected price as soon as it was touched and under normal circumstances we would anticipate a touch of 1.6750 or at least a clear move towards it. However, because the pair is in a long term uptrend, another move into 1.6820 or even above it is not out of the question.

Fundamental Outlook

Today no economic data comes out of the United Kingdom and price action will be mostly influenced by technical factors and by the US release mentioned earlier.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: MANUFACTURING PMIS AND BOE MEETING MINUTES RESTORE VOLATILITY

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair continued to move without clear direction yesterday and the slightly better than anticipated value of the US Existing Home Sales didn�t trigger a sharp drop even if some US Dollar strength could be seen at the time of the release.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/2014.04.23-Manufacturing-PMIs-and-BoE-Meeting-Minutes-restore-volatility-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

Although the picture is not clear and movement is rather ranging, we can notice some rejection off 1.3830 resistance, which is a sign that 1.3760 might be touched today. We slightly favor the down side but we acknowledge the fact that yesterday�s price action is not very conclusive. The Euro Zone will release 2 economic indicators today so the pair�s direction will be influenced by them, especially because the technical aspect is unclear.

Fundamental Outlook

France announces the Manufacturing PMI at 7:00 am GMT. Analysts expect a very small increase from 51.8 to 51.9 and higher values usually strengthen the Euro since the indicator acts as a gauge of optimism among purchasing managers who activate in the Manufacturing sector. At 7:30 am GMT, the German Manufacturing PMI is released and expected to increase from 53.7 to 53.9.

The US New Home Sales numbers come out at 2:00 pm GMT, with an increase anticipated: 455K from the previous 440K. A higher number than forecast could take the pair lower on the back of greenback strength.

GBP/USD

Slowly but surely the Pound climbed above the major resistance located at 1.6820 and the better than expected value of the US Existing Home Sales couldn�t generate enough downward momentum to bring price below the mentioned level.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/2014.04.23-Manufacturing-PMIs-and-BoE-Meeting-Minutes-restore-volatility-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

The Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart is approaching the level of 70 which indicates an overbought condition of the market; although this is not a sign of clear reversal on its own, it makes further advancements more difficult. We favor a move below 1.6820 unless the bulls can show a quick and clear proof of strength (clear move above the mentioned level). The first support level is located at 1.6750.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the Minutes of the latest Bank of England Meeting are released. The document will outline the reasons which stood behind the Interest Rate decision and will contain the breakdown of the members� votes. The Minutes also allow traders to see how many members are changing their stance regarding the value of the interest rate, thus offering clues about future rate direction.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: INDECISION STILL PLAYS A MAJOR ROLE IN THE MARKET

EUR/USD

Forex News: During a speech at a conference in Amsterdam, Mario Draghi mentioned that �both unconventional and conventional instruments� will be used to deal with the possible threat of deflation. His comment weakened the Euro and allowed the pair to move lower initially but later in the day, growing turmoil in Ukraine generated another climb.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/2014.04.25-Indecision-still-plays-a-major-role-in-the-market-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

Indecision is still present in the market as we saw yesterday from the multiple changes of direction. Price is still struggling without success to break 1.3830 to the north and on the other hand, bears cannot drive the pair lower. We are still expecting a stronger move which will determine the next medium term bias but the direction of that move is hard to predict. The important levels to watch are 1.3760 as support and 1.3830 as immediate resistance, followed by 1.3900.

Fundamental Outlook

Today no major indicator releases are scheduled by either Europe or the United States so traders will focus on the technical factors.

GBP/USD

The pair had a slow day and the drop seen Wednesday couldn�t be continued yesterday. Instead, bulls and bears alternated their control over the pair numerous times, creating a difficult trading environment.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/2014.04.25-Indecision-still-plays-a-major-role-in-the-market-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

Although yesterday�s trading session lacked clear direction, we still believe that a move into 1.6750 support is in order, but since the pair is ranging lately, we don�t exclude the possibility of moves into 1.6820 resistance. Today the technical aspect will be somewhat secondary because the only major indicator of the day comes from the United Kingdom and this is likely to have a big impact on the pair�s movement.

Fundamental Outlook

The indicator we mentioned above is United Kingdom�s Retail Sales; the release is scheduled at 8:30 am GMT and the anticipated value is -0.4%, a sharp drop from the previous 1.7%. Such a drop would be detrimental for the Pound because sales made at a retail level are an important part of the entire economic activity.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

Forex News: A slow Monday ahead; no major indicators are released


EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the pair moved in a 20 pip range and no economic data was released by the United States or Europe, making trading very difficult.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/2014.04.28-A-slow-Monday-ahead-no-major-indicators-are-released-pic1-1024x477.png


Technical Outlook

A 20 pip range is certainly not enough for proper technical analysis and holds almost no clues for future direction. Price has moved above 1.3830 but this cannot be considered a real break, especially because lately this level has been pierced several times. Our bias is neutral until a strong move occurs, which will most likely determine the pair�s next direction. For the moment 1.3760 is support and resistance sits at 1.3900.

Fundamental Outlook

The day is pretty slow in terms of economic releases and the only indicator worth mentioning is the US Pending Home Sales which offers insights into the American house market and has the potential to strengthen the US Dollar if it posts a higher value than the anticipated 1.0%. The release is scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT.

GBP/USD

Market participants expected the UK Retail Sales to generate strong volatility but after a quick surge up, the move slowed and then reversed almost completely, making Friday another difficult day for intraday trading.


http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/2014.04.28-A-slow-Monday-ahead-no-major-indicators-are-released-pic2-1024x477.png


Technical Outlook

Friday the bulls made another attempt to break the level of 1.6820 but this resulted in a bounce lower, showing that resistance is holding, thus increasing the chances of a move lower. We don�t expect major moves today, mainly because no major news comes out, but the levels to watch remain 1.6820 as resistance and 1.6750 as support.

Fundamental Outlook

Price movement will be mainly affected by the US housing data and by the technical aspect of the market as the United Kingdom didn�t schedule any economic or financial indicator releases.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

Forex News: German CPI and British GDP – the market-movers of the day

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair experienced a sudden rally, which was short lived because the better than expected value of the US Pending Home Sales strengthened the US Dollar and brought price lower, in close vicinity to 1.3830.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/2014.04.29-German-CPI-and-British-GDP-the-market-movers-of-the-day-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

What appeared to be a strong move away from 1.3830 proved to be a single impulse which was quickly reversed, showing us that bulls lack determination and strength to drive price higher. If price returns below 1.3830, the next target will be the support at 1.3760. The pair continues to trade without clear direction and the technical aspect will be secondary today because important data is released.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Consumer Price Index is released today at 12:00 pm GMT and expected to increase to 1.4% from the current 1.0%. Such an increase would be beneficial for the Euro, especially because German inflation influences the entire Euro Zone. The United States release at 2:00 pm GMT the Consumer Confidence, a leading indicator of consumer spending. For today’s release, an increase is forecast, from the previous 82.3 to 82.9. Higher values for this indicator usually strengthen the US Dollar and push the pair lower.

GBP/USD

Speculation that today we will see a better than expected value of the UK Gross Domestic Product brought yesterday the pair higher, but similar to the EUR/USD, the rally was soon reversed.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/2014.04.29-German-CPI-and-British-GDP-the-market-movers-of-the-day-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s high located at 1.6858 will most likely act as resistance if price touches it again but if it is surpassed, the next resistance is located at 1.6880 (visible on a weekly chart). The first support sits at 1.6750 and since yesterday’s move up is not convincing and was quickly reversed, we favor a drop towards the mentioned support.

Fundamental Outlook

The technical aspect will be somewhat secondary today because United Kingdom’s Gross Domestic Product is released at 8:30 am GMT. An increase is expected, from the previous 2.7% to 3.2% and if this prediction comes true, the Pound will most likely strengthen because the GDP is an economy’s main gauge of overall performance. As always, the pair will be also influenced by the US data released throughout the day.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: EUROPE FOCUSES ON THE CPI WHILE THE US DOLLAR WILL BE INFLUENCED BY SEVERAL HIGH IMPACT RELEASES

EUR/USD

Forex News: The German Consumer Price Index posted a lower than expected value, weakening the Euro and allowing the bears to take control of the pair and to take price below 1.3830.

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Technical Outlook

In light of recent events it looks like the resistance at 1.3900 will not be tested soon as the pair seems to be headed towards 1.3760 support. If this move does occur, the first barrier which needs to be broken is the support at 1.3790 but a lot depends on the value which will be posted today by the European CPI so the technical aspect will be somewhat secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

The European Consumer Price Index, which is the region�s most important inflation measure, will be released today at 9:00 am GMT and expected to increase from the current 0.5% to 0.8%. The ECB tries to maintain inflation just below 2% so the current value is considered too low and a figure which doesn�t meet or surpass expectations will most likely weaken the Euro. The ADP Non Farm Employment report will be released at 12:15 pm GMT and although it doesn�t have the huge impact of the government issued indicator (which comes out Friday), numbers above 203K will have a positive impact on the US Dollar.

At 12:30 pm GMT the US Gross Domestic Product is released and a decrease is anticipated: 1.2% from last month�s 2.6%. Such a drop would signify a slower economy, with decreased activity, thus weakening the greenback. Later in the day, at 6:00 pm GMT the US Interest Rate is announced (no change anticipated from the current <0.25%), together with the FOMC Statement which will outline the reasons which stood behind the rate decision and will also show if the Fed will further trim the monetary stimulus (also known as quantitative easing).

GBP/USD

Yesterday�s main event for the Pound was the release of the Gross Domestic Product which showed a lower value than analysts expected and this took the pair lower; soon after, the bulls took price back up, creating a difficult to trade environment.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/2014.04.30-Europe-focuses-on-the-CPI-while-the-US-Dollar-will-be-influenced-by-several-high-impact-releases-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

The pair had a mixed day yesterday, with a lot of sharp turns and no clear direction but another move below 1.6820 would be indicative of bear strength and would suggest the uptrend is severely weakened. The Relative Strength Index doesn�t show an extreme condition of the market and price action does not favor a specific direction so today the pair�s movement will be highly affected by the fundamental aspect of the market.

Fundamental Outlook

Although today the United Kingdom doesn�t release major data, the day will probably have strong movement as the US events will most likely have a huge impact on price direction.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: LABOR DAY GENERATES A DAY WITH LOW VOLUME

EUR/USD

Forex News: Although the European CPI didn�t meet expectations of 0.8%, it showed that inflation started to pick up and posted a reading of 0.7%, an increase from the previous 0.5%. This fact strengthened the Euro and the pair climbed strongly. The Fed decided to further cut bond purchases by another $10 billion a fact which was anticipated by market participants and didn�t create a lot of volatility.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/image001-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.3790 was tested yesterday and it rejected higher the initial fall seen at the time of the CPI release. The US Dollar shows signs of weakness so we might see a touch of 1.3900 resistance sooner than anticipated. For the moment the first support sits at 1.3830 and the latest momentum belongs to the bulls so moves north are likely to happen, at least until the Relative Strength Index becomes overbought.

Fundamental Outlook

Most European banks will be closed today in celebration of Labor Day and this may translate into irregular movement and low volume. Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak at 12:30 pm GMT at a summit in Washington DC and this will most likely affect the pair�s movement, especially if she will offer hints about future monetary policy. The US Dollar will also be affected today by the release of the Manufacturing PMI which is a survey of about 400 purchasing managers, focused on their opinions regarding business conditions in the manufacturing sector. The release is scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT and an increase is expected, from the previous 53.7 to 54.3, a fact which would strengthen the greenback.

GBP/USD

Yesterday the US Gross Domestic Product posted a much worse than anticipated value which allowed the Pound to take the pair into the resistance located at 1.6880.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/image003-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

The bulls scored another major victory by taking price into the resistance at 1.6880, a quote that was last seen in November 2009. Such a high price is hard to sustain and we will most likely see retracements lower but keep in mind that bulls control the pair and further advances are not out of the question. The next resistance is located at 1.7040 while support sits at 1.6820.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Manufacturing PMI comes out, with an anticipated value of 55.4, an almost insignificant increase from the previous 55.3. The survey is based on the opinions of about 600 purchasing managers and its effect on the Pound can be a hefty one if a higher than anticipated figure will be posted. As always, the pair�s movement will be affected by the US events as well.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: US NON FARM PAYROLLS � HUGE MOVEMENT AHEAD

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Euro continued to climb yesterday on speculation that the ECB will not introduce any form of quantitative easing, but later in the day a better than expected value of the US Manufacturing PMI brought price back down. However, all this up and down movement took place in a very small range, probably due to low volume generated by Labor Day.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/2014.05.02-US-Non-Farm-Payrolls-huge-movement-ahead-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.3900 wasn�t threatened but bullish moves are expected today, mainly because the momentum favors the buyers. The Relative Strength Index didn�t reach an overbought state so the market is not considered overextended and price can continue upwards. Today is an important day for the US Dollar and the main focus will be on the Non Farm employment report which usually generates huge moves so technical aspects will be overshadowed by this release.

Fundamental Outlook

The US Non Farm Employment Change (also known as Non Farm Payrolls) is released today at 12:30 pm GMT. The estimated figure is 216K, an increase from the previous 192K and if this forecast comes true, we will most likely see US Dollar strength because the NFP is widely regarded as the most important gauge of employment in the United States and is also a leading indicator of consumer spending.

GBP/USD

Manufacturing in the UK showed a surprising improvement yesterday, strengthening the Pound and allowing the pair to climb to 1.6920. Overall we had a mixed trading day with several changes of direction seen on the lower time frames.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/2014.05.02-US-Non-Farm-Payrolls-huge-movement-ahead-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

Yesterday�s high located at 1.6920 will most likely act as resistance today if the pair decides to climb back up again, but from a strictly technical point of view, we expect a move lower which will most likely find support at 1.6880. If this generates a bounce, 1.6920 will become the first bullish target but price action will be heavily influenced by the release of the NFP.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Construction PMI is released today at 8:30 am GMT and expected to decrease slightly from the previous 62.5 to 62.2. Since this is a leading indicator of economic health, higher numbers usually strengthen the Pound but its release often has a lesser impact compared to the Manufacturing PMI (released a day earlier). However, the headline of the day remains the US Non Farm Employment report.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: TENSIONS IN UKRAINE. WEAKNESS SHOWN BY THE US DOLLAR

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday was a difficult day for intraday traders as the US Non Farm Payrolls showed an improvement of the US jobs situation but the pair moved higher after an initial sharp drop. Some of this movement is attributed to heightened tensions and violence in Ukraine.

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Technical Outlook

The pair printed a large pin bar on the support level at 1.3830 and this is indicative of a continued move upwards. The first resistance and target for the pair is 1.3900 but we must keep in mind that US employment is picking up and this may generate US Dollar strength which will be seen in the market once the Ukraine crisis calms down. If this is the case, 1.3830 will act again as support, followed by 1.3790 if a break occurs.

Fundamental Outlook

The Euro Group Meetings take place today, attended by Finance Ministers, The ECB President and other important personalities. Volatility will most likely be present until the meetings conclude so we recommend extra caution. At 2:00 pm GMT the US Non Manufacturing PMI will be released, with an estimated value of 54.3. This is a survey which shows the optimism of purchasing managers from the non-manufacturing sector and better than anticipated values can strengthen the US Dollar but the indicator usually has a lower impact than the Manufacturing PMI.

GBP/USD

A lower value of the United Kingdom Construction PMI weakened the Pound early Friday morning and took the pair lower but after the US Non Farm Payrolls release, the pair sharply climber back up, nullifying an initial bearish impulse.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/2014.05.05-Tensions-in-Ukraine.-Weakness-shown-by-the-US-Dollar-pic2.png


Technical Outlook

The pair barely touched the resistance located at 1.6820 and price immediately started to move north. This shows the underlying strength of the bulls and the fact that more upwards movement is likely to occur today. However, if the pair cannot climb quickly above 1.6880, we will probably see another touch of 1.6820 support.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom�s banks will be closed today, celebrating May Day and no economic or financial data will be released, but the Euro Group Meetings and the US Non Manufacturing PMI will have an impact on price action.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: TIGHT TRADING RANGE. BREAKOUTS ANTICIPATED

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair remained almost flat yesterday, moving in a very narrow range. The US Non Manufacturing PMI posted a value that exceeded estimates, but its release didn�t create a lot of volatility although some strength was exhibited by the US Dollar.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/2014.05.06-Tight-trading-range.-Breakouts-anticipated-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook


Yesterday�s ranging price action doesn�t help to determine the next direction and for the time being, we must wait for stronger moves which will reveal if the power lies with the bulls or with the bears. If price fails to move soon above 1.3900, it would be an indication that bears are entering the market and that 1.3830 will be touched again.

Fundamental Outlook

The day�s headline is the release of the US Trade Balance (12:30 pm GMT) which represents the difference between imported and exported goods. A value above zero shows that United States exports surpass imports but the current value is -42.3 billion US Dollars, a clear deficit; the anticipated value is -40.1 billion US Dollars and any figures closer to zero will most likely strengthen the greenback.

GBP/USD

United Kingdom banks were closed yesterday and the pair had similar movement to EUR/USD, trading in a small range, with some Dollar strength seen once positive data was posted by the US economy.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/2014.05.06-Tight-trading-range.-Breakouts-anticipated-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

Today we will most likely see stronger moves and we expect another attempt to break the level at 1.6880. After the top at 1.6920 was printed, the bulls didn�t manage to take price in that area again and this may be an indication that exhaustion is present and that bears are trying to take control of the pair. If today 1.6880 is not broken decisively, the first potential target is 1.6820.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the Services PMI is released by the United Kingdom and expected to increase slightly from 57.6 to 57.9. The indicator is a survey of purchasing managers from the services sector, which shows their optimism regarding business conditions so better than estimated values are beneficial for the Pound.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: HIGH PRICES BECOME HARD TO SUSTAIN


EUR/USD

Forex News: Finally the pair started to move stronger yesterday as the Spanish Unemployment Change showed much better figures than anticipated. The surprising value of -111.6K (estimated -49.1K) turned this indicator, which is usually overlooked by market participants, into a major market mover.

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Technical Outlook

Yesterday�s impulse is likely to be continued during the days to come but the condition of the Relative Strength Index which is trading above the level of 70 must be taken into consideration. The overbought state of the pair, as indicated by the RSI favors retracements, but as we know, the market can remain overbought for a long time before price actually starts to fall. If retracements do occur, 1.3900 will act as support while resistance is located at 1.3965, followed by the psychological level of 1.4000.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Factory Orders will be announced today at 6:00 am GMT, showing the monthly change in the value or orders placed with manufacturers. Although the indicator usually has a medium impact on the market, better numbers than the anticipated 0.3% can strengthen the Euro. A more important event is scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT: the testimony of Fed Chair Janet Yellen, in Washington DC. She will testify before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress and will answer questions which are not known in advance, a fact which will most likely generate strong moves, depending on her attitude and answers.

GBP/USD

The bulls had a tremendous day yesterday as they managed to take price about 130 pips higher on the back of a better than anticipated value of the UK Services PMI.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/2014.05.07-High-prices-become-hard-to-sustain-pic2-Copy1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

Yesterday�s huge climb renewed the uptrend and made 1.7040 the next target for the pair (visible on a Monthly chart). However, the current price is very high and this makes it hard to sustain; the Relative Strength Index is overbought on hourly, four-hour and daily charts and this enhances the probability of bearish moves. The first potential support is located at 1.6920.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the United Kingdom doesn�t release any major economic indicators, so traders will focus more on the technical aspect and on Janet Yellen�s testimony.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: INTEREST RATES AND PUBLIC SPEECHES. VOLATILITY IS ALMOST CERTAIN

EUR/USD

Forex News: Price action slowed down considerably yesterday compared to the previous day and we saw a small retracement lower which didn�t manage to touch 1.3900. Janet Yellen�s speech generated some volatility but was mostly overlooked by market participants.

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Technical Outlook

The picture remains bullish and moves north are favored after a touch of 1.3900. The Relative Strength Index is just coming out of overbought territory, heading down and that�s why we anticipate a touch of 1.3900 before price can resume upwards movement, headed for 1.3965. However, a lot depends on the ECB stance that will be presented today during the Press Conference.

Fundamental Outlook

At 11:45 am GMT the European Central Bank will announce if any changes were made to the Interest Rate (currently 0.25%) and at 12:30 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will hold a Press Conference during which he will answer journalists� questions and will talk about future monetary policy direction. The Rate is not expected to change but the ECB Press Conference is considered one of the most important events for Euro�s short term movement so we recommend extra caution if trading during it. Fed Chair Janet Yellen will testify today before the Senate Budget Committee and this is another reason for increased volatility but the market�s reaction remains to be seen.

GBP/USD

Similar to the Euro, the Pound retraced yesterday but the bearish move lacked strength and the market was mostly in a ranging state, with a lot of choppy price action.

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Technical Outlook

The Pound is showing tremendous strength lately and yesterday�s bearish movement was not convincing, but a touch of 1.6920 is not out of the question. If this touch occurs, it will most likely trigger a bounce higher and the first barrier in front of rising prices is the latest top created at 1.6996, followed by 1.7040 resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will be affected today by the release of the Official Bank Rate which usually creates volatility even if no change takes place. The event is scheduled at 11:00 am GMT and no change is anticipated from the current 0.50%. Yellen�s testimony later in the day will have an impact as well.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: A REVERSAL IN THE MAKING?

EUR/USD

Forex News: The bears took control of the pair yesterday as ECB President Mario Draghi offered clear hints about an Interest Rate cut in June if the risk of deflation still persists. His comments took the pair almost 150 pips lower after a previous climb which nearly touched the psychological resistance at 1.4000.

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Technical Outlook

Without a doubt, Mario Draghi�s stance favors the bears for the medium term outlook. Today we expect a continuation of yesterday�s move and we are biased towards a touch of 1.3830. The Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart doesn�t indicate an oversold condition so price can move lower before a retracement higher occurs. To the upside, the first level of interest is 1.3900.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Trade Balance (difference in value between imports and exports) will be released today at 6:00 am GMT and it�s expected to increase from 15.7B to 16.9B. Figures that surpass estimates are considered bullish for the Euro, but the indicator is not a high impact one and its release may go unnoticed by the market.

GBP/USD

The Bank of England did not modify the Interest Rate, as anticipated and the pair traded mostly sideways, without clear direction.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/image0031-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

The pair moved yesterday in a small range and neither bulls nor bears made clear statements of power but we maintain our belief that 1.6920 will be touched before bullish moves can occur. Once that happens, a bounce-or-break scenario will be in play: a bounce will indicate trend resumption and another encounter with the top created at 1.6996, while a break will make 1.6880 the first lower target.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom�s Manufacturing Production numbers are released today at 8:30 am GMT. Manufacturing is an important part of the British economy and higher values than the estimated 0.3% (previous was 1.0%) can push the Pound higher. Later in the day, at 2:00 pm GMT, an estimate of the UK Gross Domestic Product will be announced. The current value is 0.9% and any higher number can push the pair north.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: SLUGGISH PRICE ACTION AS THE MARKET CALMS DOWN

EUR/USD

Forex News: The bearish impulse created Mario Draghi�s comments about a possible rate cut in June continued throughout Friday�s trading session and the pair moved substantially lower, breaking two important support levels.

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Technical Outlook

The support at 1.3830 and the one at 1.3790 were broken decisively Friday, scoring an important victory for the bears. These levels are likely to turn into resistance now and the next lower target is 1.3700, but the Relative Strength Index reached oversold territory on a four hour chart and this makes us believe that we will witness a consolidation period. Price will most likely stall or even retrace slightly higher today, before an attempt at breaking 1.3700 will be made.

Fundamental Outlook


The only notable indicator is the US Federal Budget Balance which is announced at 6:00 pm GMT. The estimated figure is 112.6B, compared to last month�s -36.9B and such an increase would be beneficial for the US Dollar so we would most likely see lower prices.

GBP/USD

Manufacturing Production in the UK came out better than anticipated, but lower than the previous value so a slowdown can be seen and this, coupled with a stronger US Dollar, triggered a sharp fall.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/2014.05.12-Sluggish-price-action-as-the-market-calms-down-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

Friday�s strong drop found good support in close vicinity of 1.6820, but we consider that a touch of this level is going to happen today. However, a break is less likely, mostly because no major economic indicators are released today and the Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart is signaling an oversold condition. Potential resistance is located at 1.6880 but keep in mind that bears are in control of short term movement and a touch of this level will probably result in another move south.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom doesn�t release any major indicators today but the US Dollar and consequently the pair will be affected by the US Budget Balance release.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: US RETAIL SALES BRING BACK VOLATILITY


EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair�s movement slowed significantly yesterday and price traded in a narrow range of less than 30 pips. A lot of this was due to the lack of economic data, combined with the fact that usually after strong movement, the market slows down for a while.

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Technical Outlook

We expect action to pick up today and the market to resume the downwards movement seen last week, aiming for 1.3700 support. However, the Relative Strength Index continues to stay below the 30 level so the market is still oversold, increasing the chances of a move up which will most likely find resistance at 1.3790; the next resistance is located at 1.3830 but a touch of this level is not probable today.

Fundamental Outlook

The first important event of the day is the release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment which is scheduled at 9:00 am GMT and expected to decrease from the previous 43.2 to 41.3. Since this is a gauge of optimism among German investors and analysts, better than estimated numbers can push the Euro higher. A more important indicator is released at 12:30 pm GMT: the US Retail Sales. The anticipated change is 0.5%, compared to last month�s 1.2% and usually higher values strengthen the greenback because sales made at a retail level represent a major part of the entire economic activity.

GBP/USD

This pair was slightly more active during yesterday�s trading session but overall we had ranging price action, characterized by an attempt of the bulls to take price above 1.6880.

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Technical Outlook

The failed attempt to break the resistance located at 1.6880 took the Relative Strength Index out of oversold territory, showing that bears still have underlying strength and that a new move south is in order. The target for this move is most likely 1.6820 and from a strictly technical point of view, it can be reached today but the US Retail Sales can prove to be a deciding factor.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn�t schedule economic data releases today so all eyes will be on the United States for the Retail Sales release.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: POUND AFFECTED BY A CLUSTER OF EVENTS; EURO LIKELY TO RETRACE

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday�s main market mover was the German ZEW Economic Sentiment which posted a very disappointing value of 33.1 while the anticipated one was 41.3. This huge gap between estimated and actual figure weakened the Euro substantially and took the pair into major support.

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Technical Outlook

Price fell without first touching the resistance at 1.3790, a fact which indicates clear bear strength and signals a potential reversal of the long term bullish trend. However, the Relative Strength Index spent a considerable amount of time below the 30 level, a fact which indicates an oversold market and gives a heads-up for a move higher. This oversold condition, combined with the fact that price reached an important support level makes us believe that today the pair will either retrace higher or move in a ranging fashion.

Fundamental Outlook

The headline today is the release of the US Producer Price Index, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and expected to decrease from the previous 0.5% to 0.2%. The indicator tracks changes in the price charged by producers for their goods and services and it often signals fluctuations in inflation because a higher price charged by producers will be eventually passed on to the consumer. For today�s release, a figure that surpasses estimates is viewed as beneficial for the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The bears dominated yesterday�s trading session and the disappointing value of the US Retail Sales didn�t do much to help the bulls. The support at 1.6820 was missed by a few pips and overall the pair had a normal trading day, without sharp reversals.

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Technical Outlook

The pair�s direction will be heavily affected today by the fundamental aspect but from a strictly technical point of view, price is likely to penetrate the area between 1.6820 and 1.6750. The momentum still belongs to the bears and attempts to break resistance are quickly reversed; a break above 1.6880 would tip the balance in favor of the bulls but for the time being, there are no clear signs of buying pressure.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT, United Kingdom�s Claimant Count is released, showing the change in the number of unemployed people; the expected figure is -30.7K a small decrease from the previous month�s -30.4K and since the indicator is a gauge of unemployment, lower numbers are beneficial for the Pound. At the same time, UK�s Unemployment Rate is announced, with a small decrease expected, from 6.9% to 6.8% (again, lower numbers strengthen the Pound).

An hour later, at 9:30 am GMT the Bank of England will publish the Inflation Report, containing inflation projections and an economic outlook for the next 2 years. At the same time Governor Mark Carney will hold a Press Conference during which he will discuss the Report. This entire cluster of events can trigger huge volatility and sharp moves so caution is recommended.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: CONSUMER PRICE INDEXES STEAL THE HEADLINES ONCE AGAIN


EUR/USD

Forex News: As expected, the pair had a calm and mostly sideways trading session yesterday. The bulls didn�t manage to take price significantly higher but at least they prevented the bears form making further advances.

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Technical Outlook

Although price retraced slightly yesterday, the move wasn�t enough to clear the oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index, a fact which makes further drops more difficult. Adding to this, bullish divergence is also present (price made a lower low while the RSI only printed a double bottom) so from a strictly technical perspective, moves north are in order. If these moves occur, they must be seen as retracements in a short term downtrend, not necessarily reversals.

Fundamental Outlook

Market participants eagerly await the release of the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index which is scheduled at 9:00 am GMT. This is Euro Zone�s main inflation gauge and the ECB is closely watching it before deciding if monetary stimulus measures will be adopted at their June meeting. The risk of deflation is present and a lower value of the CPI than the estimated 0.7% can weaken the Euro; the opposite applies for a higher value. United States� CPI will be announced today as well, but its importance is lower than the one of the European CPI; the release is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and the anticipated value is 0.3%.

The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is perceived as a high impact indicator which shows the opinions of manufacturers from the Philadelphia district regarding economic and business conditions. The indicator is released at 2:00 pm GMT with an expected figure of 13.9, a decrease from the previous 16.6; higher values are considered bullish for the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The Bank of England Inflation Report was less hawkish than expected and no hints about a near-future rate hike were given. The market perceived this as a dovish attitude of the BoE and as a result the pair had another bearish trading session.

http://res.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/2014.05.15-Consumer-Price-Indexes-steal-the-headlines-once-again-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

The pair pierced through the support located at 1.6820 and even touched 1.6750. We expect bullish moves today even if the control belongs to the bears and we base this opinion on the fact that the current move is reaching an overextended phase and the Relative Strength Index is constantly touching the 30 level. Resistance sits at 1.6820 and if a touch of this level occurs, price is likely to bounce lower.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a calm day in terms of economic data releases so price action will be mostly affected by the technical aspect and by the US indicators mentioned above.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: A CALM END TO A WILD WEEK?

EUR/USD

Forex News: The data released yesterday was mixed but more hints about a rate cut emerged as ECB officials signaled that the Bank is preparing a package of monetary policy measures. The Euro dropped but later in the day it managed to erase all Dollar gains, creating a massive reversal.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/2014.05.16-A-calm-end-to-a-wild-week-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

It looks like the bulls have renewed their interest for the pair, a fact which is normal considering the oversold condition of the market and the bullish divergence present on the four-hour chart. Once this retracement is complete, we expect price to resume downwards movement for another break of 1.3700 en route to 1.3640. The first level of interest that could provide resistance is located at 1.3745.

Fundamental Outlook

The greenback will be affected today by the release of the US Building Permits, an indicator which shows changes in the annualized number of permits issued during the preceding month. An increase suggests a thriving economy, considering that houses are usually built in times of good economic conditions. The release is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and the estimated number is 1.01M compared to the previous 1.0M.


The last important indicator of the week comes out at 1:55 pm GMT: the US Consumer Sentiment. This is a survey which acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending and has the ability to strengthen the US Dollar if better numbers than the anticipated 84.7 are posted.

GBP/USD

The bears unsuccessfully attempted yesterday to break the support at 1.6750 but the bulls managed to finish the day higher, on the back of US Dollar weakness.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/2014.05.16-A-calm-end-to-a-wild-week-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

Yesterday�s bullish move can be seen as a retracement in a short term downtrend but from a Daily chart perspective, we are still in an uptrend and the pair just touched the uptrend line drawn from November last year. In other words, the picture is not clear and different time frame charts say different things. What is certain is that support is still holding at the moment and the confluence zone created by the uptrend line and 1.6750 will be tough to break but if price moves below it, the bears will score a major victory.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a calm day ahead as no major indicators are released by the United Kingdom; price direction will be influenced by the technical aspect and by the US events.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: WEIDMANN�S SPEECH � THE SINGLE HIGHLIGHT OF THE DAY

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday price moved in a small range and neither bulls nor bears managed to make a clear statement of power. US economic data was mixed but it didn�t have a major impact on the pair.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/2014.05.19-Weidmanns-speech-the-single-highlight-of-the-day-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

Lately the pair is moving above and below 1.3700 but if the bulls will manage to reverse the short term downtrend seen last week, the minor resistance that was created at 1.3730 will be the first barrier they need to break. To the south, first support sits at 1.3640 but the chances for it to be broken today are slim, considering the fact that usually Mondays are slow days, especially if no major economic data is released.

Fundamental Outlook

The only event which can trigger strong movement today is the speech of German Bundesbank President Weidmann which is scheduled at 7:00 am GMT. He will speak at a Symposium organized in Frankfurt and if he reveals hints about the ECB�s next move, the market will react strongly as he is believed to be one of the most influential members of the ECB Governing Council.

GBP/USD

The last day of the previous week was almost entirely controlled by the bulls and price traveled to touch the resistance at 1.6820. A disappointing figure for the US Consumer Sentiment played an important role in Friday�s climb.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/2014.05.19-Weidmanns-speech-the-single-highlight-of-the-day-pic2-1024x477.png[/IMG]

Technical Outlook

The pair finished the week right on 1.6820 level but for the moment we cannot know for sure if this was due to price resistance or simply because the trading week ended and the market closed. This question will probably be answered today and we will see if 1.6820 has turned into resistance or if price will continue towards 1.6880. To the downside, 1.6750 remains strong support for the time being.

Fundamental Outlook

We expect slow price action today since there are no important American or British economic releases, but maybe Weidmann�s speech will have a ripple effect which will influence this pair as well.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: INFLATION-RELATED INDICATORS INCREASE VOLATILITY

EUR/USD

Forex News: Trading was rather slow yesterday, with the Euro climbing steadily throughout the day. Bundesbank President Weidmann said that ECB will be closely watching Forex rates before making a policy decision but the comment was mostly overlooked by market participants.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/2014.05.20-Inflation-related-indicators-increase-volatility-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.3730 wasn�t broken decisively yesterday but some bullish pressure can be seen. We consider this latest move up just a retracement and we expect today another attempt at breaking 1.3700. If price moves below this level, the immediate target is located at 1.3650 but a bounce higher would signify that bears are starting to run out of steam and that more bullish action will follow.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Producer Price Index is released today at 6:00 am GMT and expected to increase from the previous -0.3% to 0.0. Changes in the price charged by producers for their goods and services will be have an influence on the price paid by consumers for those goods and services; in other words, the PPI affects inflation and this makes it an important indicator which can strengthen the Euro if higher values are posted.

GBP/USD

Some Pound strength was seen yesterday and the pair moved above 1.6820 as a result, but the bulls didn�t make any substantial advances and we had a small high-to-low range.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/2014.05.20-Inflation-related-indicators-increase-volatility-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

If the pair continues upwards, the first resistance is located at 1.6880 but by the time price gets there, the Relative Strength Index may reach an overbought condition, thus increasing the chances of a bounce lower. To the south, major support is located at 1.6750 but the fundamental aspect will play a major role today and will most likely decide direction.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT, United Kingdom will release the CPI which is the main gauge of inflation and plays a big role in Bank of England�s decision regarding interest rates. A higher value is considered bullish for the Pound while a lower one may drag the currency lower; today�s estimated value is 1.7%, an increase from the previous 1.6%.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: FED AND BOE RELEASE MEETING MINUTES � STRONGER MOVES EXPECTED

EUR/USD

Forex News: The German Producer Price Index showed a decrease and this largely contributed to bearish movement seen throughout the first part of yesterday�s trading session. However, the Euro recovered some of the early losses during the second part of the day.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/2014.05.21-Fed-and-BoE-release-Meeting-Minutes-stronger-moves-expected-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

The market is governed by indecision at the moment but bearish pressure is present to some extent, although movement lacks strength and direction is changed many times. Yesterday�s price action was slow and this makes an accurate technical prediction more difficult but we notice the fact that the resistance located at 1.3730 is still holding and the day�s main move was bearish. Until a clean break of 1.3700 support or 1.3730 minor resistance occurs, the picture remains uncertain.

Fundamental Outlook

The FOMC will release today at 6:00 pm GMT the Meeting Minutes, containing details about their latest meeting and insights into the reasons which influenced their monetary policy decision. Any hints about future interest rates or monetary easing will trigger sharp movement and hopefully will take the pair out of the state of indecision seen lately.

GBP/USD

Yesterday the Pound was heavily affected by the Consumer Price Index which showed an increase from the previous 1.6% to 1.8%, surpassing the estimated 1.7% and generating a bullish trading session.

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Technical Outlook

Overall the pair had movement which was difficult to trade, mostly because after the first surge generated by the CPI release, price dropped sharply, wiping out some of the Pound�s gains and probably a lot of stop loss orders as well. Nevertheless, price is still trading above 1.6820 and the next target is 1.6880 where a bounce-or-break scenario will unfold. Support sits at 1.6820, followed by 1.6750.

Fundamental Outlook

The main event for the Pound will be the release of United Kingdom�s Retail Sales scheduled at 8:30 am GMT. The estimated value is 0.4% compared with the previous 0.1% and better figures strengthen the Pound as they suggest increased economic activity. At the same time the BoE Meeting Minutes come out, containing a breakdown of the MPC members� votes on the interest rate. Depending on how members voted, traders can assess the Bank�s stance regarding the interest rate and can speculate on future rate values.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: A FULL DAY AHEAD � VOLATILITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN HIGH

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair finally decided to move with some determination and as a result, the level of 1.3700 was broken decisively. Volatility increased and hopefully it will remain this way.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/2014.05.22-A-full-day-ahead-volatility-is-likely-to-remain-high-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

The break of 1.3700 and the fact that price touched 1.3650 make the picture bearish once again, but for the short term downtrend to be renewed, we need to see a clear break of 1.3650 support. If this occurs, the next hurdle is located at 1.3560, followed by 1.3480. Medium term movement seems to favor bears more and more but we expect bullish price action once the Relative Strength Index moves below its 30 level.

Fundamental Outlook

The French and German Manufacturing PMIs are released today at 7:00 am GMT and 7:30 am GMT respectively. Both are surveys which ask purchasing managers to rate the current and future business conditions and are leading indicators or economic health; better than estimated values usually strengthen the Euro. The consensus for the French PMI is 51.1 while the German PMI has an anticipated value of 54.0.

At 2:00 pm GMT the US Existing Home Sales will be released, offering insights into the American house market. Although this is regarded as a high impact indicator, its effect can be mild at times, mostly depending on the difference between the expected value and the actual one. Today an increase is forecast, from the previous 4.59M to 4.71M.

GBP/USD

The Pound strengthened substantially on renewed speculation that a rate increase might occur in the near future and on the back of a much better than expected value of the Retail Sales (forecast 0.4%, actual 1.3%).

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/2014.05.22-A-full-day-ahead-volatility-is-likely-to-remain-high-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

After the initial bullish impulse generated by the things mentioned above, the pair�s momentum started to fade away and price retraced lower. Immediately after the resistance at 1.6920 was touched, price reacted and this increases the importance of this level for short term movement; if 1.6920 resistance is broken, the door for a touch of 1.6996 is open and the uptrend may be renewed. For the time being, the most important support is located at 1.6820.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom�s Gross Domestic Product is announced today at 8:30 am GMT but is expected to remain unchanged from the current 0.8%; if this is the case, the release will have a mild impact but any changes can generate strong moves because the GDP is an economy�s main performance gauge.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: ALL EYES ON THE GERMAN BUSINESS CLIMATE, THE WEEK�S FINAL MARKET MOVER

EUR/USD

Forex News: Both the French and German Manufacturing PMIs showed disappointing values yesterday, lower than forecast and previous figures, generating a bearish day. The US data didn�t surprise in any way and was mostly overlooked by the market.

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Technical Outlook

Although the day was almost entirely controlled by the bears, the support located at 1.3650 was not clearly broken and this means there is still chance of a bullish rally today. A break of the mentioned level would solidify the bears� dominance and would probably take the pair into 1.3560 support but such a move might be too much for a single day. To the north, resistance is located at 1.3700.

Fundamental Outlook


The first event of the day is the release of the German Ifo Business climate, a survey with a large sample (7,000 businesses), focused on expectations for the next six months and also on the current business conditions. The time of the release is 8:00 am GMT and the expected figure is 111.0, a small decrease from the previous 111.2. The impact varies depending on the numbers posted but usually a higher value strengthens the Euro. Later in the day, at 2:00 pm GMT the US New Home Sales numbers are released and expected to increase substantially from last month�s 384K to 426K. More homes sold suggest a thriving economy and thus, can have a positive effect on the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

United Kingdom�s Gross Domestic Product matched analysts� expectations and remained unchanged at 0.8%, a fact which was perceived as bearish for the Pound, taking the pair below 1.6880.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/2014.05.23-All-eyes-on-the-German-Business-Climate-the-weeks-final-market-mover-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

Yesterday price touched for the second time the resistance located at 1.6920 and immediately bounced lower, below 1.6880. This shows that bears have underlying power and that 1.6820 might be the pair�s next target. However, we must keep in mind the fact that form a long term perspective, the pair is in an uptrend, so a touch of the mentioned support will most likely trigger a move higher.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn�t schedule any major news releases today so price action will be mainly affected by the US events and by the technical aspect.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: BANK HOLIDAYS INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SLOW PRICE ACTION

EUR/USD

Forex News: A weaker than forecast value of the German Ifo Business Climate combined with an increased number of New Home Sales in the United States created bearish price action Friday and took the pair below 1.3650 support.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/image0014-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

The European Parliamentary Elections which took place Sunday are likely to influence today�s price behavior but the direction or the extent of their impact is hard to determine. The Relative Strength Index on a Daily chart is showing a mildly oversold condition and this increases the chance of moves north. If this is the case, 1.3650 will most likely act as resistance, followed by 1.3700.

Fundamental Outlook

Today US Banks will be closed due to Memorial Day and no economic data will be released. As for the Euro, the only event that can affect it is the speech of ECB President Mario Draghi. He is scheduled to speak at 8:00 am GMT in Portugal, at the European Central Bank Forum. Strong moves will be generated, especially if the President will speak about ECB�s next step regarding monetary policy.

GBP/USD

Both Thursday and Friday were bearish days and we saw the pair drop all the way from 1.6920 to 1.6820. Price traveled without whipsaws until it finally reached support and volatility subsided due to the end of the trading week.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/image0034-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

Price showed some rejection off 1.6820 support but it looks like the bulls� strength starts to fade away from a medium term perspective (four hour chart). The Relative Strength Index is not indicating an oversold condition so a break of 1.6820 is possible today but on the other hand, we might experience a slow day due to lack of economic releases.

Fundamental Outlook

Banks in the United Kingdom will be closed today, celebrating Spring Bank Holiday; no economic releases are scheduled for the Pound. Volatility might be thin and irregular movement is a distinct possibility.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: FOCUS SHIFTS ON THE UNITED STATES AS EUROPEAN BANKS TAKE A BREAK

EUR/USD

Forex News: German Unemployment rose during the previous month as shown by yesterday�s release, helping the bears to break 1.3615 minor support. Almost the entire day was controlled by sellers and it seems like the bulls� power is waning almost completely.

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Technical Outlook

The Euro is weakened lately by disappointing economic data and by speculation that ECB might cut rates on their next meeting; all this tilts the balance in favor of the bears and we consider that further downside movement is in order. The first support and target for the pair is 1.3560 and we consider it can be touched today but a lot depends on the US data that is due for release.

Fundamental Outlook

German and French banks are closed today due to Ascension Day so European economic releases will lack completely. However, an important US event takes place: the release of the Preliminary Gross Domestic Product which usually has a hefty impact on the US Dollar and can strengthen it if better values are posted. The event is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and the expected figure is -0.6%, a decrease from the previous 0.1%. At 2:00 pm GMT the US Pending Home Sales are announced and expected to decrease from 3.4% to 1.1%; if this decrease comes true, the US Dollar will suffer because the housing market is an important part of the US economy.

GBP/USD

The Pound was affected yesterday by speculation that an interest rate hike is still far away but the technical aspect also played an important role in the sharp drop which broke through support.

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Technical Outlook

The bears dominate medium and short term momentum and extended moves to the downside have a high chance of happening. Nonetheless, we must pay attention to the oversold condition showed by the Relative Strength Index and must be wary of retracements higher which are likely to occur after such a sharp drop as the one experienced yesterday. With that in mind, our bias is negative and we anticipate a touch of 1.6680 support while the previous important support (1.6750) might turn into resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

Today is another day which lacks important economic releases for the Pound so price direction will be influenced by the US events and by the technical aspect.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RETRACEMENTS BUT OVERALL BIAS REMAINS NEGATIVE

EUR/USD

Forex News: The American Gross Domestic Product showed economic slowdown by posting yesterday a value of -1.0%, lower than analysts� forecast and lower than the previous value. This damped the market�s appetite for the US Dollar and bearish movement came to a stop.

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Technical Outlook

Although the Dollar was negatively affected by the GDP release, the bulls didn�t manage to make substantial advances and 1.3615 wasn�t broken to the upside. The pair moved slow yesterday, in a 40 pip range, a fact which doesn�t offer a lot of hints about future direction, but since the bulls couldn�t break 1.3615 even if disappointing data came out for the greenback, the pair will most likely resume downwards movement, making another attempt to touch 1.3560.

Fundamental Outlook

Early at 6:00 am GMT the German Retail Sales come out with an anticipated change of 0.4% compared with last month�s -0.7%. Sales made at a retail level represent the major part of overall German consumer spending and higher values usually strengthen the Euro.

GBP/USD

The bears� momentum was hindered by disappointing US data and as a result, yesterday�s price action was mixed, with some reversals which were difficult to trade, especially on the lower time frames.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/2014.05.30-An-increased-chance-of-retracements-but-overall-bias-remains-negative-pic21-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

The break of 1.6750 that occurred two days ago tipped the balance of power clearly in favor of the bears and today or in the days to come we are likely to see more downside movement. The Relative Strength Index is still in oversold territory and this increases the chances of bullish movement but a touch of 1.6680 is very possible.

Fundamental Outlook

The entire week has been slow in terms of economic releases for the Pound and today is no exception as no indicators are released. Price action will be mainly affected by the technical aspect of the market.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: INFLATION AND MANUFACTURING DATA IN THE SPOTLIGHT

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the bulls made their presence known by taking the pair into 1.3650 resistance. The move was mostly triggered by technical reasons, backed by market indecision due to the approaching of the ECB rate decision.

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Technical Outlook

For the last couple of weeks the pair�s movement has been sluggish and low volatility was present. The move north seen Friday is not considered an attempt of the bulls to take control of the pair, but rather just a normal retracement in a slow downtrend. If the pair travels above 1.3700, it would signify that bulls still have underlying power and would open the door for further upside movement, but until that happens, the medium term downtrend is intact and we are likely to see a touch of 1.3585.

Fundamental Outlook

Germany will announce today at 12:00 pm GMT their Consumer Price Index. The CPI is the prime measurement of inflation and for today�s release a change of 0.1% is anticipated, while the previous value was -0.2%. Higher German inflation is considered beneficial for the entire Euro Zone and hence, for the single currency itself. At 2:00 pm GMT the US Manufacturing PMI is released and the anticipated value is 55.7, compared with the previous 54.9. Better numbers suggest optimism among purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector and usually boost the greenback.

GBP/USD

The pair retraced higher Friday but the move was not generated by surprise announcements or by economic data and instead we attribute it to technical reasons.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/2014.06.02-Inflation-and-Manufacturing-data-in-the-spotlight-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

The oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index signaled in advance a possible bullish move and now price is sitting above the important 1.6750 level. If the bears can manage to take the pair quickly back below this level, the chance of an encounter with 1.6680 support will increase. Otherwise, we are likely to see a touch of 1.6820 in the near future.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom�s Manufacturing PMI is released today at 8:30 am GMT and expected to decrease almost insignificantly from the previous 57.3 to 57.1. A bigger decrease than expected would negatively affect the Pound and would allow the pair to travel south. The US indicator mentioned earlier will have a direct impact on the pair as well.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: INFLATION DATA CLOSELY WATCHED AS THE ECB RATE DECISION APPROACHES

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Euro was affected yesterday by a worse than expected German Consumer Price Index while the US Dollar benefited from a slightly better Manufacturing PMI, facts which triggered a slow but bearish day.

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Technical Outlook

For the time being 1.3650 resistance is holding as seen from yesterday�s bounce lower. The pair continues to have a small range but we are still favoring moves to the downside and a break of 1.3585 en route to 1.3560. It seems like market participants are waiting for the ECB decision regarding the Interest Rate and maybe until it is released, we will not see strong, unidirectional movement.

Fundamental Outlook

Euro Zone�s Consumer Price Index is released today at 09:00 am GMT and it could be the only reason for increased volatility. As mentioned on other occasions, the ECB is closely watching inflation levels as they are highly correlated with the Interest Rate decision. Today�s forecast is 0.7%, no change from the previous value but a higher number will most likely be beneficial for the Euro.

GBP/USD

United Kingdom�s Manufacturing PMI showed a value that came close to analysts� forecast and the impact on the pair was light but price traveled below 1.6750 nonetheless.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/2014.06.03-Inflation-data-closely-watched-as-the-ECB-rate-decision-approaches-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

Yesterday�s price action was sluggish but some bearish pressure can be seen through the fact that 1.6750 was broken again. This shows that bulls cannot sustain higher prices and that bears might continue downwards price action, with the first target being 1.6680. However, today�s direction might be affected more than usual by British economic data.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Construction PMI is announced and it�s expected to increase from 60.8 to 61.2. The indicator is based on the opinion of about 170 purchasing managers from the Construction sector and acts as a leading sign of optimism and economic health so better than expected numbers are beneficial for the Pound.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: PRICE CONFINED IN A TIGHT RANGE. BREAKOUTS ARE EXPECTED

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair bounced between support and resistance yesterday, following a lower than expected Euro Zone Consumer Price Index value. The session was mostly dominated by the bulls but for the time being, speculation about the ECB decision has a high impact on the market.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/2014.06.04-Price-confined-in-a-tight-range.-Breakouts-are-expected-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.3585 is still holding and the same is true for the resistance at 1.3650 as we are experiencing the almost perfect example of a ranging market. Even if support or resistance is broken today, an extended move in the direction of the break has a low probability of occurring as traders seem reticent to commit to either side of the market. The economic data released throughout the day will most likely have a hefty impact.

Fundamental Outlook

Today is the first day of the G7 Meetings which are attended by central bankers and finance ministers from the member states. Depending on the matters discussed (which include the Russian � Ukrainian crisis), increased volatility is likely to be present. At 12:30 pm GMT the ADP Non Farm Employment Change is released, showing changes in employment numbers. The report is released by a privately owned company and tries to mimic the Government issued data which comes out 2 days later. The estimated figure is 217K while the previous number is 220K and usually, higher values are beneficial for the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

United Kingdom�s Construction PMI showed a disappointing value yesterday and reversed an early rally which took price above 1.6750 resistance.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/2014.06.04-Price-confined-in-a-tight-range.-Breakouts-are-expected-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

Price is hugging the level of 1.6750 and movement is slow, especially for a major pair. This price action holds no clues for future direction and the same applies to the Relative Strength Index which is moving sideways. Of immediate interest is the current level of 1.6750 and probably the first strong move away from it will dictate the next short term direction.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the United Kingdom releases the Services PMI which is a leading indicator of economic health focused on the services sector and based on the opinions of purchasing managers. The expected value is 58.3, a decrease from the previous 58.7 and higher values usually strengthen the Pound. As always, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: A CRUCIAL DAY FOR THE SHARED CURRENCY: ECB EXPECTED TO CUT THE INTEREST RATE

EUR/USD

Forex News: The market lacked direction yesterday on the back of mixed economic data released by the United States and as a result neither 1.3650 nor 1.3585 was broken. Trading was difficult on the lower time frames and a lot of direction changes took place.


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Technical Outlook


Indecision still governs the pair�s movement and market participants are holding back, waiting for today�s ECB decision regarding the Interest Rate. The major levels to watch are 1.3650 as resistance and 1.3560 as support, followed by 1.3480. Today�s direction will be highly affected by the event mentioned above and the technical side of the market will be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

Without a doubt the day�s main event is the ECB interest rate decision which is scheduled at 11:45 am GMT and the Press Conference that follows 45 minutes later. The rate is expected to drop from 0.25% to 0.10%, a fact which will most likely be perceived as bearish for the single currency and will generate a huge fall. During the Press Conference, Mario Draghi�s attitude will be closely watched by market participants and his answers to the journalists� questions will most likely trigger additional movement.

GBP/USD

United Kingdom�s Services PMI released yesterday showed a value very close to analysts� forecast but the impact favored the bulls who managed to reverse a previous drop and to take the pair into 1.6750 once more.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/2014.06.05-A-crucial-day-for-the-shared-currency-ECB-expected-to-cut-the-Interest-Rate-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

If the pair is going to continue the ranging movement, we are likely to see another bearish move which will encounter support at 1.6700 and at 1.6680. Yesterday�s break above 1.6750 couldn�t be continued by bulls so neither side of the market is in clear control. Today�s fundamental scene will play a very important role and will overshadow the technical aspect.

Fundamental Outlook

At 11:00 am GMT the Bank of England will announce their Interest Rate but no change is expected from the current 0.50%. A surprise change is not likely and this means that volatility will be increased just briefly. However, whipsaws can occur so we recommend caution if trading at the time.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: ECB CUTS RATES. FOCUS SHIFTS ON THE US NON FARM PAYROLLS

EUR/USD

Forex News: The ECB decided yesterday to cut the interest rate to 0.15% and made a historical move by becoming the first central bank to introduce a negative deposit rate of -0.10%. Following a sharp drop which touched 1.3500 zone, the Euro erased losses and traveled the entire distance back up.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/2014.06.06-ECB-cuts-rates.-Focus-shifts-on-the-US-Non-Farm-Payrolls-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

The pair�s reaction to the ECB decision is surprising and some analysts speculate that Euro dropped too far, too fast and this fact triggered the consequent move up. However, this is just speculation and the fact remains that ECB introduced a negative deposit rate and dropped the interest rate to 0.15%; these factors are likely to weaken the Euro during the next period and the first lower target is 1.3560 followed by the lowest point reached yesterday: 1.3502.

Fundamental Outlook

The day�s main event is the release of the US Non Farm Employment Change which is considered the most important report regarding job creation in the United States. The impact on the market is a huge one almost always, because employment levels are highly correlated with consumer spending which represents a major part of overall economic activity. The release is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and a drop is forecast, from the previous 288K to 212K.

GBP/USD

Bank of England left the Interest Rate unchanged, as expected and overall we experienced a bullish day although price made an attempt to break 1.6750 to the downside but failed.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/2014.06.06-ECB-cuts-rates.-Focus-shifts-on-the-US-Non-Farm-Payrolls-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

The bulls are starting to shift the balance of power in their favor and 1.6820 seems to be the first upside target. On an hourly chart the Relative Strength Index is approaching overbought territory, a thing which increases the chance of bearish moves but does not nullify the possibility of a break of resistance. Support remains strong at 1.6750.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom has a slow day ahead in terms of economic data but the US employment report will have a hefty impact on the pair and we expect strong movement to be generated by its release.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

Forex News: Irregular price action as economic releases lack almost completely

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday was a day characterized by another major whipsaw experienced at the time of the Non Farm Payrolls release. The number of new jobs was close to what analysts had forecast but the market had a mixed reaction.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/image0011-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

The bullish impulse was reversed in close vicinity of the resistance located at 1.3680 and a big four hour pin bar was printed. This type of candle indicates rejection and a potential move lower which will encounter the first support at 1.3585. A move above 1.3680 will nullify the effect of the pin bar and will make 1.3730 the first target. Considering the latest movement, our current bias is neutral until further developments.

Fundamental Outlook

Today French and German Banks are closed in observance of Whit Monday, a fact that will potentially generate irregular volatility and sluggish price action. On top of that, no US economic data is released so the chances of a slow Monday are increased.

GBP/USD

The Non Farm Payrolls release had a similar impact on the Cable and we saw a move up, countered immediately by the bears; at the moment price is sitting below resistance.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/image002-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

For the time being the level of 1.6820 is offering good resistance and rejects all bullish moves. The Relative Strength Index is close to the 70 level and further bullish movement will probably take it into overbought, thus increasing the chances of a move south. If price doesn�t manage to break this level today, we are likely to see a shift of power towards the bears, with 1.6750 support being the next destination.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn�t schedule any major news releases for today so price action will be mostly driven by the technical aspect of the market.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: BEARS ATTEMPTING TO DRAG BOTH PAIRS LOWER

EUR/USD

Forex News: The bears stepped in with conviction yesterday and managed to take the pair into 1.3585 support. Major economic releases lacked but price had unidirectional movement for almost the entire day.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/image0012-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

It looks like the mixed reaction caused by last week�s ECB decision is starting to wear off and the market is finally choosing a direction. Of immediate importance is the support at 1.3585 which is still not broken decisively and until that happens, the probability of upside moves remains high. The support at 1.3560 is still active but its importance is diminished as recent price action has been influenced more by 1.3585 and 1.3500. The latter is also the next target once the current level is broken.

Fundamental Outlook

The French Industrial Production numbers are released today at 6:45 am GMT and expected to increase from the previous -0.7% to 0.3%. The indicator tracks changes in the total value of output produced by the industrial sector during the analyzed month and higher numbers suggest economic expansion, thus strengthening the Euro. However, the impact is mild, especially if the real value is close to analysts� forecast.

GBP/USD

The bulls made another attempt yesterday to break 1.6820 but failed and as a result the rest of the day was controlled by the bears.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/image0031-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

Lately the pair is trading almost sideways, in close vicinity to 1.6820 resistance and the bulls lack the determination needed to break this level. Considering this, our bias is slightly negative, anticipating a move south that will touch 1.6750 but a lot depends on the economic data released today by the United Kingdom.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the UK Manufacturing Production is released and anticipated to decrease slightly from last month�s 0.5% to 0.4%. Since manufacturing is an important part of Great Britain�s economic activity, better numbers can strengthen the Pound and the opposite is true for lower numbers. Later in the day, at 2:00 pm GMT, an estimate of the UK Gross Domestic Product is announced; the last estimate was 1.0% and values that surpass this figure will strengthen the Pound.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: BEARS GAIN CONFIDENCE BUT BULLISH RETRACEMENTS ARE EXPECTED

EUR/USD

Forex News: The bears continued yesterday the momentum which started a day before and successfully broke the support located at 1.3585. The economic data released throughout the day was in line with analysts� expectations but didn�t have a huge impact on price action.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/2014.06.11-Bears-gain-confidence-but-bullish-retracements-are-expected-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

The sellers are in control of the pair at the moment with both 1.3585 and 1.3560 being broken. Now the support at 1.3500 is the next lower target but on a four hour chart the Relative Strength Index is dangerously close to the 30 level which indicates an oversold condition. We expect retracements north which can encounter resistance at the two levels mentioned earlier (broken support may turn into resistance) and once the retracement is complete, bearish price action can resume.

Fundamental Outlook

The day ahead lacks important economic releases for both the Euro and the US Dollar so direction will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect of the market.

GBP/USD

United Kingdom�s Manufacturing output showed a figure which matched the forecast and the impact on the Pound wasn�t tremendous. However, mostly due to technical reasons, our predicted target of 1.6750 was reached yesterday.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/2014.06.11-Bears-gain-confidence-but-bullish-retracements-are-expected-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

The pair paused at 1.6750 support and we are now faced with another bounce-or-break scenario. The Relative Strength Index is not showing an extreme reading so it doesn�t help a lot in predicting if we will see a break or a bounce; the next levels of interest are 1.6700 to the downside and 1.6820 to the upside but the Pound�s direction will depend a lot on the unemployment data released today.

Fundamental Outlook

AT 8:30 am GMT the Claimant Count Change will be announced by the UK Office for National Statistics. The indicator shows the change in the number of unemployed people who asked for social help during the previous month and usually higher numbers indicate that economic activity has decreased. Today�s forecast is -25.0K, almost unchanged from last month�s -25.1K and the Pound will be weakened if numbers above the forecast are shown.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: US RETAIL SALES: THE DAY�S HEADLINE

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair traded without clear direction and the bulls made a timid attempt to take price higher but this didn�t result in a break of resistance. No major economic data was released, contributing to the day�s slow movement.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/2014.06.12-US-Retail-Sales-the-days-headline-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook


The downtrend is intact but the Relative Strength Index is still moving very close to its 30 level, a fact which suggests an almost oversold condition of the market. This increases the chance of bullish moves which should be considered � if they do occur � just pullbacks in a downtrend, not reversals. Resistance still sits at 1.3560 followed by 1.3585, while the first lower target is represented by 1.3500.

Fundamental Outlook

The ECB Monthly Bulletin is released at 8:00 am GMT, revealing the Bank�s outlook concerning future economic conditions as well as information about the statistical data which was analyzed when the interest rate decision was made. The impact of the release varies, depending on the bank�s stance.

Later in the day, at 12:30 pm GMT the US Retail Sales come out, showing the change in the total value of sales made at retail outlets. Consumer spending accounts for about two thirds of all US economic activity and retail sales make up for about one third of this spending so the impact of the release is usually very high. The anticipated change is 0.5%, compared with last month�s 0.1% and under normal circumstances higher figures strengthen the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

United Kingdom�s unemployment numbers came out better than expected, generating Pound strength and driving the pair higher. The entire day was controlled by the bulls and for the time being support is holding.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/2014.06.12-US-Retail-Sales-the-days-headline-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

The bounce-or-break scenario we mentioned before came to a clear conclusion yesterday as we saw a bounce higher off 1.6750 support. This rejection opens the door for a touch of 1.6820 resistance but this level proved very tough to break during last week and this week as well so once price touches it again, we expect a move south. The US Retail Sales data released today will play an important role in this scenario.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn�t schedule any major economic releases for today so price direction will be mainly influenced by technical factors and by the US Retail Sales.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: US DATA IN THE SPOTLIGHT

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday�s trading direction was mostly affected by the disappointing value of the US Retail Sales which weakened the greenback and allowed the pair to climb. The high-to-low range was small however and it seems like the pair cannot regain its normal volatility.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/2014.06.13-US-data-in-the-spotlight-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

The climb seen yesterday took the Relative Strength Index away from oversold, opening the door for a resumption of bearish movement. A good place where price can start to move south is represented by the resistance at 1.3585, assuming the current level of 1.3560 is broken. A move above 1.3585 would tip the scales in favor of the bulls.

Fundamental Outlook

The US Producer Price Index is released today at 12:30 pm GMT, showing the change in prices charged by producers as compared to the previous month. The forecast is for a drop from 0.6% to 0.1%, a fact which would weaken the US Dollar.

The second important indicator of the day comes from the United States as well, in the form of the Consumer Sentiment, scheduled for release at 1:55 pm GMT. This is a survey of about 500 consumers, conducted by the University of Michigan and is often regarded as a leading indicator of consumer spending. The anticipated value is 83.2, an increase from the previous 81.9 and higher numbers are beneficial for the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The effect of the American Retail Sales was seen on this pair as well and for almost the entire trading session the bulls were in control of price action.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/2014.06.13-US-data-in-the-spotlight-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.6820 was broken on the back of US Dollar weakness and it seems like the bulls are making a run for 1.6880 which is the next resistance and immediate upper target. If this level will be reached, the Relative Strength Index will most likely move above its 70 level, signaling an overbought condition and increasing the chance of bearish moves. During the day, 1.6820 may act as support.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom doesn�t release today any major economic indicators and price direction will depend mostly on the US data and on the technical aspect.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: EUROPEAN INFLATION DATA � THE DAY�S ONLY NOTABLE RELEASE

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday bearish movement resumed but price action was not very fast or volatile; however, the pair traveled below 1.3560 and the Euro continued to weaken.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/2014.06.16-European-inflation-data-the-days-only-notable-release-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

Recent price action created minor support at 1.3520 and this will be the first barrier in front of further downside movement but the bearish momentum seems to slow down lately, a fact which signifies that the pair might re-visit 1.3560 resistance. The Relative Strength Index doesn�t show an extreme reading and it�s rather neutral but Eurozone�s CPI is release today and this can be a deciding factor for the day�s direction.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:00 am GMT the European Consumer Price Index is announced and anticipated to remain unchanged at 0.5%. Inflation is still a concerning matter and lower values will most likely weaken the Euro, considering the fact that ECB�s inflation target is just below 2.0% and the current CPI is far from this target.

GBP/USD

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney commented that a rate hike may be discussed sooner than anticipated, a fact which triggered enormous Pound strength and took the pair into the year�s high.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/2014.06.16-European-inflation-data-the-days-only-notable-release-pic2-1024x477.png]

Technical Outlook

Price came within a few pips of a multi-year�s high located at 1.6996, putting the bulls in clear control of the pair. However, this control could be lost if 1.6996 (1.7000) is not broken during the next days and we must note the severe overbought condition signaled by the Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart. This increases the chance of a retracement lower which may find support at 1.6920.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn�t schedule major news releases for today and price action will be mainly affected by technical factors.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: EURO IN CONSOLIDATION PATTERN, POUND REACHES NEW HIGHS. ECONOMIC DATA DECIDES DIRECTION

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair didn�t travel a substantial distance during yesterday�s trading session and 1.3560 resistance was re-visited. Euro Zone�s CPI came out with the anticipated value and the release didn�t create a lot of volatility.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/2014.06.17-Euro-in-consolidation-pattern-Pound-reaches-new-highs.-Economic-data-decides-direction-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

The pair is in a consolidation zone between1.3585 and 1.3520 and a breakout is imminent. The medium term trend is bearish so there�s a higher probability of a break of support than of resistance. If 1.3520 is broken, the next important level is located at 1.3500 followed by 1.3480 while to the upside price will encounter resistance at 1.3650 if 1.3585 will be broken.

Fundamental Outlook

An important German survey is released today at 9:00 am GMT: the ZEW Economic Sentiment. This indicator is based on the opinions of about 275 German professional investors and analysts who are asked to rate the current and future economic conditions. The forecast is an increase from 33.1 to 35.2, a fact which would strengthen the Euro and drive the pair higher.

At 12:30 pm GMT the American Consumer Price Index is announced and expected to decrease from 0.3% to 0.2%, a fact which would be detrimental for the US Dollar since the CPI acts as the main gauge of inflation.

GBP/USD

The Pound continued to climb, fueled by speculation about a potential rate hike performed by the BoE and 1.7000 was breached as a result.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/2014.06.17-Euro-in-consolidation-pattern-Pound-reaches-new-highs.-Economic-data-decides-direction-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

Immediately after piercing the multi-year top created at 1.6996, the pair returned below it, a fact which shows that resistance is still holding and it will take more than one attempt to break it. Also, the Relative Strength Index is starting to descend towards the 70 level, coming from overbought territory, a fact which favors the bears and increases the chance of a touch of 1.6920.

Fundamental Outlook

Price direction will be influenced today by the release of United Kingdom�s CPI which is scheduled at 8:30 am GMT. Inflation is anticipated to drop from the previous 1.8% to 1.7% and if analysts� expectations come true or even lower numbers are posted, the Pound is likely to lose some steam. As always, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair�s direction.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: FOMC RELEASES A CLUSTER OF MARKET-MOVING DATA

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair failed to break free of the current consolidation pattern which governs price action despite the fact that German ZEW posted worse than expected values and the American CPI showed an increase.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/2014.06.18-FOMC-releases-a-cluster-of-market-moving-data-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

Some US Dollar strength was seen yesterday at the time of the CPI release, making the pair bounce lower off the resistance located at 1.3585. The downtrend line seen in the picture above created a confluence zone but although all the ingredients for a break of support were present, the pair had a rather slow day. We expect the latest momentum to be continued today and the pair to break 1.3520 support, but a lot depends on the US events released in the second part of the day.

Fundamental Outlook

At 6:00 pm GMT the Federal Funds Rate (not expected to change from the current <0.25%) is announced within the FOMC Statement and will be followed half an hour by a Press Conference which will contain commentary regarding the monetary policy and possibly future rate direction. The FOMC will also release at 6:00 pm GMT their Economic Projections regarding inflation and economic conditions for the next two years. This cluster of events is likely to generate a lot of strong movement and we recommend caution if trading at the time.

GBP/USD

United Kingdom�s Consumer Price Index showed yesterday that inflation dropped more than analysts had forecast and this weakened the Pound. However, the losses incurred were almost immediately recovered, creating a major whipsaw on the lower time frames.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/2014.06.18-FOMC-releases-a-cluster-of-market-moving-data-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

Although we saw yesterday some choppy price action, the resistance at 1.6996 is still holding and the Relative Strength Index is moving down, coming from overbought territory. These factors favor a move south, towards the potential support area located at 1.6920. A move above 1.7000 would invalidate the Double Top formation and would resume the uptrend, making 1.7040 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

The Bank of England will announce today at 8:30 am GMT the breakdown of the MPC members� votes regarding the latest interest rate decision. This is a good opportunity for traders to assess the stance of the BoE on the interest rate and to see if the MPC members have a difference of opinion. Later in the day, the pair will be directly affected by the US events mentioned above.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: THE CALM AFTER THE STORM?

EUR/USD

Forex News: The FOMC cluster of events generated huge volatility yesterday but unfortunately the price movement was almost untradeable at the time because of huge whipsaws and choppy up and down movement.

http://master.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/2014.06.19-The-calm-after-the-storm-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

Yesterday�s price action holds absolutely no technical clues about future movement but the fact still remains that 1.3585 resistance couldn�t be broken decisively. This increases the chance of a bearish trend resumption but moves above the mentioned level will make 1.3680 the next potential target.

Fundamental Outlook


The Eurogroup Meetings start today and are attended by finance ministers of countries where Euro is the main currency; the President of the ECB will also participate and the discussions which will take place will have an impact on the Euro�s future direction. Later in the day, at 2:00 am GMT the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is released, showing the opinions of about 250 manufacturers from the Philadelphia district regarding the current level of business conditions. The expected figure is 14.3, a decrease from the previous 15.4 and usually lower numbers are detrimental for the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The pair was also highly affected by the US events but price action was slightly more docile than EUR/USD. We had another encounter with 1.6996 and a bounce off 1.6920 in what was a hectic trading session.

http://master.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/2014.06.19-The-calm-after-the-storm-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

We saw yesterday a clear rejection at 1.6920 which has now turned into support, a fact which makes 1.6996 the next destination for the pair. At the moment the bullish momentum is renewed by the immediate bounce at support and it seems like the Pound is headed for new highs. A break of support would invalidate this scenario.

Fundamental Outlook

At 10:00 am GMT the CBI Industrial Order Expectations are announced and anticipated to rise from 0 to 3. The indicator is a survey that asks British manufacturers to rate the expected volume of orders during the next three months and usually expectations above 0 indicate optimism and strengthen the Pound.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: HIGH PRICES CALL FOR A BEARISH RETRACEMENT

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair broke resistance yesterday and almost the entire day was controlled by the bulls. The US Dollar weakened on Fed comments that interest rates will be kept at low levels for �considerable time�.

http://master.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/2014.06.20-High-prices-call-for-a-bearish-retracement-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

Despite the ECB�s decision to lower rates, the Euro is not weakening against the US Dollar and we are likely to see a touch of 1.3680 resistance now that 1.3585 is decisively broken. However, today we anticipate a move lower which will clear the overbought condition indicated by the Relative Strength Index. If this move occurs, 1.3585 will most likely turn into support.

Fundamental Outlook

The day lacks major economic events for both the Euro and the US Dollar but the ECOFIN Meetings take place and can generate strong moves, depending on the matters discussed.

GBP/USD

The CBI Industrial Order Expectations announced yesterday posted a much better than anticipated value and the Pound continued its climb, breaching 1.7040 resistance.

http://master.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/2014.06.20-High-prices-call-for-a-bearish-retracement-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

If the bulls can sustain such a high price, the only level of interest to the upside is yesterday�s high and other than that we are in �uncharted� territory as far as resistance is concerned because the pair didn�t surpass 1.7040 since 2009. The Pound shows tremendous strength but retracements are to be expected considering the extended bull-run and the overbought condition signaled by the Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn�t schedule major news releases but a noteworthy indicator is the Public Sector Net Borrowing announced at 8:30 am GMT and expected to increase from 9.6 billion to 11.8 billion. The indicator measures the level of debt held by the government and a negative number indicates a surplus, while a positive number suggests deficit; however, lower than anticipated values will be beneficial for the Pound.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: EUROPEAN MANUFACTURING AND US HOUSE-MARKET DATA AHEAD

EUR/USD

Forex News: The main trend Friday was bearish, partially generated by a light overbought state of the market. There were no important economic releases and price action was relatively smooth.

http://master.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/image0014-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

Price failed to finish the trading day below 1.3585 and the bulls have been showing some pressure lately, stopping the bearish momentum at 1.3520. However, neither bulls nor bears are in clear control and today�s direction will be determined by price behavior around the current level of interest (1.3585). A bearish break will make 1.3520 the next target while a bounce higher will most likely take the pair back into 1.3640 resistance zone.

Fundamental Outlook

At 7:00 am GMT the French Manufacturing PMI is announced but no change is expected from the previous value of 49.6; half an hour later the German Manufacturing PMI is released and expected to change from 52.3 to 52.7. Both are leading indicators of economic health based on the opinions of purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector and higher numbers are usually beneficial for the Euro.

The United States will release at 2:00 pm GMT the Existing Home Sales numbers which are expected to increase from 4.65M to 4.74M. The indicator has a slightly greater importance than the New Home Sales (will be released a day after) because existing homes represent the majority of total sales. Higher numbers usually strengthen the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

Friday the pair retraced lower, a normal behavior, considering the extended move upwards and the overbought condition signaled by the Relative Strength Index; however, the bears didn�t manage to break important levels.

http://master.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/image0033-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

The move south seen Friday is considered just a retracement, not a reversal; a good place for price to start moving upwards again is 1.6996 which was previous resistance and now may become support. A bearish break of the mentioned level would indicate that high prices become harder and harder for bulls to sustain and would weaken the current uptrend, making 1.6920 the next medium-term destination. Resistance now sits at 1.7063.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom doesn�t release any major economic indicators today and price action will be mostly influenced by the technical aspect and by the US data mentioned above.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: SIGNIFICANT FUNDAMENTAL DATA SETS THE STAGE FOR A VOLATILE DAY

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair continued its slow and ranging movement, trading slightly lower on the back of disappointing European Manufacturing data and a slightly better value of the US Existing Home Sales.

http://master.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/image0015-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

Support and resistance levels are still holding and the pair becomes less volatile as days go by; the first event that may generate strong movement is the break of the triangle pattern seen on the chart above. If the support located at 1.3585 is holding and rejects price higher, we are likely to also see a bullish break of the triangle but for the time being, the lower part of the triangle creates a confluence zone with 1.3585 horizontal support so the bears will have a tough time breaking it.

Fundamental Outlook

An important German survey is released today at 8:00 am GMT: the IFO Business Climate. The importance of the survey comes from its large sample of about 7,000 businesses that are asked to rate the current level of economic conditions and to give a 6-month outlook. The expected figure is 110.3, an almost insignificant change from last month�s 110.4 and higher numbers usually strengthen the Euro.

At 2:00 pm GMT the US Consumer Confidence survey is released; this survey acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending and economic health at the same time, hence higher numbers are beneficial for the US Dollar. The forecast is an increase to 83.6 from 83.0.

GBP/USD

The US Dollar strengthened once positive economic data was released and as a result, the bears managed to nullify the gains obtained by the Pound previously during the day. Neither support nor resistance was broken and overall we had an uneventful day.

http://master.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/image0034-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The pair is confined between 1.7063 resistance and 1.6996 support and until either one is broken, our bias is neutral. The Pound is on a clear uptrend but perhaps a stronger retracement lower is needed before we can see a break of 1.7063. Mark Carney�s public speech will most likely have a high impact on price direction and will possibly determine a break of support or resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the Inflation Report Hearings take place in London. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and other members of the Monetary Policy Committee will testify on inflation and economic outlook. Their comments will most likely have a great impact on the Pound and caution is recommended if trading at the time. As always, the US events will directly affect the pair�s movement.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: EURO CONFINED IN A RANGE, POUND WEAKENED BY DOVISH COMMENTS

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair had another difficult to trade day as price first climbed and then dropped below the opening price on the back of better than expected US economic data. Currently the support at 1.3585 is being re-tested from above but the pair is in a ranging state.

http://master.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/2014.06.25-Euro-confined-in-a-range-Pound-weakened-by-dovish-comments-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

Price action continues to trade sideways and all moves in one direction are quickly reversed. The current level of 1.3585 is important for short term movement and a break would open the door for additional sellers to enter the market and to take the pair into the more important support located at 1.3520. Minor resistance sits at 1.3640 � 1.3645 but the market is ranging and we are neutral until an important level is breached.

Fundamental Outlook

Two important US events represent today�s headlines: at 12:30 pm GMT the Durable Goods Orders are announced with a negative change anticipated, from the previous 0.6% to -0.1%. At the same time the Final version of the Gross Domestic is released and although its impact is lower than the Advance GDP, volatility can still be generated as the GDP is an economy�s main performance gauge. The expected change is -1.7%while the previous was -1.0%. Lower numbers for either indicator can determine a weakening of the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The Pound weakened throughout the day against the US Dollar as Mark Carney showed a dovish attitude towards a potential rate hike and dampened any speculation that BOE will raise rates sooner than anticipated.

http://master.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/2014.06.25-Euro-confined-in-a-range-Pound-weakened-by-dovish-comments-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The potential support level at 1.6996 was easily broken yesterday on the back of Pound weakness generated by Carney�s comments and now it seems like the pair is headed for 1.6920 support. Before that happens, a re-test of 1.6996 is very probable. If this re-test is successful and price bounces lower, the chances of a reversal will increase and resistance will be located at 1.6996 once again. Throughout the day keep an eye for an oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index on the four-hour chart.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the United Kingdom doesn�t release any major economic data so price action will be mainly influenced by the technical side and by the US events mentioned above.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: CARNEY�S SPEECH � DOVISH OR HAWKISH?

EUR/USD

Forex News: The American currency weakened yesterday against its counterparts as disappointing values were posted for both the Durable Goods Orders and the Gross Domestic Product. As a result the pair touched resistance at 1.3640 and the day was controlled by the bulls.

http://master.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/2014.06.26-Carneys-speech-Dovish-or-Hawkish-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The pair continues to move extremely slowly compared to its normal behavior and although yesterday the bulls showed clear signs of dominance, future direction is uncertain. The current level of resistance may push price lower or it may bring in more buyers if a break is recorded, so today�s price action revolves around a �bounce or break� scenario. Next resistance is located at 1.3680 while support sits at the uptrend line, followed by 1.3585.

Fundamental Outlook

Today lacks major announcements for both the Euro and the US Dollar and the pair�s direction will be mostly affected by technical factors.

GBP/USD

US Dollar weakness was seen against the Pound as well and the pair made a push for 1.6996. However, the bulls lacked the necessary strength to break resistance and price remained below it.

http://master.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/2014.06.26-Carneys-speech-Dovish-or-Hawkish-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

At the moment we are seeing rejection at 1.6996 (1.7000) resistance and it seems like the bulls failed to renew the uptrend. This suggests that moves lower may follow and that 1.6920 support might be the next destination. A climb above 1.7000 will invalidate this scenario but Mark Carney�s speech will be the day�s headline and will probably have a strong impact on price action.

Fundamental Outlook

AT 9:30 am GMT the Bank of England will release the Financial Stability Report which contains an assessment of potential risks to the current financial system and an in-depth analysis regarding financial stability in the UK. At the same time, BOE Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference and will deliver a speech focused on the mentioned Report. His attitude will most likely have a great impact on the Pound and will be the day�s main market mover.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: GERMAN INFLATION NUMBERS MAY PUT AN END TO RANGING MOVEMENT

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar continued to weaken yesterday against its major counterparts and the Euro was no exception; after an unsuccessful attempt to break resistance, price moved south to touch 1.3585 support but finished the day above it.

http://master.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/2014.06.27-German-inflation-numbers-may-put-an-end-to-ranging-movement-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The pair is still ranging, without choosing a direction and this gives greater importance to the oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index and to the support located at 1.3585. We anticipate a bounce higher and a move back above the uptrend line but today�s important financial data will be the determining factor.

Fundamental Outlook

The main event of the day is the German Consumer Price Index which is released at 12:00 pm GMT and anticipated to change from the previous -0.1% to 0.2%, a fact which would be beneficial for the Euro as German inflation accounts for a big part of European inflation.

GBP/USD

Mark Carney�s speech regarding the Financial Stability Report was perceived as hawkish by market participants and the pair climbed yesterday above 1.7000.

http://master.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/2014.06.27-German-inflation-numbers-may-put-an-end-to-ranging-movement-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

At the moment the pair looks like it�s making an attempt to touch 1.7063 once again. The Pound was strengthened by more speculation about a rate hike which may come before the end of the year and the greenback is weakened by a worse than expected GDP so things look bullish and we anticipate a touch of the mentioned level. First support is located at 1.6996 (1.7000), followed by 1.6920.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom�s Final version of the Gross Domestic Product will be announced today at 8:30 am GMT. Although the Final version is the last and tends to have a milder impact on price action compared to the Advance version, we can still expect sharp moves at the time of the release, especially if the actual figure will differ from analysts� prediction of 0.8%. Since this is the main gauge of an economy�s performance, higher values usually strengthen the Pound and the opposite is true for lower numbers.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: EURO ZONE INFLATION IN THE SPOTLIGHT ONCE AGAIN

EUR/USD

Forex News: The bulls controlled most of Friday�s trading session on the back of a slightly better than anticipated value of the German Consumer Price Index. However, the pair is still trading in a range and resistance is not clearly broken.

http://master.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/2014.06.30-Euro-Zone-inflation-in-the-spotlight-once-again-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

Last week�s price action increases dramatically the chances of a breakout which will most likely occur this week, but the direction is hard to predict. Price just bounced between 1.3585 support and 1.3640 resistance and neither bulls nor bears made clear attempts to take control of direction. The encounter with resistance seen Friday may generate a bounce lower and a potential break of the uptrend line but if the pair continues upwards, it will encounter strong resistance at 1.3675.

Fundamental Outlook


At 9:00 am GMT the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index is released and anticipated to increase from 0.5% to 0.6%. If this comes true (or if higher numbers are posted), the Euro will most likely strengthen against the US Dollar and we will have a bullish day.

At 2:00 pm GMT the US Pending Home Sales are announced, showing the change in the number of houses which still await the closing transaction. The forecast is for an increase from 0.4% to 1.4%, a fact which would be considered beneficial for the greenback.

GBP/USD

United Kingdom�s Final version of the Gross Domestic Product came out Friday with the anticipated value of 0.8%, a fact which generated mixed price action and overall a ranging day.

http://master.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/2014.06.30-Euro-Zone-inflation-in-the-spotlight-once-again-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

Resistance sits at 1.7063 but the bulls seem to lack the needed power to break it and to renew the uptrend. For today�s price action we expect more ranging movement, with price confined between the support at 1.6996 (1.7000) and the resistance just mentioned.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn�t schedule any major indicator releases today and the pair�s direction will be mainly affected by American data and by the technical aspect.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: HIGH PRICES CALL FOR BEARISH RETRACEMENTS

EUR/USD

Forex News: Despite the fact that Euro Zone inflation remained unchanged at 0.5%, the pair had a bullish day on the back of US Dollar weakness. Strong resistance was broken and buyers made a decisive step for future price action.

http://master.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/2014.07.01-High-prices-call-for-bearish-retracements-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

Now that 1.3675 is broken, we expect it to turn into support and price to pull back slightly for a touch which may generate a bounce higher. Currently the Relative Strength Index is touching the 70 level which shows a slightly overbought market and indicates that a retracement lower might be in order, somewhat confirming our view. Next resistance is located at 1.3730 and will become the pair�s first target if 1.3675 turns into support.

Fundamental Outlook

The United States will release the manufacturing PMI today at 2:00 pm GMT. This survey is based on the opinions of about 400 purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector and it�s a measure of economic health and optimism; values above the expected 55.6 are considered beneficial for the US economy and hence for the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The US Dollar weakness seen versus the Euro made its presence known against the Pound as well and the pair climbed to a new multi-year high, reaching 1.7114.

http://master.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/2014.07.01-High-prices-call-for-bearish-retracements-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

Yesterday�s strong bullish momentum is likely to continue throughout today but for the time being, the top at 1.7114 will act as resistance and we anticipate a bearish pullback which will also clear the overbought condition shown by the Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart. First potential support is located at 1.7063.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the United States, the United Kingdom will release today the Manufacturing PMI. The time of the release is 8:30 am GMT and the expected value is 56.7, a small decrease from 57.0. Lower than anticipated values usually weaken the Pound, driving the pair lower.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR AFFECTED BY EMPLOYMENT DATA AND YELLEN�S SPEECH

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair resumed its sideways movement and volatility lacked almost completely; the US Manufacturing PMI posted a value close to forecast and this added to the lack of direction.

http://master.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/2014.07.02-US-Dollar-affected-by-employment-data-and-Yellens-speech-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

Price came close to the recently broken level of 1.3675 but couldn�t break it or bounce off of it and instead the pair just stalled there. For today we still anticipate a continuation of the recent bullish move which may generate a touch of 1.3730, but the Relative Strength Index is still close to the 70 level which indicates an overbought condition and might hinder further advances. Support sits at 1.3675 followed by 1.3640.

Fundamental Outlook

Two important US events will shape today�s direction: at 12:15 pm GMT, Automatic Data Processing, a privately owned US company will release the Non Farm Employment Change. This report must not be mistaken for the Government-issued indicator which will be released tomorrow but its importance is still high because it offers an early look into the US employment situation. Better numbers than the anticipated 206K will most likely strengthen the US Dollar, taking the pair lower.

At 3:00 pm GMT, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak in Washington, DC at the International Monetary Fund. As always, her speeches can be a reason for increased volatility and sharp moves so we recommend caution if trading at the time.

GBP/USD

Yesterday�s main market mover was the British Manufacturing PMI which showed an unexpected increase and boosted demand for the Pound as investors perceived it as a sign that interest rates might rise sooner than expected.

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Technical Outlook

The Pound is constantly breaking multi-year highs and the bulls are in total control of the pair. However, this doesn�t nullify the possibility of bearish retracements, especially considering the overbought condition indicated by the Relative Strength Index on a four-hour and on a Daily chart. If retracements occur, a good level where bullish movement may resume is 1.7095.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom�s Construction PMI is released today at 8:30 am GMT and expected to decrease from last month�s 60.0 to 59.7. Construction is an important part of the United Kingdom�s economy and better than anticipated numbers can strengthen the currency but the impact is usually lower than the one of the Manufacturing PMI.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: A HIGHLY VOLATILE DOUBLE-FEATURE: ECB PRESS CONFERENCE AND AMERICAN NFP

EUR/USD

Forex News: US Employment data released yesterday showed that job creation increased more than expected according to the privately owned company that put together the report. The US Dollar benefited and managed to gain against the Euro.

http://master.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/2014.07.03-A-highly-volatile-double-feature-ECB-Press-Conference-and-American-NFP-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook


Currently the pair is testing the confluence zone created by the uptrend line and the support level at 1.3640 and the last push above 1.3675 wasn�t enough to bring in more buyers and to generate a continued bullish move. The main levels to watch remain 1.3730 as resistance and 1.3520 as support but today�s technical aspect will be overshadowed by the fundamentals.

Fundamental Outlook

The ECB Interest Rate will be announced at 11:45 am GMT but no change is expected and the main event of the day will be a double feature: the ECB Press Conference and the US Non Farm Employment Change. Both events take place at the same time, 12:30 pm GMT. Mario Draghi is likely to give traders more hints about future monetary policy during his speech at the Press Conference; as always, his attitude and answers to journalists� questions will be closely watched by market participants and the Euro will be highly affected.

The US Non Farm Payrolls are usually released Friday but this time they are released a day earlier due to Independence Day which is celebrated tomorrow. The market is likely to move very strongly at the time so we recommend caution.

GBP/USD

The United Kingdom continues to post positive economic data and this was confirmed once more yesterday when the Construction PMI showed a better than expected value. As a result the Pound strengthened and posted a new high at 1.7176.

http://master.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/2014.07.03-A-highly-volatile-double-feature-ECB-Press-Conference-and-American-NFP-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

Although we had another bullish day, the momentum seems to fade away slowly and the Relative Strength Index starts to descend. Retracements are still anticipated but the fundamental scene is filled with important events which will highly influence price action. First potential support is located at 1.7140 while yesterday�s high is considered resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the Services PMI is released but its impact is usually lower than the one of the other two indexes released Tuesday and Wednesday. However, higher values than the anticipated 58.1 can strengthen the Pound and take the pair higher. An extra importance will have the US employment numbers released later in the day.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: INDEPENDENCE DAY AFFECTS THE US DOLLAR. IRREGULAR TRADING EXPECTED

EUR/USD

Forex News: ECB President Mario Draghi indicated during yesterday’s Press Conference that interest rates will remain low, a fact which weakened the Euro. On the other hand, the US Dollar strengthened once the Non Farm Payrolls showed much better numbers than analysts’ forecast and these two factors generated a bear-controlled day.

http://master.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/2014.07.04-Independence-Day-affects-the-US-Dollar.-Irregular-trading-expected-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

The confluence zone created by the bullish trend line and the level of 1.3640 was broken decisively yesterday, a fact which would normally generate an extended move down. However, lately the pair is moving in a very difficult to predict fashion and lacks volatility, except for some isolated bursts. If the support at 1.3585 will be broken, the next logical target is 1.3520 but if this support is not broken today, we might see another move up which will encounter resistance at the recently broken trend line.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s only noteworthy release is the German Factory Orders, scheduled at 6:00 am GMT and expected to drop significantly from 3.1% to -0.8%, a fact which would further weaken the Euro. The United States celebrate Independence Day and no economic indicators will be released. Also, American banks are closed and this might translate into irregular volatility.

GBP/USD

The Pound suffered from a lower than anticipated value of the Services PMI and the greenback strengthened on the back of positive employment data; as a result, the anticipated bearish retracement occurred and the pair touched support.

http://master.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/2014.07.04-Independence-Day-affects-the-US-Dollar.-Irregular-trading-expected-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s touch of 1.7095 support resulted in a bounce higher so we expect to see a move that will test the recent high formed at 1.7176. The last bearish move cleared the overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index, a fact which sets the stage for further bullish moves; however, we must wait and see if the Dollar strength generated by the NFP will continue throughout today and if this is the case, price will most likely touch 1.7095 once again.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom doesn’t release any major economic data today and we expect a slow trading session, considering also the fact that US banks are closed.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: OPENING THE WEEK WITH RANGING PRICE ACTION

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the bears continued to take price lower and touched support at 1.3585 but the day lacked volatility, mostly due to the fact that the United States celebrated Independence Day and US banks were closed.

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Technical Outlook

Today we are faced with a bounce-or-break scenario and the support at 1.3585 plays the main role. A bearish break would set the stage for a touch of the more important support located at 1.3520 but if sellers cannot maintain the momentum seen last week, we are likely to see a move back up into the zone around 1.3640. The Relative Strength Index is moving close to the 30 level which indicates an oversold market and slightly increases the chances of a bounce higher.

Fundamental Outlook

The day lacks major economic releases and the only notable indicator is the German Industrial Production scheduled at 6:00 am GMT. The indicator shows changes in industrial output but it is considered to have low impact on the Euro; however, higher numbers than the anticipated 0.3% usually strengthen the single currency.

GBP/USD

The Pair had a ranging day Friday but the bulls managed to surpass the previous high by a few pips before price started to move south. No major developments took place and Independence Day generated low trading volume.

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Technical Outlook

We consider there�s a high chance of another encounter today with the high located at 1.7180 but a real break is less likely to occur. To the down side, the first major support is located at 1.7095 but such a distance is too much to travel on a Monday that lacks major fundamental announcements. We anticipate a ranging day, with slow price action.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn�t schedule any major economic releases for today so price direction will be mostly influenced by the technical aspect.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: ALL EYES ON GERMAN TRADE BALANCE AND UK�S MANUFACTURING NUMBERS

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair traded in a 30 pip range yesterday as no major economic releases affected price movement and we saw a small bounce off support. Germany�s Industrial Production came out worse than anticipated but the event didn�t have a strong impact.

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Technical Outlook

According to the ranging behavior exhibited lately by the pair, the next possible move is a bounce higher off 1.3585 support, considering also the fact that the Relative Strength Index is moving upwards after a brief encounter with its 30 level; if this bounce occurs, the resistance at 1.3640 will be the next target but a break of support will make 1.3520 the immediate bearish destination.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Trade Balance comes out today at 6:00 am GMT with an anticipated decrease from the previous 17.7B to 15.7B. The indicator shows the difference between imported and exported goods and a positive numbers means that more goods were exported than imported, a fact which usually strengthens the Euro.

GBP/USD

Overall the Pound had a bearish day but support wasn�t touched and price didn�t make any spectacular moves. Trading lacked major reversals or whipsaws.

http://master.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/2014.07.08-All-eyes-on-German-Trade-Balance-and-UKs-manufacturing-numbers-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

We consider that the pair�s first target is the support located at 1.7095 and once this retracement lower is completed, we expect the bullish trend to resume for another attempt to break 1.7180 resistance. A break of 1.7095 would encounter potential support at 1.7063 but today�s price action will most likely be decided by economic factors.

Fundamental Outlook

AT 8:30 am GMT the UK Manufacturing Production is released. This indicator shows the change in the total value of output produced by manufacturers and represents about 80% of the entire UK Industrial Production; higher numbers suggest increased economic activity and thus, a stronger Pound. The anticipated change is 0.5%, compared with last month�s 0.4%.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR STILL WEAK AGAINST ITS COUNTERPARTS. FOMC MINUTES IN THE SPOTLIGHT

EUR/USD

Forex News: Price moved north yesterday after bouncing for a second time off of 1.3585 support and the Euro bulls proved they are not yet ready to admit defeat. The rise was partly generated by a surprisingly better value of the German Trade Balance.

http://master.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/2014.07.09-US-Dollar-still-weak-against-its-counterparts.-FOMC-Minutes-in-the-spotlight-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

Latest price action indicates that the next destination of the pair is the resistance located at 1.3640 as price tried on two separate occasions to break 1.3585 but failed. However, if the bears manage to tip the scales in their favor by breaking 1.3585, the pair�s next target will become 1.3520 support. Our bias is mainly neutral on the pair as the daily range is about 30 pips and price movement is extremely slow.

Fundamental Outlook

The main event of the day is the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes scheduled at 6:00 pm GMT. The document will offer insights into the reasons that stood behind the FOMC members� vote regarding the US interest rate and will probably give some hints about future monetary direction. Usually this event creates strong movement so we recommend caution if trading at the time.

At 7:30 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver a speech in London at the Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa Memorial Lecture. Although the speech is not directly related to ECB� monetary policy, Draghi�s public appearances can always influence the Euro strongly and caution is recommended as well.

GBP/USD

The Pound lost ground against the US Dollar during the first part of yesterday�s trading session as the UK Manufacturing Production showed a totally disappointing decrease of -1.3%. Later in the day however, the bulls erased most of the losses.

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Technical Outlook

Yesterday we saw an immediate rejection when price touched the support zone created at 1.7095, a fact that shows that bulls still have a lot of underlying strength and could very well take the pair into 1.7180 area. Despite bad UK economic data, the US Dollar cannot take the Pound lower and for the time being, support is holding so the chances of a new high have increased.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the United Kingdom didn�t schedule any market moving economic indicators so price direction will be influenced by the FOMC Meeting Minutes and by technical factors.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: THE GREENBACK CONTINUES TO LOSE GROUND. RESISTANCE LEVELS THREATENED

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday, before the FOMC Meeting Minutes, the pair rose to touch resistance as the US Dollar continued to lose ground against the Euro. The Minutes had a mixed impact and took the pair higher after an initial drop.

http://master.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/2014.07.10-The-greenback-continues-to-lose-ground.-Resistance-levels-threatened-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The bulls have the opportunity to break 1.3640 resistance and to take the pair into 1.3675. Since we are trading in a range-bound market, support and resistance levels tend to have a greater importance than in a trending market so if price stalls at 1.3675 and the Relative Strength Index becomes overbought, we anticipate a bearish pullback.


Fundamental Outlook

The ECB will release their Monthly Bulletin today at 8:00 am GMT; the document will contain an economic outlook and economic expectations from the Bank�s perspective and also reveals the data which was analyzed when the ECB made the Interest Rate decision. The event is considered to have a medium impact on the Euro unless surprising data is revealed.

GBP/USD

The pair touched support once again but the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes generated a push north and currently the pair is headed towards 1.7180 top.

http://master.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/2014.07.10-The-greenback-continues-to-lose-ground.-Resistance-levels-threatened-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The US Dollar doesn�t seem to have an answer for Pound�s strength and the bears cannot break a single support level. Every time the pair touches the support at 1.7095, it bounces upwards but on the higher time frames, price is overbought and retracements lower are a distinct possibility. Until 1.7180 or 1.7095 is broken, out bias is neutral on the pair.

Fundamental Outlook

The Bank of England announces today the Interest Rate but no change is anticipated from the current 0.50% and probably the event will just create irregular volatility at the time of the release. If any hints are offered about future rate increases or if speculation takes over the market, we will probably see strong movement for the Pound. The scheduled time is 11:00 am GMT and we recommend caution if trading.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: THE LACK OF IMPORTANT ECONOMIC RELEASES SETS THE STAGE FOR SLOW PRICE ACTION

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Euro lost its appeal for investors as a Portuguese bank missed debt payments and generated concerns for the region�s economic recovery. As a result, the pair bounced lower at resistance and support is threatened again.

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Technical Outlook

The resistance zone located at 1.3640 � 1.3650 held perfectly yesterday and stopped the previous rally, generating a swift move into the support located at 1.3585. The same bounce-or-break scenario will be played out today: a bearish break will open the door for a touch of 1.3520 while a bounce higher will make 1.3640 the first upper target once more. A breakout is anticipated, considering that for the entire week the pair traded in this narrow range, but the direction is unclear.

Fundamental Outlook

We have a slow day ahead, with no major economic news scheduled for release by either Europe or the United States. Price action is expected to be ranging unless unscheduled events occur.

GBP/USD

Bank of England decided to keep the interest rate at a record low of 0.50%, a fact that was anticipated by market participants and as a result, it didn�t create any market volatility.


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Technical Outlook

The bulls didn�t manage to take price as high as 1.7180 and yesterday the pair�s direction was bearish; however, 1.7095 wasn�t threatened and price remained inside the channel created by the two mentioned levels. As we stated before, the pair is overbought on the higher time frames and this increases the chance of a bearish move, but we maintain our neutral stance until a break of either support or resistance occurs.

Fundamental Outlook

The day is calm for the Pound as the United Kingdom didn�t schedule for release any high-impact indicators. Price direction will be mainly affected by technical factors.


We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: MIXED PRICE ACTION AHEAD OF MARIO DRAGHI�S TESTIMONY

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday lacked major news announcements and price action was extremely slow, moving sideways for almost the entire day. Support is still holding as the pair traded in a 35 pip range.

http://master.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/2014.07.14-Mixed-price-action-ahead-of-Mario-Draghis-testimony-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

Price remains confined within the horizontal channel created by the support located at 1.3585 and the resistance at 1.3640. Lately the pair totally lacks volatility and bounces between S/R levels as neither bulls nor bears seem interested to take control of direction. We expect more of this type of movement until 1.3640 or 1.3585 is broken, a fact which may occur today during Mario Draghi�s speech.

Fundamental Outlook

At 5:00 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will testify on monetary policy in Strasbourg, before European Parliament�s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs. The speech will most likely offer clues about future monetary direction and actions of the ECB, probably generating a price breakout. We recommend caution if trading during the speech.

GBP/USD

The Pound slowed down Friday and weakened against the greenback but the bears couldn�t take the pair below 1.7095 and the week finished above this support.

http://master.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/2014.07.14-Mixed-price-action-ahead-of-Mario-Draghis-testimony-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.7095 has been tested several times and the downwards pressure is increasing lately. The Pound reached historical highs and now the time for a bearish retracement has come, considering the fact that price is overextended and the Relative Strength Index is moving down from overbought territory on the higher time frames (Daily and Weekly). If today 1.7095 is broken, the first potential target is 1.7063; otherwise we will have another day when price ranges inside the channel.

Fundamental Outlook

We have a calm economic day as no major events are scheduled by the UK. Price action will be mostly driven by technical factors.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: FULL DAY AHEAD. HIGH-PROFILE EVENTS AND HEAVY MOVEMENT EXPECTED

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Euro adopted a bullish path yesterday on the back of speculation that the ECB might use more stimulus measures such as a lending program which will boost consumer credit.

http://master.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/image001-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

The pair moved higher, in close vicinity of 1.3640 resistance but according to the ranging style which governs the market lately, it bounced lower. The main levels to watch remain1.3640 as resistance and 1.3585 as support but considering today�s main events, we anticipate a breakout; however, the direction will be totally dependent on the outcome of these events.

Fundamental Outlook

Germany will announce at 9:00 am GMT the ZEW Economic Sentiment will be released, showing the level of optimism among German institutional investors and analysts who are highly informed about economic conditions due to the nature of their jobs. The anticipated value is 28.9, a decrease from the previous 29.8 and lower numbers usually weaken the Euro.

The US Retail Sales are released at 12:30 pm GMT; the indicator measures the change in sales made at retail outlets and its release is considered to have a high impact. The expected value is 0.6% compared with the previous 0.3% and higher numbers are beneficial for the US Dollar.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen will testify today at 2:00 pm GMT in Washington before the Senate Banking Committee; the topic is the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report and the speech is likely to be a major market mover, especially during its the second part when members of the Committee will ask questions and Janet Yellen will answer them.

GBP/USD

The Pound finally retraced yesterday and managed to break the closest support. The move south is attributed to high prices that were overextended and in need of a breather.

http://master.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/image003-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

The break of the support located at 1.7095 is not a reason to believe the uptrend has finished but rather a signal that bullish momentum is fading. The chances of moves upwards remain high and a good place for uptrend resumption is 1.7063 (which is potential support, not confirmed yet), followed by 1.7010. The day�s fundamental events will have a very high impact on price action.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom�s Consumer Price Index will be announced today at 8:30 am GMT. The indicator shows the price that consumers have to pay for the goods they purchase and is the main gauge of inflation; any increases above the expected 1.6% can further strengthen the Pound, taking the pair higher.

BOE Governor Mark Carney will testify at 9:00 am GMT about the Financial Stability Report at the House of Commons Treasury Committee Hearing. The testimony can have a huge effect on Pound�s movement, depending on the Governor�s attitude and answers so we recommend caution if trading at the time. Of course, the US events mentioned above will have a direct and high impact on price action.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR IN THE SPOTLIGHT FOR YELLEN�S SECOND TESTIMONY

EUR/USD

Forex News: Germany posted yesterday a disappointing number for the ZEW Economic Sentiment, showing that optimism regarding economic conditions is declining. On top of that, Fed Chair Janet Yellen stated that the economy continues to improve and the US Dollar added to the previous gains.

http://master.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/2014.07.16-US-Dollar-in-the-spotlight-for-Yellens-second-testimony-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.3585 was broken yesterday on the back of Euro weakness coupled with greenback strength but the level still needs to be re-tested to confirm the break. This re-test is usually seen easier on a lower time frame and if it is successful, we anticipate a touch of the next support, located at 1.3520. A move back above 1.3585 would make 1.3640 the first target and would suggest that the ranging period is still not over.

Fundamental Outlook

The US Producer Price index is released at 12:30 pm GMT, showing the change in prices paid by producers for their goods and services, compared to the previous month. The indicator has inflationary implications because a higher price charged by producers will be eventually passed on to retailers and ultimately, to the consumer. The expected change is 0.2% compared with last month�s -0.2% and higher numbers are considered beneficial for the greenback. Later in the day, at 2:00 pm GMT Fed Chair Yellen will testify before the House Financial Services Committee, an event considered to have a high impact on the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The Pound scored another major victory against the greenback as United Kingdom�s CPI showed an unexpected increase from 1.5% to 1.9%. As a result, the pair printed a new multi-year high at 1.7191.

http://master.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/2014.07.16-US-Dollar-in-the-spotlight-for-Yellens-second-testimony-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

Although we have a new high, the resistance located around 1.7180 held yesterday and even rejected price lower; at the moment, that resistance is just pierced, not broken and we expect a new descent into 1.7095 support zone as the market is still overextended. A daily close above 1.7180 would be considered a true break of resistance and would indicate that higher prices will follow.

Fundamental Outlook

The day�s main event for the Pound is the release of the Claimant Count Change, an indicator which tracks changes in the number of unemployed people claiming social help due to their lack of jobs. A higher number suggests economic contraction and usually weakens the Pound; the release is scheduled at 8:30 am GMT and the expected change is -27.1K while the previous was -27.4K.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: ALL EYES TURN TOWARDS EUROPEAN INFLATION INDICATORS

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar continued to advance against the Euro as Fed Chair Janet Yellen maintained a hawkish attitude and the US Producer Price Index change surpassed analysts� expectations. Price is nearing support but no attempts were made to break it.

http://master.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/2014.07.17-All-eyes-turn-towards-European-inflation-indicators-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

An important support for medium term price action is ahead: 1.3520 and we are faced with another bounce-or-break scenario. However, this time we slightly favor a bounce north, mostly because the Relative Strength Index has passed the 30 level downwards, suggesting oversold conditions and from a medium term perspective, the pair has been ranging. If the current support is broken, the next destination is likely to be 1.3480 (visible on a Daily chart).

Fundamental Outlook

The day�s main event will be the release of the European Consumer Price Index scheduled at 9:00 am GMT and expected to remain unchanged at 0.5%. ECB�s inflation target is just below 2% and the current CPI value is considered too low, thus an even lower value would be detrimental for the Euro.

At 2:00 pm GMT the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index comes out, showing the opinions of about 250 manufacturers from the Philadelphia district regarding current economic and business conditions. The expected value is 15.6, a decrease from the previous 17.8 and lower numbers usually weaken the greenback.

GBP/USD

The pair had a mixed trading day yesterday and price remained confined between support and resistance despite signs of improving job market in the United Kingdom.

http://master.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/2014.07.17-All-eyes-turn-towards-European-inflation-indicators-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

Price is still on its way to 1.7095 following a bounce off 1.7180 resistance zone. The Relative Strength Index doesn�t show an extreme reading so there is no major reason to believe that bulls will take back control of the pair unless the US economy will show surprising figures.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom has a calm day ahead in terms of economic releases so all eyes will turn towards the United States events.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: SUPPORT LEVELS AHEAD. A BOUNCE-OR-BREAK SCENARIO UNFOLDS

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair touched 1.3520 support yesterday but the European CPI remained unchanged and price stalled. The US Manufacturing Index for the Philadelphia district posted a surprisingly good value but the release just briefly strengthened the US Dollar.

http://master.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/2014.07.18-Support-levels-ahead.-A-bounce-or-break-scenario-unfolds-pic1-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

The bears� run seems exhausted and the Relative Strength Index is starting to climb out of oversold territory, a fact which suggests that support is still too strong for the sellers to break and that a bounce up might be next. However, yesterday�s ranging price action leaves the door open for both a bounce and a break. First resistance is located at 1.3585 while support sits at 1.3480 (if the current level is broken).

Fundamental Outlook

The sole release that can trigger sharp moves is the US Consumer Sentiment which is a leading indicator of consumer spending because usually when people are optimistic about the country�s economic conditions, they tend to spend more. The release is scheduled at 1:55 pm GMT and the expected figure is 83.5, a rise from the previous 82.5; if analysts� forecast is surpassed, we are likely to see US Dollar strength.

GBP/USD

The Pound wasn�t affected by major news releases yesterday and the pair continued to move down towards 1.7095 as predicted. The US release helped the bears achieve this target.

http://master.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/2014.07.18-Support-levels-ahead.-A-bounce-or-break-scenario-unfolds-pic2-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

For medium term movement, the support located at 1.7063 is very important but the first barrier in front of falling prices is the current level of 1.7095. A break of both these levels would indicate that the pair is ready for a bigger retracement and that the uptrend is starting to fade away. A bounce higher could potentially generate a climb back into 1.7180 area of resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

Ahead we have another day that lacks major United Kingdom news, thus price direction will be mainly affected by the technical factors and by the US release.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: A LACKLUSTER FUNDAMENTAL SCENE TRANSLATES INTO A SLOW MONDAY

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday�s trading session was characterized by a major reversal of what seemed to be a clear break of support. The US Consumer Sentiment survey showed a small decrease but the release didn�t have major impact on the pair.

http://master.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/image0012-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

Once price entered the zone created between 1.3520 and 1.3480 it was immediately rejected higher. This fact shows that bulls still have underlying strength and that a break of support is a low probability occurrence. The Relative Strength Index continues to move upwards, coming from an oversold condition and for today, we expect higher prices but a slow, ranging day is also a distinct possibility since no major economic indicators are released.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Bundesbank will release their Monthly Report at 10:00 am GMT, containing statistical data and analysis of current and future financial conditions. The event tends to have a higher impact if Bundesbank�s viewpoint differs from the one shown by the ECB.

GBP/USD

The pair had mixed direction Friday as the bears controlled the first part of the day but the Pound erased almost all losses during the second part. Support was tested but price was price higher after a brief dip below.

http://master.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/image0032-1024x477.png

Technical Outlook

The fact that price was rejected after trying to break 1.7063 may very well be a sign that bulls are ready to resume upwards movement and to take the pair into 1.7180 once again. Even if such a move occurs, we don�t believe the entire distance will be traveled in one day and at the moment 1.7095 sits in front of rising prices. We anticipate a ranging day, with price moving above and below the level which was just mentioned.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn�t schedule major news releases for today, thus price action will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: MARKET PICKS UP DIRECTION AHEAD OF US INFLATION DATA

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday�s trading session was mostly characterized by indecision and we saw the pair move higher just to drop immediately to touch support again. Overall the direction was mixed and price had ranging behavior.

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Technical Outlook


For today we expect a more directional price action as the pair will probably break away from the current level of 1.3520. However, the direction of the move will be mostly influenced by the US economic data due to be released today, because the technical side of the market doesn�t hold any special clues. Yesterday�s high (1.3550) will potentially act as resistance while 1.3520 � 1.3500 zone still acts as support.

Fundamental Outlook

The day�s main event is the release of the US Consumer Price Index, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. A small change is expected from the previous 0.4% to 0.3%, a fact which would suggest that inflation has slowed down and could potentially weaken the US Dollar. AT 2:00 pm GMT the US Existing Home Sales numbers are released, showing the change in the annualized number of houses sold during the last month. If the number of houses sold increases, this often means that the buyers will spend additional money for furniture, house appliances, electronic devices, etc., thus spurring consumer spending. It also indicates that people are confident in economic conditions since a house is purchased usually when the economy is thriving. Today�s expected number is 4.98M, an increase from last month�s 4.89M.

GBP/USD

The lack of major economic releases generated a ranging day for the GBP/USD as well. Price moved between 1.7095 and 1.7063 without being able to break free for the entire day.

http://master.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/2014.07.22-Market-picks-up-direction-ahead-of-US-inflation-data-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

If the bears can take price below 1.7063 and at least one four-hour candle will close below this level, we are likely to see a touch of 1.7010 support next. A move above 1.7095 will open the door for uptrend resumption and possibly a touch of 1.7080 resistance zone (even if this comes true, the distance is too big to be traveled in a single day).

Fundamental Outlook

AT 10:00 am GMT the Confederation of British Industry will announce the Industrial Orders Expectations. This is a survey based on the opinions of about 550 manufacturers which shows the expectations of order volume for the next 3 months. Analysts� forecast is a decrease from the previous 11 to 9, a fact which would be detrimental for the Pound if it were to come true.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: BEARS BREAK SUPPORT. SOME CORRECTION EXPECTED

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar strengthened yesterday against the Euro as speculation of Fed increasing interest rates took over the market. The American Consumer Price Index came out as anticipated, at 0.3%.

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Technical Outlook


The pair finally broke the support zone created around 1.3500 and is now headed for the next important level of 1.3400 seen on the daily chart above. However, from a four hour chart perspective, the Relative Strength Index has passed the 30 level to the downside once again, suggesting an oversold condition of the market. This indicates that upside corrections are likely to happen today and we expect moves above 1.3480 before price can resume bearish movement.

Fundamental Outlook

Today price action will be dictated mainly by the technical factors since no major economic indicators are released by either the United States or Europe.

GBP/USD

Price moved below 1.7063 yesterday on the back of US Dollar strength but the gains weren�t as significant as the ones seen against the Euro. The pair continues to lack clear direction but the long term uptrend is severely weakened.

http://master.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/2014.07.23-Bears-break-support.-Some-correction-expected-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The first barrier in front of the bears is located at 1.7010 but for the time being the support at 1.7063 is still not clearly surpassed. The four hour candle has long upper and lower wicks, a fact which indicates indecision and shows that control doesn�t belong to either side completely. The pair�s direction will be decided today by the fundamental aspect.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the votes on the latest BOE interest rate will be made public, showing how many MPC members voted for a rate change and how many voted to keep the rate unchanged. Analysts predict that all 9 members voted to keep rates unchanged and if this forecast comes true, the impact of the release will be mild.

At 11:45 am GMT, BOE Governor Mark Carney will speak in Glasgow at the Commonwealth Games Trade and Investment conference. As always, his speeches can be accompanied by increased volatility and sudden moves, thus caution is recommended.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: MANUFACTURING DATA BRINGS THE EURO OUT OF CONSOLIDATION PHASE

EUR/USD

Forex News: Price moved sideways for the entire day yesterday as no major economic indicators were released by either the United States or Europe. The trading session was extremely slow and no important levels were broken.

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Technical Outlook

The pair almost paused yesterday, consolidating below 1.3480 and moving in a 20 pip range for almost the entire day, making trading very difficult. Also, yesterday�s price action doesn�t add any clues to the pair�s next direction so we maintain our belief that price will correct slightly to the north before dropping further. On a four hour chart the Relative Strength Index is coming out of oversold territory, a fact which adds to the bias showed above.

Fundamental Outlook

The Euro will be influenced today by two releases: at 7:00 am GMT the French Manufacturing PMI is scheduled and at 7:30 am GMT, the same indicator for the German economy comes out. The French PMI is expected to increase from 48.2 to 48.5 while the German PMI is anticipated to change from 52.0 to 52.2. These are surveys derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector and better readings show optimism, usually strengthening the single currency.

GBP/USD

All members of BOE�s Monetary Policy Committee voted to keep rates unchanged but the Minutes of their latest meeting were a bit more dovish than market participants anticipated and the Pound weakened throughout the day as a result.

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Technical Outlook

We expect the current direction to continue until 1.7010 is touched as this is the first level of support and it is likely to act as a magnet for price. Yesterday price moved north to touch 1.7095 and immediately bounced lower, showing that this level is now resistance. If the Relative Strength Index will indicate oversold conditions once support is touched, the probability of a move north will increase.

Fundamental Outlook

The main event for the Pound will be the release of UK�s Retail Sales, scheduled at 8:30 am GMT. Sales made at a retail level represent a major part of the economy and thus hold a great importance for the Pound�s strength. The anticipated change is 0.2%, compared with last month�s -0.5%, a fact which would strengthen the Pound if it were to come true.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: BEARS IN CONTROL BUT BULLISH PRESSURE MOUNTS

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the Euro was strongly affected by a German survey which showed that optimism among purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector has increased. The better than expected value reversed a previous drop generated by the French counterpart of the same indicator.

http://master.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/2014.07.25-Bears-in-control-but-bullish-pressure-mounts-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

At the moment price is re-testing the recently broken level of 1.3480 and if this results in a bounce lower, the level will turn into resistance and the door will be open for a move towards 1.3400 which is the next support. If 1.3480 doesn�t become resistance, the next level that can stop bullish movement is located at 1.3500.

Fundamental Outlook


At 8:00 am GMT the German IFO Business Climate is released and expected to show a value of 109.6. The survey draws its importance from the large sample of about 7,000 businesses which are asked to rate the current economic conditions and to give a 6-month outlook. Under normal circumstances, better than anticipated numbers strengthen the Euro and push the pair higher.

The US Durable Goods Orders come out at 12:30 pm GMT and a hefty increase is expected: 0.4% from the previous -0.9%. This is a leading indicator of production since more orders suggest that producers will have to increase their activity in order to fill them.

GBP/USD

United Kingdom�s Retail Sales disappointed as the value was lower than forecast and this fact triggered Pound weakness which took the pair below support.

http://master.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/2014.07.25-Bears-in-control-but-bullish-pressure-mounts-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The level at 1.7010 was broken decisively and lower prices may follow, but before that can happen, a pullback to the upside is very probable; the Relative Strength Index has already passed the 30 level, reaching oversold territory, a fact which increases bullish pressure. The first potential resistance is now located at 1.7010 while support sits at 1.6950 followed by 1.6920.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom�s most important gauge of economic performance is announced today at 8:30 am GMT: the Gross Domestic Product. No change is expected from last month�s value of 0.8% but any fluctuations will most likely have a big impact.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: ALL THE INGREDIENTS FOR A MARKET STORM ARE PRESENT. MAJOR US EVENTS SCHEDULED

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar strengthened yesterday on the back of improved American consumer confidence as shown by a report which came out with a reading of 90.9 compared with the anticipated value of 85.5. Sellers controlled the day but the distance traveled wasn�t spectacular.

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Technical Outlook

Price is close to the support located at 1.3400 and we consider that today this level will be touched. The technical aspect of the market will be greatly overshadowed by the fundamentals but keep in mind that the Relative Strength Index is moving again below the 30 level, a fact which indicates an oversold market and favors bullish moves. Support is still located at 1.3400 while resistance sits at 1.3480.

Fundamental Outlook

The first event of the day is the release of the German Consumer Price Index, scheduled at 12:00 pm GMT and expected to decrease slightly from the previous 0f 0.3% to 0.2%. Such a decrease would be detrimental for the Euro as German inflation accounts for the major part of Euro Zone�s inflation.

The ADP Non Farm Employment Change is released at 12:15 pm GMT, showing the change in the number of jobs created during the last month. The report is put together by a privately owned company and tries to mimic the more important Government issued data which comes out 2 days later. The expected number is 234K and better numbers usually strengthen the greenback.

At 12:30 pm GMT the American Advance Gross Domestic Product is announced with a hefty increase expected: 3.1% while last month�s value was -2.9%. Such a big change would benefit the Dollar as the GDP is the main gauge of an economy�s performance and this is the earliest version which usually has the highest impact.


Later in the day, at 6:00 pm GMT the American interest rate is announced but no change is anticipated and the FOMC Statement which accompanies the rate decision will be a more important market mover as it outlines possible future rate changes and the pace of the bond-buying program.

GBP/USD

The Pound was little affected by economic releases yesterday and Dollar strength took the pair below minor support.

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Technical Outlook

A strong support level is ahead: 1.6920; price is likely to stall or even reverse here, considering also the position of the Relative Strength Index, but as we mentioned above, the US Dollar will be highly affected today by economic data and the technical aspect will be secondary. The next strong and confirmed support (if 1.6920 is broken) is located at 1.6700 while first resistance sits at 1.7010.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn�t schedule major news releases and all eyes will be focused on the United States.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: NON FARM PAYROLLS � THE WEEK�S FINAL MARKET MOVER

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair had mixed direction yesterday as the Euro was weakened by a disappointing value of the Consumer Price Index, but apparently the US Dollar wasn�t strong enough to take the pair significantly lower.

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Technical Outlook

From a four-hour chart perspective the pair is in a clear downtrend but signs of weakness are present although the support at 1.3400 was broken and was tested from below several times (visible on the lower time frames). A sign of weakness is the fact that bears failed to break the low at 1.3366 even if 1.3400 turned into resistance; also, the Relative Strength Index spent a lot of time hugging the 30 level which suggests an oversold market. However, today�s direction will be decided by the fundamental rather than the technical aspect.

Fundamental Outlook

The day�s market moving event is the release of the US Non Farm Payrolls which is the most important jobs-related data for the US economy and tracks changes in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming sector. The release is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and the expected change is 230K while last month�s number was 288K. Such a decrease would weaken the greenback and drive the pair higher.

GBP/USD

The Pound continued to lose ground to the US Dollar yesterday and we saw the bears in control for the most part of the day. Broken support was successfully re-tested from below and price bounced lower.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/2014.08.01-Non-Farm-Payrolls-the-weeks-final-market-mover-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The Relative Strength Index is trading below the 30 level for an extended period of time and the short term downtrend is in need of a retracement higher. Yesterday�s low will most likely act as minor support and if today the bears don�t manage to break it, we will most likely see higher prices. The US Dollar will be highly affected by the NFP release and the technical aspect will be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom�s Manufacturing PMI will be released today at 8:30 am GMT and expected to drop slightly from the previous 57.5 to 57.2. This survey is based on the opinions of purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector and acts as a leading indicator of economic health so better than expected numbers will probably strengthen the Pound.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: ECONOMIC DATA BRINGS PRICE OUT OF MONDAY�S TIGHT RANGE

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday�s trading session lacked volatility almost completely as the market took a �breather� after Friday�s stronger than usual movement. No economic indicators were released and this contributed to the ranging price action.

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Technical Outlook

The minor resistance created at 1.3445 wasn�t threatened yesterday but this will be the first barrier which the bulls need to break in order to weaken last month�s downtrend. Support is located at 1.3400 and until either one of the mentioned levels is broken, the market will remain in a ranging phase. For the time being our bias is neutral, expecting a breakout.

Fundamental Outlook

The Euro Zone Retail Sales change percentage is released today at 9:00 am GMT and expected o increase to 0.4% from the previous 0.0%. Higher numbers suggest increased economic activity and usually strengthen the Euro as the retail sector is a major part of the European economy.

At 2:00 pm GMT the US Non Manufacturing PMI is released, showing the opinions of purchasing managers outside of the manufacturing sector about economic and business conditions. The expected value is 56.6, an increase from the previous 56.0 and under normal circumstances, higher than anticipated values are beneficial for the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

United Kingdom�s Construction PMI showed yesterday a slightly better than anticipated reading and as a result the Pound climbed but overall we had a slow trading day.

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Technical Outlook

For the time being the bulls lack the strength needed to reverse the medium term downtrend and we are likely to see another encounter with the support located at 1.6809. If this potential encounter will occur, and support will hold, price is likely to shoot up, considering the fact that the pair needs a bullish correction after such an extended drop as the one seen during the last month.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom�s Services PMI is announced today at 8:30 am GMT and expected to increase from the previous 57.7 to 58.1. The indicator is an index derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from the Services sector regarding current and future business conditions and acts as a leading indicator of economic health. Readings above 50 indicate optimism and numbers above estimates usually strengthen the Pound, driving the pair higher.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR CONTINUES ITS ADVANCE. EURO BULLS FIGHT BACK

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar gained against most of its counterparts as yesterday�s reports showed improvements for the US economy and traders� interest for the American currency was renewed.

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Technical Outlook

The pair fell for almost the entire day and the downtrend has new found strength as 1.3400 support was clearly broken. The next important support level is located at 1.3295 but the current level of 1.3365 is very likely to stop short term movement as we will probably see price stall here. The day ahead lacks major economic releases thus ranging price action might be in order.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Factory Orders are announced at 6:00 am GMT and expected to increase from -1.7% to 0.5%, a fact which would benefit the Euro; later in the day, at 12:30 pm GMT the US Trade Balance is released, showing the difference between imported and exported goods. The expected figure is -44.2B and values closer to zero will most likely strengthen the greenback. Both indicators usually have a medium-impact on the market but surprising numbers can increase their importance.

GBP/USD

United Kingdom�s Services PMI posted a better than expected value and momentarily strengthened the Pound; however, the rally couldn�t be continued and the Dollar erased some of the Pound�s early gains.

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Technical Outlook

The first logical place where downwards motion can be resumed is the resistance located at 1.6920, but considering the way the pair has been moving lately, we might see this resumption occur before the level is hit. The US Dollar is strong at the moment and bullish moves should be regarded as corrections, not reversals of the medium term downtrend. The first level of interest to the downside is 1.6809.

Fundamental Outlook

The main Pound-affecting event of the day is the release of the UK Manufacturing Production which is expected to change to 0.7% from last month�s -1.3%. The indicator measures change in the output produced by the manufacturing sector and is considered a high-impact indicator; the time of the release is 8:30 am GMT and better values will most likely strengthen the Pound.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

B]FOREX NEWS: ECB PRESS CONFERENCE: THE DAY�S MOST INFLUENTIAL EVENT

EUR/USD[/B]

Forex News: The Euro dropped yesterday as the German Factory Orders showed an extremely disappointing figure, while demand for the US Dollar increased on the back of a better than expected value of the American Trade Balance.

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Technical Outlook

After a brief stall at 1.3365 minor support, the pair resumed bearish price action and broke the level with relative ease. If this previous minor support will turn into resistance today (after a test from below, followed by a potential bounce lower), the next target will become the key level at 1.3295, but today price direction will be heavily influenced by Mario Draghi�s speech at the ECB Press Conference.

Fundamental Outlook

At 11:45 am GMT the ECB will announce their decision regarding the Interest Rate (no change is anticipated) but the real market mover will probably be the Press Conference held 45 minutes later. ECB President Mario Draghi will read a prepared statement and afterwards, he will answer journalists� questions about monetary policy, rate changes and economic recovery plans. This second part of the Press Conference is usually the one that creates the highest volatility as traders around the world try to interpret Draghi�s attitude and answers. We recommend caution if trading at the time because price action can be erratic during the Conference.

GBP/USD

United Kingdom�s Manufacturing output showed a figure of 0.3%, lower than the anticipated 0.7%, a fact which weakened the Pound and allowed the US Dollar to resume the pair�s downwards movement.

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Technical Outlook

Yesterday�s price action created minor resistance around 1.6885 and the first support is located at 1.6809. The medium term downtrend seems to be resumed but as a confirmation, the level at 1.6809 must be broken today. Bearish pressure is present and the Pound is weakened by the latest disappointing figures but a major role will be played today by the BOE decision regarding the interest rate.

Fundamental Outlook

At 11:00 am GMT the Bank of England will announce the interest rate and although no changes are anticipated (currently the rate is set at 0.50%), the event is likely to generate some volatility. The outcome of the rate decision is somewhat known as almost all analysts expect it to remain unchanged but caution is recommended nonetheless.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: THE WEEK FINISHES WITH THE GREENBACK IN CONTROL

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday�s ECB Press Conference generated mixed movement as the pair reversed direction several times. ECB President Mario Draghi mentioned that rates in Europe will remain lower for a longer period than they will in the United States.

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Technical Outlook

The Euro was weakened by Mario Draghi�s comments and this bearish momentum is likely to continue throughout today�s session. First support and barrier in front of falling prices is located in the zone around 1.3330 and a break would open the door for a move into the more important support located at 1.3295; first resistance is represented by the level at 1.3400.

Fundamental Outlook

Both the Euro and the US Dollar have a calm day ahead as far as economic news releases are concerned. Price action will be mostly influenced by the technical aspect.

GBP/USD

The Bank of England maintained the interest rate value unchanged and as a result the event didn�t create volatility or strong directional movement.

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Technical Outlook

The pair remained confined between 1.6885 resistance and 1.6809 support. Today we are likely to see a breakout which will probably favor the bears, considering the fact that the medium term trend is down. The next major support is located at 1.6700 but we don�t expect such a distance to be traveled in one day even if 1.6809 is broken decisively; first resistance is represented by the top created around 1.6885.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom�s Trade Balance is released today at 8:30 am GMT, showing the difference between imported and exported goods. The indicator is considered to have a mild impact but higher numbers than the anticipated -8.9B will most likely strengthen the Pound, driving the pair higher.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: IRAQ TENSIONS MAKE THEIR MARK ON THE CURRENCY MARKET

EUR/USD

US planes bombed several military targets in Iraq as tensions escalated and the Americans intervened in order to prevent a massacre of religious minorities. The Dollar was negatively affected by these events and the pair climbed Friday for the entire day.

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Technical Outlook

At the moment market participants are moving to safe-haven assets as the UD Dollar is considered too volatile and risky. The current rally is likely to continue thru 1.3445 resistance if the political situation doesn�t calm down; the Dollar�s movement will be highly affected by this new tension and S/R levels might be broken with ease so we recommend caution for the next days.

Fundamental Outlook

The day lacks major economic indicators and we expect slow movement but a lot depends on the developments in Iraq.

GBP/USD

Minor support was broken and the Pound weakened Friday against the greenback although the latter was affected by the Iraq crisis.

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Technical Outlook

The bearish move is overextended as the Relative Strength Index is again trading in oversold territory. Today we are likely to see a move higher which can find resistance at the recently broken level of 1.6809 but, as mentioned above, price will be prone to sudden changes of direction, depending on Iraq developments. First support is located at 1.6700 but this level is not likely to be touched today.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn�t schedule any major news releases today but we recommend caution, considering the political environment.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: GERMANY�S ZEW SURVEY IN THE FOCUS

EUR/USD

Yesterday the pair grinded lower but movement was very sluggish as the day didn�t have any major news releases and tensions in Iraq and Ukraine eased.

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Technical Outlook

Price returned below 1.3400, a fact which shows that bulls lack the strength needed to stage a full scale reversal. Lately the pair is confined between 1.3445 resistance and 1.3330 support but we slightly favor a move into the mentioned support, especially if the bears can maintain price below the current level of 1.3400.

Fundamental Outlook

The day�s only major event is the release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment scheduled at 9:00 am GMT. This is a survey based on the opinions of German analysts and institutional investors and it�s focused on their opinions regarding a 6 month outlook. The nature of their jobs keeps them highly informed on the economic situation and at the same time, increases the importance of this survey. The expected number is 18.2, a significant decrease from the previous 27.1 and lower numbers will most likely weaken the Euro.

GBP/USD

The pair had an extremely slow day yesterday and no major developments took place on either the fundamental or the technical scene.


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Technical Outlook

We expect a touch of 1.6809 resistance before downside movement can resume and it is important to note that price is printing lower lows while the Relative Strength Index is showing higher lows, a behavior known as regular bullish divergence. Often times this divergence results in moves north but the medium term downtrend is strong so we are likely to see bearish movement after an upside correction.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn�t schedule any important indicators for the day thus the pair�s direction will be mainly affected by the technical aspect.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR AFFECTED BY RETAIL SALES FIGURES, POUND INFLUENCED BY CARNEY�S SPEECH

EUR/USD

The German ZEW survey disappointed drastically by posting a reading of 8.6, while the anticipated number was 18.2 and as a result the Euro lost ground in front of the greenback for almost the entire day.

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Technical Outlook

As soon as price came in close vicinity of 1.3330 support, a bullish reaction could be seen and this indicates that price may stall or even reverse at this level. The medium term downtrend is bearish but a new low couldn�t be established since last week and the pair is at a crossroad: a break of 1.3330 will most likely take price into 1.3295 key support while a bounce would suggest that 1.3400 will be revisited.

Fundamental Outlook

The US Retail Sales will be the day�s main event for the pair. Higher values suggest a thriving economy where people are comfortable spending and this fuels further economic activity. The scheduled time of the release is 12:30 pm GMT and the expected change is 0.2%, same as last month; better than anticipated values usually strengthen the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

As expected the Pound bounced higher yesterday, completing a bullish retracement which took price into the first minor resistance. No major economic indicators were released and the move was mostly generated by technical factors.

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Technical Outlook

We are faced with a bounce-or-break scenario at the current level of 1.6809 and from a technical point of view a drop would be in order since yesterday�s move was just a correction to the downtrend. A bullish break of the current level will make 1.6885 the next target while a bounce lower will probably take the pair close to the major support at 1.6700.

Fundamental Outlook

Price direction will be heavily influenced today by UK�s Claimant Count Change, an indicator which tracks changes in the number of unemployed people compared to the last month. It will be released at 8:30 am GMT with an anticipated change of -29.7 (previous -36.3) and higher numbers will most likely weaken the Pound. An hour later the BOE will release the Inflation Report and Governor Mark Carney will deliver a speech regarding its contents. This is likely to be the main event of the day for the Pound, depending on the Governor�s attitude and matters discussed.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: EURO BACK IN THE SPOTLIGHT FOR THE RELEASE OF THE GERMAN GDP

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the US Dollar weakened on the back of a disappointing figure shown by the Retail Sales and this allowed the pair to climb above 1.3400 support.

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Technical Outlook

As we saw, even if 1.3400 was pierced yesterday, the bulls couldn�t maintain price above this level and this suggests that we might see more of the ranging movement experienced lately. Another encounter with 1.3330 is very possible now that we�ve seen price rejected by resistance. If 1.3330 is broken, the pair is likely to visit 1.3295, while 1.3400 still remains the first resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

The day�s main event will be the release of the German Preliminary Gross Domestic Product which is scheduled for release at 6:00 am GMT and is expected to decrease from the previous 0.8% to -0.1%. The GDP is considered to be an economy�s main performance gauge and since Germany accounts for the major part of Europe�s economy, lower numbers will most likely have a negative impact on the single currency.

GBP/USD

As revealed by the Inflation Report, the Bank of England cut their expectations for economic growth and also, BOE Governor Carney mentioned that interest rates will not be increased in the near future. The pound weakened significantly as a result and major support was touched.

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Technical Outlook

The key support level at 1.6700 was touched as the pair traveled substantially lower. This huge drop is likely to continue throughout today but it�s also very possible to see a stall before the level will be clearly broken. The Relative Strength Index has reached oversold territory again and we are likely to see some sort of bullish movement. The next support is located at 1.6550, a level visible on a Daily chart.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no major economic releases scheduled for the Pound today and price action will be influenced mostly by the technical aspect.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: BOTH PAIRS BELOW RESISTANCE. RETESTS ANTICIPATED

EUR/USD

Forex News: Germany�s Preliminary Gross Domestic Product showed a lower than expected value, but despite this, the Euro strengthened throughout the day. However, resistance couldn�t be broken and the pair shows signs of indecision.

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Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.3400 was pierced again yesterday but, similar to a day before, price returned almost immediately below the level. This shows underlying bearish pressure and warns about a potential drop below the support located at 1.3300. However, if during the day the bulls manage to close a significant candle above 1.3400, we are likely to see a move in close vicinity of 1.3445.

Fundamental Outlook

French and Italian banks will be closed today, celebrating Assumption Day and no major news comes out for the Euro. The US Dollar will be affected by the Producer Price Index which is released at 12:30 pm GMT and is expected to post a change of 0.1% compared with last month�s 0.4%. The PPI has inflationary implications because a higher price charged by producers will be eventually transmitted to the consumer.

At 1:55 pm GMT the University of Michigan will release the Consumer Sentiment survey based on the opinions of about 500 consumers. The expected figure is 82.7, an increase from the prior 81.8 and higher numbers are usually beneficial for the US Dollar because confidence among consumers is often a leading indicator of consumer spending.

GBP/USD

The pair had a slow trading session but we saw a new low followed by a bullish retracement which didn�t manage to take price above 1.6700.

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Technical Outlook

Today we expect a test of the level at 1.6700 and this test will decide whether the pair can continue lower towards 1.6550 or a stronger move north is in order. The Relative Strength Index is coming out of oversold territory and this favors bullish moves but the bears control the market at the moment so all moves to the upside should be considered just corrections.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom�s second estimate of the Gross Domestic Product is released today at 8:30 am GMT. The expected change is 0.8%, same as last month and under normal circumstances, higher numbers benefit the Pound as the GDP is an economy�s main gauge of overall performance.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: A LACKLUSTER FUNDAMENTAL SCENE BRINGS A SLOW MONDAY

EUR/USD

United States� Producer Price Index released Friday posted a value which was anticipated and the event didn�t have a huge impact on the US Dollar. The day lacked major developments and price action was mostly ranging.

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Technical Outlook

The pair remained confined between 1.3400 resistance and 1.3330 support but another attempt to break resistance was made; however, this attempt didn�t succeed and the week finished very close to the mentioned level. For the time being, the bulls lack the strength needed to shift the balance in their favor and another encounter with 1.3330 support is a high probability scenario, especially if today resistance is not clearly broken


Fundamental Outlook

The only notable event of the day is the release of the German Bundesbank Monthly Report which usually contains notes about economic conditions and an economic outlook. The release is scheduled at 10:00 am GMT and has a higher impact if the point of view expressed differs from the one of the European Central Bank.

GBP/USD

The second estimate of the British Gross Domestic Product released Friday didn�t surprise in any way and the pair had a slow day, without major direction changes.

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Technical Outlook

The pair is trading close to 1.6700, a level which acts like a magnet for price for the time being. For today we anticipate more of the ranging movement experienced Friday but keep in mind that the Relative Strength Index is coming out of oversold territory on a four-hour chart and on a Daily chart it still shows an oversold condition. This favors bullish action for the day and increases the chances of a move above 1.6700.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn�t schedule any high-impact releases for the day, thus price direction will be mostly influenced by the technical aspect.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: INFLATION INDICATORS IN THE SPOTLIGHT

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Euro had a tough first day of the week against the Dollar and we saw the pair travel south after a slow start of the session; however, major support is still intact.

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Technical Outlook

It is clearer now that 1.3400 resistance cannot be broken for the time being and that 1.3330 support is the next target of the pair. We can see several four-hour candles with long upper wicks, a fact that indicates rejection and on top of that, once price started to move south, it did so with strong momentum (full bearish candles). The day�s direction will be also affected by the fundamental scene which becomes busier today.

Fundamental Outlook

An important inflation gauge is released today by the United States: the Consumer Price index. This indicator tracks changes in the price paid by consumers for the goods they purchase and basically shows the buying power of the US Dollar. The event is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and a drop is anticipated, from the previous 0.3% to 0.1%; if this comes true, the greenback will most likely weaken against its counterparts.

GBP/USD

The week opened with a gap to the upside, a fact generated by a Sunday Times interview with Mark Carney who reignited speculation of a rate hike.

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Technical Outlook

More often than not, weekly gaps tend to be filled, thus another move below 1.6700 might be in order. However, the time factor is not known, meaning that even if the gap will be closed, we cannot know when this is going to happen. For the time being, 1.6700 is not clearly broken and at least a touch of this level will probably occur today.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom�s Consumer Price Index will also be released today, at 8:30 am GMT. Inflation in the UK is close to BOE�s targeted range but the indicator is important nonetheless because it is taken into consideration when the interest rate decision is made. Today�s expected change is 1.8% while last month�s was 1.9% and lower numbers usually weaken the Pound.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR AND POUND PRONE TO SHARP MOVES. MEETING MINUTES HOLD CENTER STAGE

EUR/USD

Forex News: Positive data released yesterday by the American economy allowed the US Dollar to continue to gain ground against its counterparts and yesterday we saw a clear break of support.

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Technical Outlook

The recent break of 1.3330 support is likely a true one but before price can travel south, we need to see a retest of the recently broken level. Adding to this short term bullish view is the oversold condition signaled by the Relative Strength Index on the four hour chart above. If the retest results in a bounce lower, the first target is represented by 1.3295 key level.

Fundamental Outlook

The main event of the day will be the release of FOMC�s Meeting Minutes which will offer insights into the reasons which affected their latest decision regarding the interest rate and will possibly contain hints about future monetary policy direction. The release is scheduled at 6:00 pm GMT and a high impact is anticipated.

GBP/USD

United Kingdom�s Consumer Price Index posted a surprising drop and as a result the Pound weakened substantially against the greenback, taking the pair below support.

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Technical Outlook

Similar to the EUR/USD, we anticipate a bullish retracement before the downside momentum will resume; however, the control clearly belongs to the bears so any moves north should be considered simple pullbacks for the time being. The Relative Strength Index is below 30 again, favoring short term retracements into the first potential resistance located around 1.6660.

Fundamental Outlook

The Bank of England will release today at 8:30 am GMT the details of their latest votes on interest rate and Asset Purchase Facility. If all 9 members voted to keep the rate unchanged, it could mean that an increase will not be seen in the immediate future. If the members� opinions start to diverge, the release will have a higher impact that usual. The FOMC Meeting Minutes will also have a direct impact on the pair�s movement.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[forsib]

FOREX NEWS: THE US DOLLAR CAPITALIZES ON A HAWKISH FED ATTITUDE

EUR/USD

The pair continued to slide lower during the day, before the FOMC Minutes which further strengthened the US Dollar as the Fed showed optimism regarding the job market and inflation.

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Technical Outlook

We saw a new low of the year reached by the pair and for the time being the bears are dominating the market. The key support at 1.3295 was clearly broken and if price returns to it for a retest and successfully bounces lower, we might see a touch of 1.3200 in the near future. Keep in mind that the Relative Strength Index is deep in oversold territory, a fact which favors a touch from below of 1.3295.

Fundamental Outlook

The French Manufacturing PMI is released early at 7:00 am GMT and expected to climb slightly from 47.8 to 47.9. It will be followed half an hour later by the German indicator with the same name, which is expected to drop from the previous 52.4 to 51.7. Both are leading indicators of economic health for two of the most important countries in the Euro Zone and higher numbers are usually beneficial for the Euro.

The Philly Fed Manufacturing survey will be announced at 2:00 pm GMT and a hefty drop is anticipated, from the previous 23.9 to 19.7. The survey is based on the opinions of purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector and usually, its importance is increased if the actual numbers differ a lot from the anticipated ones.

GBP/USD

Bank of England�s Minutes released yesterday showed that 2 out of 9 members voted for a rate increase, a fact which boosted the Pound higher but the hawkish attitude of the FOMC Meeting Minutes allowed the pair to move lower.

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Technical Outlook

The zone around 1.6660 is now confirmed resistance since yesterday we saw clear rejection off that level and the Dollar run might extend into the support located at 1.6550. A lot depends on the Retail Sales numbers and the technical aspect will be somewhat secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom�s Retail Sales numbers come out today at 8:30 am GMT with a positive change expected, from the previous 0.1% to 0.4%. Such an increase will further strengthen the Pound as sales made at a retail level represent the major part of economic activity.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: THE SECOND DAY OF THE JACKSON HOLE SYMPOSIUM BRINGS US TWO IMPORTANT SPEECHES

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday�s trading session was mostly controlled by the bulls although Philadelphia Manufacturing data was better than anticipated, a fact which would normally benefit the US Dollar. However, major levels were not threatened.

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Technical Outlook

The current bullish move is likely to continue until 1.3295 is touched. The next potential turning point is 1.3330 but this move is considered just a retracement to the downtrend which was overextended and in need of a breather. The low at 1.3240 will act as potential support if the downtrend resumes and the next key level is located at 1.3200.

Fundamental Outlook

Today is the second day of the Jackson Hole Symposium and probably the most important one because both Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen and ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver speeches at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Yellen�s speech is scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT while Draghi�s will follow at 6:30 pm GMT; the main topic for both speeches will be the labor market, which is always a delicate subject that can strongly influence the market so caution is recommended.

GBP/USD

The pair ranged for almost the entire day, with a slightly bullish bias despite the fact that Retail Sales dropped during the previous month.

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Technical Outlook

There is still room for the pair to move to the upside as no major resistance is near current price, but on the other hand, 1.6550 support is very close and it will most likely act as a magnet for price. A lot depends on Janet Yellen�s speech, which will probably influence heavily the US Dollar.

Technical Outlook

The United Kingdom didn�t schedule any major news releases for the day and market participants will focus on the two important speeches mentioned above.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: THE POUND EXPERIENCES IRREGULAR VOLATILITY AS UK BANKS ARE CLOSED

EUR/USD

Forex News: During her speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen mentioned improvements in the US labor market and suggested that the economy is healing while ECB President Mario Draghi signaled that the European economy is still not back on track.

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Technical Outlook

The comments of the two bankers generated a sharp drop for the pair, after an almost perfect bounce off of 1.3295 level which was previous support, now turned resistance. The first lower target and support is located at 1.3200 but at the moment the pair is diverging from the Relative Strength Index as we can notice a lower low printed by price and a higher low made by the indicator. This is known as regular divergence and in this case is indicative of a potential bullish retracement. However, two important economic indicators come out today and price movement will be affected by their readings.

Fundamental Outlook

The first release of the day is the German IFO Business Climate, a confidence survey derived from the opinions of about 7,000 businesses. This large sample makes the survey a well respected one and increases its importance. The release is scheduled at 8:00 am GMT and the anticipated number is 107.1, a small decrease from the previous 108.

At 2:00 pm GMT the US New Home Sales numbers come out, with an anticipated change to 426K from the previous 406K. Better than expected numbers usually strengthen the US Dollar as they indicate that consumers are confident in economic conditions and they can afford a house.

GBP/USD

The pair was also affected by Yellen�s comments but not as much as the EUR/USD and overall we had a slow Friday, with mostly ranging price action.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/2014.08.25-The-Pound-experiences-irregular-volatility-as-UK-banks-are-closed-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

We expect the pair to touch the level at 1.6550 today but we don�t anticipate a lot of movement as banks in the United Kingdom will be closed, celebrating Summer Bank Holiday. The first level of interest to the upside is 1.6600 but we might experience irregular volatility and low liquidity, making price action hard to predict.

Fundamental Outlook

As mentioned above, banks in the United Kingdom will be closed and no economic indicators will be released today but the pair will be affected by the US New Home Sales release.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: GERMAN INFLATION AND AMERICAN GDP � CATALYSTS FOR A BREAKOUT

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Euro managed to recover yesterday from an almost one-year low on the back of comments made by German finance minister who said that Mario Draghi�s latest speech was �over-interpreted�. This spurred interest for the single currency and took the pair into 1.3200 resistance.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/2014.08.28-German-inflation-and-American-GDP-catalysts-for-a-breakout-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

Yesterday we saw a bearish break of 1.3200 support zone but developments during the day took price back into the mentioned zone for a retest. After a breakout, a retest of the recently broken level is common and usually, this retest shows if the break is sustainable or if it was just a fake. The bullish divergence is still present and the weekly gap is still not closed, so if price moves above 1.3200, we might see it climb at least until the gap is closed.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Consumer Price Index is released today at 12:00 pm GMT and analysts expect it to remain unchanged at 0.8%. German inflation contributes to overall Euro Zone inflation and lately it has been one of ECB�s major concerns; the Euro would benefit from higher values of the German CPI.

The United States will announce their Preliminary Gross Domestic Product today at 12:30 pm GMT and a minor decrease from 4.0% to 3.9% is expected. Since the GDP is an economy�s main performance gauge, better than expected values have the potential to strengthen the currency.

GBP/USD

The pair failed to break out of the tight range and instead bounced between support and resistance for the entire day as no major news affected either of the two currencies.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/2014.08.28-German-inflation-and-American-GDP-catalysts-for-a-breakout-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

For today, a breakout is a high probability scenario but the direction will probably be determined by the US Gross Domestic Product. Yesterday we saw that price touched 1.6550 support and immediately moved up to test 1.6600 but failed to break this level as well. This shows indecision and the fact that price needs some sort of catalyst which will generate a break of either one of the levels mentioned.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn�t schedule any important news for today thus market participants will focus on the American events which are likely to trigger strong moves.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: IRREGULAR VOLATILITY DUE TO AMERICAN BANK HOLIDAY. POUND AFFECTED BY MANUFACTURING DATA

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday�s main event was the release of the Euro Zone CPI which slowed down from 0.4% to 0.3%, just how analysts anticipated. The drop weakened the Euro and the pair finished the week with the bears in control.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/image0011-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

Now that price surpassed 1.3150, we anticipate a move closer to 1.3100 after a potential retest of the recently broken level. However, the pair has been on an extended move to the south and the Relative Strength Index is oversold on a Daily chart, signaling that bullish pullbacks are a probable scenario. If this is the case, the first major barrier is 1.3200 which has now turned into resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

American banks will be closed today due to Labor Day and no economic indicators are scheduled for release today. As a result, the New York session might suffer from low liquidity and irregular movement. There are no major European releases either, so we may experience slow and ranging price action during the day.

GBP/USD

The Pound had another slow day Friday and no special developments took place. Price remained confined in a tight range and the anticipated breakout didn�t occur.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/image0031-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.6600 and the support at 1.6550 managed to contain price for longer than anticipated and this was mostly due to the lack of major economic releases last week. Today the probability of a breakout is greatly increased but the direction depends mostly on the manufacturing data released by the United Kingdom.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Manufacturing PMI is released. The indicator is a measure of optimism among purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector and also acts as a leading indicator of economic health. The expected value is 55.1 and a higher number is usually beneficial for the Pound.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: PRICE ACTION AFFECTED BY PURCHASING MANAGERS� INDEXES

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Euro climbed yesterday, moving towards 1.3150 but price action lacked momentum as no major economic news came out and the market suffered from low volatility due to the fact that US banks were closed.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/2014.09.02-Price-action-affected-by-Purchasing-Managers-Indexes-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The bears slowed down their momentum but the downtrend is intact and a touch of 1.3150 is expected before we can see more downside movement. If 1.3150 is surpassed, the next resistance is located at 1.3200 but we might experience slow and ranging movement until the ECB meets this week. The first level of interest to the south is 1.3100.

Fundamental Outlook

The main event of the day will be the release of the American Manufacturing PMI scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT. This is a survey of about 400 purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector who are asked to rate economic and business conditions; the anticipated value is 57.0 and higher numbers usually strengthen the greenback as they suggest that optimism among purchasing managers is increasing.

GBP/USD

The Pound strengthened earlier in the day but the disappointing value of the British Manufacturing PMI stopped further bullish advances and erased some of the Pound�s gains.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/2014.09.02-Price-action-affected-by-Purchasing-Managers-Indexes-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The current bullish move can be considered just a retracement in a rather strong downtrend so we expect downside movement and another close encounter with 1.6550 support. The Relative Strength Index is approaching the overbought level for the first time in a long while and bearish divergence is present, a fact which favors another move south. If the pair continues upwards, it will encounter the first resistance at 1.6700.

Fundamental Outlook

AT 8:30 am GMT the British Construction PMI is released and anticipated to drop from last month�s 62.4 to 61.5. Since this is a measure of optimism among purchasing managers from the construction sector, it acts as a leading indicator of economic health and higher than anticipated numbers are beneficial for the Pound. As always, the US events will directly affect the pair as well.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: DOWNTREND RESUMED, MAJOR SUPPORT AHEAD

EUR/USD

Forex News: Speculation that the Fed will raise interest rates sooner than anticipated boosted the US Dollar and allowed it to climb versus its main counterparts. This affected our pair as well, but the impact was not tremendous and major support was not touched.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/2014.09.03-Downtrend-resumed-major-support-ahead-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

If 1.3100 support is touched, we expect bullish pullbacks into 1.3150 � 1.3200 resistance. On a Daily chart the trend has been moving straight down for an extended period and the Relative Strength Index is deep in oversold territory. These factors call for a �breather� in the form of a retracement north but the pair�s direction may be affected by the economic indicators that are released today.

Fundamental Outlook

The European Retail Sales numbers come out at 9:00 am GMT and a negative change is expected from the previous 0.4% to -0.3%. Although Retail Sales are usually a high impact indicator, this release is likely to have a muted impact because Germany and France have already released their consumer spending indicators, but higher than anticipated numbers will most likely add some strength to the Euro.

GBP/USD

The Pound weakened drastically against the US Dollar as a survey showed increased support for Scotland�s independence which will be decided through a referendum later this month. The release of the British Construction PMI was mostly overlooked by market participants.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/2014.09.03-Downtrend-resumed-major-support-ahead-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

Now that 1.6550 is clearly broken, the first support and target for the pair is located at 1.6460. The downtrend is resumed and the ranging period is hopefully over but we might see moves close to 1.6550 before 1.6460 is touched. If such a scenario occurs and 1.6550 will turn into resistance, the chances of a touch of 1.6460 will increase.

Fundamental Outlook

The UK Services PMI is released today at 8:30 am GMT and it�s expected to drop from last month�s 59.1 to 58.6, a fact which would be detrimental for the Pound. The indicator is a measure of optimism among purchasing managers from the British Services sector and also acts as a leading indicator of economic health.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[chopetonk]

FOREX NEWS: INTEREST RATES AND AN EARLY LOOK INTO AMERICAN EMPLOYMENT LEVELS SET THE STAGE FOR A WILD DAY

EUR/USD

Forex News: A cease-fire agreement between Russia and Ukraine strengthened the single currency and triggered a move up. Market participants overlooked the disappointing value of the European Retail Sales and the pair experienced a bullish day.

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Technical Outlook

From a purely technical point of view, a bounce off of the current level at 1.3150 is very likely. If this bounce occurs, the next destination is 1.3100 support, but Mario Draghi�s speech and the ECB interest rate decision will decide the day�s direction and the technical aspect will be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

At 11:45 am GMT the ECB will make public their decision regarding the interest rate which is not expected to change from the current 0.15%. A Press Conference will follow at 12:30 pm GMT and during this conference the highest volatility of the day will probably be seen. There has been a lot of talk about additional measures adopted by the ECB to stimulate economic growth and during the press conference ECB President Mario Draghi will probably answer questions on the matter. His attitude will be closely watched by market participants and will trigger sharp moves.

A privately owned company will release an early version of the US Non Farm Employment Change at 12:15 pm GMT. This data tries to mimic the government issued indicator which is released Friday and usually has a hefty impact on the market. The anticipated number is 216K and higher values usually strengthen the US Dollar but Friday�s indicator normally has a higher impact.

GBP/USD

The pair retraced higher yesterday with the help of a better than expected value of the Services PMI but bears regained control later in the day and a new low was printed.

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Technical Outlook

The pair reached the important support located at 1.6460 but now it shows clear signs of slowing down. We can see multiple candles which suggest indecision and the Relative Strength Index reached oversold territory. This makes it harder for the bears to push the pair further down and increases the chances of bullish retracements but price action will be influenced by the fundamental aspect.

Fundamental Outlook

At 11:00 am GMT the Bank of England will announce the interest rate but no change is expected (currently 0.50%). Because a Statement is issued only in the case of a rate change, today we will probably not have any information about the reasons that stood behind the rate decision and this diminishes the impact of the event. However, surprises can happen and we recommend caution if trading at the time. The US events will have a direct impact on the pair�s movement throughout the day.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[rasahadus]

FOREX NEWS: ECB SURPRISES THE MARKET WITH ANOTHER RATE CUT. FOCUS SHIFTS ON NON FARM PAYROLLS

EUR/USD

Forex News: The ECB unexpectedly decided to cut the interest rate to 0.05% (previously 0.15%) and Mario Draghi announced that a form of Quantitative Easing will be introduced in order to stimulate the economy. He also mentioned that other measures might be implemented if needed.

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Technical Outlook

The surprise offered by the ECB drastically weakened the Euro and the effect was a massive drop of almost 200 pips. The selloff broke 1.3100 and brought the pair into the psychological support at 1.3000, solidifying the control of the bears and renewing the downtrend. Today�s direction will be heavily affected by the US Non Farm Payrolls but strictly from a technical point of view, we expect a small bounce followed by a trend continuation.

Fundamental Outlook

The day�s main event will be the release of the Non Farm Payrolls which is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT; the expected number is 226K, an increase from last month�s 209K. Higher numbers show that more jobs were created and usually this strengthens the greenback because employment is closely correlated with consumer spending which in turn is a major part of the economy. The NFP release is known to be a huge market mover thus caution is recommended if trading at the time.

GBP/USD

The Bank of England left the rate unchanged and the event didn�t have a huge impact on the pair�s movement but US Dollar strength generated a clear break of 1.6460 support.

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Technical Outlook

The downtrend is resumed and 1.6460 is clearly broken. This level will probably turn into resistance and will reject any bullish moves that may come close to it. The first major support is now located at 1.6250 (visible on a Daily chart) and the Relative Strength Index continues to move in oversold territory, a fact which favors moves to the north in the form of small retracements. The day�s direction will be heavily influenced by the American NFP release which will overshadow the technical side.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom doesn�t release major economic indicators today and all eyes will be turned towards the American employment report.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: THE CALM AFTER THE STORM. THE MARKET SLOWS DOWN

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday�s price action was heavily influenced by the worse than expected value posted by the American Non Farm Payrolls, a fact which allowed the pair to climb. However, the Euro bulls weren�t strong enough to sustain the move and some of the gains were erased.

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Technical Outlook

The last two days of last week were heavily influenced by the fundamental environment and the moves generated were huge. Such movement is often followed by sideways price action and we believe the pair will range between the low at 1.2920 and the potential resistance at 1.3000. Usually Mondays are slow days unless major news comes out and today the schedule is pretty light.

Fundamental Outlook

The only noteworthy indicator released today is the German Trade Balance which shows the difference in value between imported and exported goods. The expected figure is 17.3B compared with last month�s 16.2B and higher numbers will most likely strengthen the Euro but the indicator has a mild impact on price action unless surprising values are posted. The time of the release is 6:00 am GMT.

GBP/USD

Similar to the Euro, the Pound briefly gained on the back of the worse than expected value of the US employment report but overall Friday was slow compared to the previous days.

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Technical Outlook

First major support is located at 1.6250 and will probably attract price like a magnet since it is very close and it is considered a key level for medium term price action. The first lower barrier is represented by Friday�s low located at 1.6280 which is considered minor support. We expect a rather slow day based on the fact that no important economic or financial indicators are released.

Fundamental Outlook

As mentioned above, the fundamental scene is calm and price action will be governed by the technical aspect.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: THE POUND DROPS AS SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE BECOMES A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY

EUR/USD

Forex News: The German Trade Balance showed improved numbers but overall the day lacked strong movement and the pair traded inside a 30 pip range for almost the entire duration of the day.

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Technical Outlook

The day ahead is likely to be characterized by ranging movement, similar to the one experienced yesterday. The pair is capped to the downside by the low located at 1.2920 and we might see another attempt to break it but the Relative Strength Index is making its way up, coming from oversold territory and this suggests that price may revisit the zone around 1.3000 as a stronger bullish retracement is still anticipated. However, keep in mind that control belongs to the bears and a break of the low can easily occur.

Fundamental Outlook

The French Trade Balance is announced at 6:45 am GMT. The indicator shows the difference in value between imported and exported goods but it is known to have a mild impact on price action. The expected value is -5.0B while the previous was -5.4B and higher numbers are usually beneficial for the Euro.

GBP/USD

A poll regarding a potential separation of Scotland from the United Kingdom showed that for the first time the number of people who are pro-independence exceeded the number of people who still want to be a part of the United Kingdom.

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Technical Outlook

The poll result triggered a massive downside gap which made the pair open below the key level at 1.6250. A potential separation of Scotland from the United Kingdom will severely damage the Pound and until the 18th of September (the day when Scottish people will express their view through a referendum), we are likely to see irregular and hard to predict price action. For now the first minor support is located at 1.6100 while potential resistance sits in the 1.6250 zone.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will deliver a speech in Liverpool. Considering the latest developments, this speech is likely to have a higher impact than usual but it all depends on his attitude and matters discussed. At the same time the British Manufacturing Production change is announced and the expected value is 0.3%, same as last month. Because Manufacturing is an important part of the entire British Industrial Production, today�s release is considered a high-impact one and higher values will most likely strengthen the Pound.

At 2:00 pm GMT an unofficial estimate of the British Gross Domestic Product is released. This estimated value is calculated using statistical projection techniques and has an impact similar to the one of the official release. The previous estimate was 0.6% and higher numbers will most likely strengthen the Pound.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: BULLISH PRESSURE MOUNTS AS RETRACEMENTS ARE STILL EXPECTED

EUR/USD

Forex News: The economic scene lacked major developments and the pair moved lower just to return higher later in the day. Yesterday�s low was broken before the bullish move and a new yearly low was printed.

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Technical Outlook

Currently the pair is testing the recently broken level of 1.2920 but the downtrend doesn�t show signs of slowing down thus there�s a high probability that price will bounce lower, turning the previous support into resistance. The next major support is located at 1.2750 (better seen on a Daily chart) and the first resistance sits at 1.3000.

Fundamental Outlook

The day ahead has a lackluster news scene for the Euro and US Dollar and price action will be mostly influenced by the technical aspect.

GBP/USD

Mark Carney�s speech was postponed for a few hours yesterday but the bullish effect created by the Governor�s attitude was soon dampened by the sellers� pressure.

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Technical Outlook

The pair moved above and below the level at 1.6100 and the day was pretty volatile but neither side made any major advances. The Relative Strength Index continues to trade deep into oversold territory and the possibility of bullish moves has increased but the Pound cannot seem to recover, mostly due to the Scottish independence issue which continues to be a major influence. Minor support sits at 1.6060 while first resistance is located at 1.6160.

Fundamental Outlook

Bank of England Governor alongside members of the Monetary Policy Committee will testify on economic outlook and inflation today at 1:45 pm GMT, before the Parliament�s Treasury Committee. Their speeches will most likely have a strong impact on the Pound but the direction will be determined by their answers and attitude. Volatility will probably be high and caution is recommended.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: SHORT TERM RESISTANCE HOLDS. THE PROBABILITY OF NEW LOWS INCREASES

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair showed mixed price action with both the bulls and the bears battling for control. No major indicators were released and price couldn�t break minor resistance but the sellers didn�t manage to threaten support either.

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Technical Outlook

Price action established the zone around 1.2960 as short term resistance and this will be the first barrier in front of higher prices. Yesterday we saw another rejection off of this level but further bullish movement is not out of the question and a break of the mentioned level will most likely bring in additional buyers. To the downside, the first level of interest sits at 1.2860 and a break would show that bears still have some steam left and that price will continue to move south, towards 1.2750.

Fundamental Outlook

The day�s direction will be influenced by Mario Draghi�s speech scheduled at 7:00 pm GMT. The ECB President will speak in Milan at the Eurofi Financial Forum 2014 and any reference regarding the current Euro Zone situation will most likely trigger a response in the market. Keep in mind that the relatively late hour of the speech may be a reason why impact could be mild; however, if Draghi�s position will be straightforward, the market impact will be strong so we recommend caution.

GBP/USD

After a touch of support, the pair headed north yesterday on the back of a hawkish attitude shown by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney during the Inflation Report Hearings.

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Technical Outlook

Although we had some bullish action yesterday, the pair didn�t manage to break the short term resistance located at 1.6160. This might be a sign that downside movement is next, aiming for 1.6060 support, but we must note the position of the Relative Strength Index which is now coming out of oversold territory for the first time in a long period, a fact which favors the bulls. However, bearish price action is anticipated, considering the strong downtrend the pair is in.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn�t schedule important news releases for the day so price direction will be influenced by the technical factors.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

Forex News: Today�s headline � the American Retail Sales

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Euro had a bullish day yesterday but price remained between support and resistance for almost the entire duration of the trading session.

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Technical Outlook

Today we expect a break of either the resistance at 1.2960 or the support at 1.2860 but the direction will be mainly influenced by the outcome of the American Retail Sales which will have a strong impact on the greenback. Major support sits at 1.2750 and we expect this level to be touched in the near future but not necessarily today.

Fundamental Outlook

As mentioned above, the American Retail Sales are released today and the outcome could influence the US Dollar heavily. The scheduled time is 12:30 pm GMT and the expected change is 0.3%, better than last month�s 0.0%. Sales made at a retail level represent the major part of the economy and the release is considered a major market mover; at the same time, the Core version of this indicator (which excludes automobiles from calculation) is released. For both versions, higher values normally strengthen the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The Pound continues to be heavily influenced by speculation regarding Scottish independence and yesterday we saw bullish movement on the back of a new poll which showed that more people wish that Scotland remains a part of the United Kingdom.

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Technical Outlook

Lately the technical aspect was overshadowed by the Scottish independence issue and this is likely to be a reason for speculation until the referendum result will be posted next week. For the time being, we can see some sort of rejection off of the resistance at 1.6750 and bearish divergence is present, so we anticipate a move lower which will probably find support at 1.6160 but a break of the current level could generate additional movement north.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no major news releases for the Pound today, thus price direction will be influenced by the US events and the technical aspect.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: DOWNTREND REMAINS INTACT AS RESISTANCE STILL HOLDS

EUR/USD

Forex News:The US Retail Sales didn�t have a major impact on the US Dollar although better than expected values were posted. Friday was mostly controlled by the Euro bulls but short term resistance couldn�t be broken.

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Technical Outlook

Lately the level at 1.2960 is becoming more important because we already saw three failed attempts to break it. Last week ended with price very close to the mentioned level and today we expect a move away from it, possibly to the downside since we are still in a clear downtrend and the bears still have underlying strength. The year�s low at 1.2860 will be the first target but we don�t expect it to be reached within a day; on the other hand, a clear bullish break of 1.2960 will invalidate our scenario, making 1.3000 the pair�s next destination.

Fundamental Outlook

The scene is pretty calm today, with the only notable indicator being the US Industrial Production released at 1:15 pm GMT. The indicator shows the change in the value of total industrial output compared with the previous month but for today�s release no change is anticipated from the previous 0.4%. Usually, higher than expected values are beneficial for the greenback and push the pair lower.

GBP/USD

Friday the pair moved in a narrow range close to the level at 1.6250 and no substantial advances were made by either side as the American Retail Sales failed to trigger strong moves.

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Technical Outlook

Price action reached a 50 period Exponential Moving Average which combined with the level at 1.6250 creates a confluent resistance zone that will be tough to break. This increases the chances of bearish price action for the day but a move above the confluence zone will probably trigger additional bullish momentum. First support sits at 1.6160 but a touch of this level is less probable to happen today even if price will resume downwards movement.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn�t schedule any important news releases for today and price action will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect and by the American release mentioned earlier.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: GERMAN ZEW AND BRITISH INFLATION NUMBERS DRIVE PRICE ACTION

EUR/USD

Forex News: During the first part of yesterday�s trading session, the pair begun to move south but later on, a disappointing reading of the American Industrial Production weakened the US Dollar and allowed the Euro to push higher.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/2014.09.16-German-ZEW-and-British-inflation-numbers-drive-price-action-pic-1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The resistance situated at 1.2960 managed to reject price once more and to stop bullish momentum. As long as the pair remains below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below resistance, the downtrend is intact and there are high chances of more downside movement, with the first important target being located at 1.2860.

Fundamental Outlook

An important German survey is released today at 9:00 am GMT: the ZEW Economic Sentiment. The importance of this survey comes from the fact that it is based on the opinions of German institutional investors and analysts who are well informed on the economic situation due to the nature of their jobs. The expected value is 5.2 and better than expected numbers will benefit the Euro.

At 12:30 pm GMT the American Producer Price Index is released and expected to remain unchanged at 0.1%. The indicator shows the change in prices charged by producers for their goods and services and usually, higher values strengthen the greenback.

GBP/USD

For almost the entire day the pair moved above and below the level at 1.6250, without any substantial developments. The US release went almost unnoticed and overall we had a ranging day.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/2014.09.16-German-ZEW-and-British-inflation-numbers-drive-price-action-pic-2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

We expect a day with stronger movement today and potential downtrend resumption if the bulls cannot break the confluence zone created by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the resistance at 1.6250. The first minor support is located at 1.6160 but today�s direction will be influenced by the fundamentals.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Consumer Price Index is released today at 8:30 am GMT and another small drop is expected, from the previous 1.6% to 1.5%. Although British inflation is not really a matter of concern at the moment because it stayed in an acceptable range, lower numbers are perceived as bearish and might drive the pair south.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: FOMC CLUSTER OF EVENTS SETS THE STAGE FOR STRONG MOVEMENT

EUR/USD

Forex News: The German ZEW survey showed that optimism among professional investors and analysts increased but the value was still lower than the previous month and price ranged for the most part of the day.
2014.09.17 FOMC cluster of events sets the stage for strong

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/2014.09.17-FOMC-cluster-of-events-sets-the-stage-for-strong-movement-pic11-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The pair is still trading very close the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below resistance so the downtrend remains intact for the time being. However, the bearish momentum slowed down considerably and moves to the upside are possible but the day�s direction will be influenced by the afternoon US events and the technical side will be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the US Consumer Price Index is released but no change is expected from last month�s 0.1%; however, higher values can benefit the US Dollar and take the pair lower. At 6:00 pm GMT a cluster of American events will most likely shake the market: the US Federal Funds Rate, the FOMC Rate Statement and Economic Projections, followed half an hour later by a FOMC Press Conference. Caution is recommended during these events as direction will depend on their outcome.

GBP/USD

The British CPI declined as analysts predicted, weakening the Pound, but later during yesterday�s trading session the US Dollar declined and the Pound erased all losses, managing even to climb higher than the opening of the day.
2014.09.17 FOMC cluster of events sets the stage for strong

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/2014.09.17-FOMC-cluster-of-events-sets-the-stage-for-strong-movement-pic21-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

Yesterday�s climb was mostly based on US Dollar weakness rather than Pound strength and the major resistance at 1.6250 is still not broken decisively so the picture remains fuzzy until we see a clear move above resistance, followed by a re-test of the broken level. Keep in mind that yesterday the pair almost touched 1.6160 support and immediately bounced higher, a fact which shows bull strength. Just like in the case of the Euro, today�s price direction will be heavily influenced by the fundamental side.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom�s Claimant Count Change is released today at 8:30 am GMT. The indicator shows the change in the number of jobless people who apply for social help related to their unemployed condition and lower numbers than the anticipated -29.7K are usually beneficial for the Pound. At the same time a breakdown of the latest MPC votes on the interest rate will be released, showing the members� position regarding a future rate change. Of course, the US events mentioned earlier will have a direct and probably strong impact on the pair.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

Forex News: Scottish Independence Vote � An event with historical implications

Posted → Technical News

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar strengthened yesterday on the back of Yellen�s hawkish comments as she noted that economy is continuing to make progress towards goals but the FOMC outlook didn�t offer too many surprises and movement was far from smooth on the lower time frames.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/2014.09.18-Scottish-Independence-Vote-An-event-with-historical-implications-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

It seems like the bears are gathering strength for another push towards the support at 1.2860. Although 1.2960 was briefly broken and 1.3000 was almost touched, the bulls couldn�t sustain the move and this shows their lack of power, thus increasing the chances of more downside movement. The day ahead is full of market-shaking events and a prediction based solely on technical factors cannot be very accurate.

Fundamental Outlook

The European Central Bank will announce today the Targeted LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Option) which is the amount of money the Central Bank will create and loan to European banks. This is the first month of the program and the effects are hard to anticipate since market participants still don�t know exactly what is too much or too little, thus we recommend caution for this release. The scheduled time is 10:15 am GMT.

At 12:45 pm GMT Fed Chair Janet Yellen will deliver a speech at a Conference in Washington DC but the effects are likely to be mild considering that she will speak via satellite and audience questions are not expected. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is announced at 2:00 pm GMT and is expected to drop from the previous 28.0 to 22.8, a fact which would weaken the US Dollar and drive the pair higher.

GBP/USD

Better than expected unemployment data helped the Pound climb during the first part of yesterday but the US events brought the pair back down, erasing the previous gains.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/2014.09.18-Scottish-Independence-Vote-An-event-with-historical-implications-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

After yesterday�s initial climb above 1.6250 and above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the pair returned to the broken zone and this type of price action can have two outcomes. A move below the mentioned zone would suggest downtrend continuation and possibly a touch of 1.6160 support, while a bounce higher means that the strength of the bears is starting to fade and the Pound is ready to recover.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the Scottish people will express their opinion regarding Scottish Independence through a vote. Irregular movement is anticipated throughout the day because a potential separation of Scotland from the United Kingdom would have tremendous historical implications and would drastically weaken the Pound. It is uncertain when the vote results will come out and a high level of caution is recommended.

The British Retail Sales come out at 8:30 am GMT and are expected to increase by 0.4% while last month�s change was 0.1%. This would strengthen the Pound but the market will be affected by the Scottish vote which may overshadow any other events.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

Forex News: Bulls make their presence known by threatening resistance
Posted → Technical News

EUR/USD

Forex News: After an unsuccessful attempt to break support, the pair bounced higher and continued to move in this direction for the entire day. The LTRO value was set at 82.6 Billion Euros but the time of the release was changed, taking traders by surprise.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/2014.09.19-Bulls-make-their-presence-known-by-threatening-resistance-pic1.png

Technical Outlook

The support zone around 1.2860 was pierced yesterday but price bounced higher soon after; however, the pair is still trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and we saw a new low yesterday so the current bullish move must be considered just a simple retracement in a downtrend. A break above the 50 EMA and above 1.2960 would weaken the downtrend and open the door for a stronger move to the upside.

Fundamental Outlook

The day ahead lacks any notable economic or financial releases and we expect price action to be driven by technical factors.

GBP/USD

At the time of writing, the official results regarding the Scotland�s Independence Vote were not released but polls and surveys showed that Scottish people favored a �No� vote and probably the United Kingdom will remain with its current structure.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/2014.09.19-Bulls-make-their-presence-known-by-threatening-resistance-pic2.png

Technical Outlook

After the initial break of 1.6250, price re-tested the level from above and bounced higher on optimism that Scotland will remain a part of the United Kingdom. This bullish movement is likely to continue until 1.6460 is reached but if this occurs, we expect some sort of bearish reaction as probably the Relative Strength Index will enter oversold territory and the sellers still have underlying strength.

Fundamental Outlook

After a week filled with important events, the fundamental scene calms down a bit as no major events are scheduled for release.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

Sorry ndan do post

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: ECB PRESIDENT TESTIFIES � VOLATILITY ALMOST GUARANTEED
Posted → Technical News

EUR/USD

Forex News: For almost the entire duration of Friday�s trading session the US Dollar gained and the pair moved south, ending the week below support. No major news came out but Euro weakness combined with Dollar strength triggered a 100 pip drop.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/2014.09.22-ECB-President-testifies-volatility-almost-guaranteed-pic1-1024x481.png

Technical Outlook

The bears took back control of the pair and drove price all the way down to 1.2860. The level was broken Friday but we are likely to see moves above it today, with the first resistance being represented by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. To the downside, support is located at 1.2750 but we don�t expect this level to be touched today.

Fundamental Outlook

At 1:00 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will testify on monetary policy and this will be the day�s main event. He will speak in Brussels, before the European Parliament�s Economic and Monetary Committee and his attitude will be closely watched by traders around the world; high volatility is expected and caution is recommended.

GBP/USD

Similar to the Euro, the Pound gave back some of the previous gains and dropped for more than 200 pips Friday after climbing against the Dollar on the back of the Scottish referendum vote.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/2014.09.22-ECB-President-testifies-volatility-almost-guaranteed-pic2-1024x481.png

Technical Outlook

The bears� underlying strength was made clear Friday and the break of 1.6460 resistance couldn�t be sustained by the buyers, a fact which indicates that more downside movement will follow. The first barrier in front of the sellers is located at 1.6250 support and today we are likely to see a touch of this level. However, we don�t expect a break or any other major developments as the day lacks British economic and financial releases.

Fundamental Outlook

The US Existing Home Sales are released at 2:00 pm GMT with an expected value of 5.21M. Higher numbers suggest a thriving economy and can add to the strength of the US Dollar. As already mentioned, the United Kingdom didn�t schedule any news releases today thus price action will be driven by the American events and by technical factors.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: BEARS RENEW THE DOWNTREND AND THREATEN KEY SUPPORT
Posted → Technical News

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair tumbled during the first part of yesterday without any apparent reason other than the technical aspect and later in the day, the surprisingly better value of the US New Home Sales added more steam to the US Dollar, renewing the downtrend.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/2014.09.25-Bears-renew-the-downtrend-and-threaten-key-support-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The pair found resistance at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and quickly moved below 1.2860. More sellers joined once the US housing data was released and now the pair is most likely headed for the key support at 1.2750. Once this level is reached we are likely to see a retracement in the form of a move north or at least some ranging price action.

Fundamental Outlook

The day�s main event is the release of the American Durable Goods Orders scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. These types of goods (with a life expectancy or at least 3 years) are usually purchased in times of economic expansion and an increased value suggests that people are confident in the overall economic situation. It also means that producers will have to increase their activity to satisfy demand. The expected change is -17.7%, a huge drop from the previous 22.6%; such a drastic value would most likely weaken the greenback.

GBP/USD

The bears made their presence known yesterday and managed to take the pair lower, a behavior mostly attributed to the better than expected value of the US New Home Sales.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/2014.09.25-Bears-renew-the-downtrend-and-threaten-key-support-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

Price came very close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average which is the first barrier for the bears before 1.6250 can be reached. If the pair will move below this short term dynamic support, we are likely to see an extended move lower; otherwise the bulls will take price into the resistance located at 1.6460.

Fundamental Outlook

At 10:00 am GMT the Confederation of British Industry will announce the Realized Sales survey which is based on opinions of wholesalers and retailers regarding the current level of sales volume. The anticipated value is 34, a drop from last month�s 37 and we may see Pound weakness if this forecast comes true; however, the indicator usually has a medium impact.
Later in the day, at 12:40 pm GMT, BOE Governor Mark Carney will speak at a Conference in Wales. Huge moves are not expected but the chances of sudden, strong moves increase whenever a head of a Central Bank speaks so caution is recommended.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: AMERICAN GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT � THE LAST RELEASE OF A VOLATILE WEEK
Posted → Technical News

EUR/USD

Forex News: The bears scored a major victory and broke key support yesterday on the back of US Dollar strength generated by a positive forecast made by Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and Corp. and Morgan Stanley based on speculation of a near-future rate increase.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/2014.09.26-American-Gross-Domestic-Product-the-last-release-of-a-volatile-week-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The break of 1.2750 is indeed an important development which will probably bring in more sellers but for the time being, the pair is likely to show some sideways movement or even small retracements to the upside. For today we expect price to remain rather close to 1.2750, moving above and below it, with the first downside barrier being yesterday�s low at 1.2696.

Fundamental Outlook

The day�s main event is the release of the Final version of the American Gross Domestic Product, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. The expected change is 4.6% compared with the previous 4.2% and although this version has the lowest impact out of the three (Advance, Preliminary and Final), strong movement might occur if the value will surprise in any way.

GBP/USD

US Dollar strength took the pair slightly lower but our predicted target at 1.6250 was not touched and throughout the day price action was mixed and mostly ranging.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/2014.09.26-American-Gross-Domestic-Product-the-last-release-of-a-volatile-week-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The pair moved below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and 1.6250 support is very close to current price. This makes us still believe that 1.6250 will be touched today or in the near future; if the bulls can take the pair higher, this level is a place where they could show their willingness. A break of the level mentioned above would suggest that lower prices will follow and the next support will be located at 1.6160.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the United Kingdom didn�t schedule any important news announcements and price action will be influenced by the American GDP and by technical factors.
We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: GERMAN INFLATION DETERMINES TODAY�S BIAS
Posted → Technical News

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the bears were in control for the entire day and managed to break minor support by taking the pair to new lows. The Final version of the American GDP came out with the anticipated value which was better than the previous, a fact which contributed to US Dollar strength.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/2014.09.29-German-inflation-determines-todays-bias-pic1-1024x481.png

Technical Outlook

Although the downtrend is at full strength, the Relative Strength Index is in oversold territory on hourly, four-hour and daily charts, a thing which makes a bullish pullback very probable. The zone around 1.2695 will probably act as resistance while support is located at 1.2660 and today�s direction will be mainly influenced by German inflation data.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:00 pm GMT the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index will be released; this is the main inflation gauge for the German economy and has a hefty influence on European inflation. Today�s expected change is -0.1%, lower than last month�s 0.0% and this negative change will probably weaken the Euro.

GBP/USD

After a brief bullish move which found resistance at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the pair dropped for the rest of the day and the bears finished last week in control.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/2014.09.29-German-inflation-determines-todays-bias-pic2-1024x481.png

Technical Outlook

Our predicted target at 1.6250 was reached and now a bounce-or-break scenario is in effect (for the time being 1.6250 is not considered clearly broken). A break of the level would make 1.6160 the next destination while a bounce higher will probably find resistance at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The Relative Strength Index has reached the 30 level on an hourly chart but on a four hour chart it still has room to move down so we cannot consider this a clear oversold condition.

Fundamental Outlook

The Bank of England will reveal the value of the Net Lending to Individuals today at 8:30 am GMT; the indicator shows the change in value of credit approved towards consumers and usually higher values suggest optimism. Today�s expected value is 3.1B, a drop from last month�s 3.4B.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: UNDERLYING US DOLLAR STRENGTH DRIVES PRICE LOWER

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Euro bulls managed to take the pair higher yesterday on the back of better than expected German inflation. Support was briefly touched but no serious attempts to break it were made.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/2014.09.30-Underlying-US-Dollar-strength-drives-price-lower-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.2660 sits in front of the pair�s descent but the US Dollar continues to have respectable strength and we believe that a break of the mentioned level will occur in the near future. The downtrend is intact and going strong so yesterday�s bullish move must be regarded as a simple retracement or pullback against the trend.

Fundamental Outlook

Euro Zone�s CPI Flash Estimate is today�s main event for the Euro; this indicator is the main gauge of inflation and as we know, inflation is a major concern of the ECB�s because the current level is considered too low. The time of release is 09:00 am GMT and the expected value is 0.3%, a drop from last month�s 0.4%, a fact which will affect negatively the Euro if it comes true.

At 2:00 pm GMT the US Consumer Confidence survey is released. The forecast is 92.2, a slight decrease from last month�s 92.4. Since confidence among consumers is closely correlated with consumer spending, a higher number for today�s release will most likely generate more Dollar strength.

GBP/USD

The Net Lending to Individuals was close to the anticipated value and the release didn�t create a lot of movement. For the entire day the pair remained below 1.6250 and movement was ranging.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/2014.09.30-Underlying-US-Dollar-strength-drives-price-lower-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

Although the bears weren�t very convincing yesterday and the pair mostly ranged near 1.6250, we anticipate a more serious descent today. The US Dollar is surrounded by a positive sentiment lately, gaining against almost all of its counterparts and from a technical point of view, 1.6250 combined with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average creates a confluence zone which acts as resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom�s Current Account is announced today at 08:30 am GMT and it�s anticipated to change from the previous -18.5B to -16.9B. The indicator represents the difference between imported and exported goods and higher values suggest that currency demand is increasing. Price action today will be influenced by the American Consumer Confidence as well.



Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: NEW LOWS REACHED. THE PROBABILITY OF RETRACEMENTS HAS INCREASED
Posted → Technical News

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Euro was negatively affected yesterday by inflation that continues to decline and this fact, coupled with underlying US Dollar strength, generated another strong move south.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/2014.10.01-New-lows-reached.-The-probability-of-retracements-has-increased-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.2660 was broken decisively yesterday and the Euro is heading for a 2 year low against the Dollar. It is clear that bears are in control of the pair but a bullish pullback against the main trend is expected, considering the fact that the downtrend is overextended and the Relative Strength Index is trading in oversold territory on more than one time frame. The first support is located at 1.2570 (yesterday�s low), while potential resistance sits at 1.2660.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 12:15 pm GMT, Automatic Data Processing will release their version of the US Non Farm Employment Change which is anticipated to remain almost unchanged (206K) from last month�s 204K. This privately owned company releases an early employment report which tries to mimic the Government data which will be announced Friday and the impact differs from month to month but higher numbers are considered beneficial for the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

United Kingdom�s Current Account posted a disappointing value, weakening the Pound and driving the pair lower, in close vicinity of support.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/2014.10.01-New-lows-reached.-The-probability-of-retracements-has-increased-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

Price is capped to the upside by the resistance at 1.6250 while to the downside support sits at 1.6160. The pair�s last encounter with this support generated a strong bullish move and the same is possible now, but a lot depends on the British Manufacturing data and American Employment. The Relative Strength Index doesn�t show an extreme reading but the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is angled downwards, increasing the chances of another push lower.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom�s Manufacturing PMI is released today at 8:30 am GMT but the anticipated change is very small: 52.6 from last month�s 52.5. This is a survey based on the opinions of purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector and acts as a leading indicator of economic health, thus higher numbers lead to a stronger Pound.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: THE MARKET PREPARES FOR THE ECB PRESS CONFERENCE
Posted →Technical News

EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday�s price action was difficult to trade as the ADP Employment data posted better than expected values, causing the US Dollar to strengthen but later in the day it was weakened by a worse than expected value of a Manufacturing survey.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/2014.10.02-The-market-prepares-for-the-ECB-Press-Conference-pic1-1024x479.png ('http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/2014.10.02-The-market-prepares-for-the-ECB-Press-Conference-pic1.png')

Technical Outlook

Price moved up and down yesterday without clear direction but we can notice the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is still providing good resistance on an hourly chart. It seems like bearish momentum is starting to fade away or at least to decrease in intensity but this can be easily changed by today�s ECB decision regarding the interest rate. The main levels to watch are 1.2660 as resistance and 1.2570 as support but the technical aspect will be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

At 11:45 am GMT the European Central Bank will announce the Interest Rate which is not expected to change from the current value of 0.05% but we saw before that surprises can happen so we recommend caution at the time of the release and during the Press Conference which follows 45 minutes later. During the Conference, President Mario Draghi will read a prepared speech and afterwards will answer journalists� questions. This second part of the Press Conference is known to generate strong volatility and often irregular movement, depending on the President�s answers and attitude.

GBP/USD

The British Manufacturing data disappointed and the Pound weakened as a result but later in the day price climbed to touch resistance.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/2014.10.02-The-market-prepares-for-the-ECB-Press-Conference-pic2-1024x479.png ('http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/2014.10.02-The-market-prepares-for-the-ECB-Press-Conference-pic2.png')

Technical Outlook

The touch of 1.6250 resistance resulted in a bounce lower and overall we had a day which was tough to trade on the lower time frames. The important levels for today still remain 1.6160 as support (which was touched yesterday but price couldn�t break it) and 1.6250 as resistance (which combined with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average creates a confluence zone).

Fundamental Outlook

The British Construction PMI will be released today at 8:30 am GMT with an expected decrease from last month�s 64.0 to 63.7. This is a survey based on the opinions of about 170 purchasing managers from the Construction sector, regarding the current business conditions and acts as a leading indicator of economic health, thus a higher value is usually beneficial for the Pound.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: AMERICAN NON FARM PAYROLLS SET THE STAGE FOR A VOLATILE FRIDAY
Posted → Technical News

EUR/USD

Forex News: The ECB Press Conference and Mario Draghi�s attitude generated mixed reactions and a lot of whipsaws. The interest rate remained unchanged and for the time being resistance is holding.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/2014.10.03-American-Non-Farm-Payrolls-set-the-stage-for-a-volatile-Friday-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The irregular movement generated by Mario Draghi�s speech took price above 1.2660 resistance but soon after, the Euro weakened and the pair returned below the mentioned level. If the bears will take back control, this is a good place to do so and the first target will be 1.2570. Important US Employment data is released today and this will strongly affect the Dollar, making the technical aspect secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the most important American jobs related indicator is released: the Non Farm Employment Change (also known as Non Farm Payrolls). The report tracks changes in the number of employed people and higher numbers suggest a thriving economy; an increase is also indicative of future growth in the retail sales sector. Today�s release is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and the expected number is 216K, a hefty rise from last month�s 142K.

GBP/USD

Although British Construction data posted a better value than expected, US Dollar strength took the pair lower for almost the entire day and short term support was broken yesterday.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/2014.10.03-American-Non-Farm-Payrolls-set-the-stage-for-a-volatile-Friday-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The current move is likely to extend into the zone surrounding 1.6060 now that previous support was broken and may turn into resistance (1.6160). The pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below resistance, without being oversold so we are likely to see lower prices especially if the American NFP will show a good reading.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Services PMI is released today at 8:30 am GMT and the forecast is 59.1, a drop from last month�s 60.5. If the forecast comes true or lower numbers are posted, the Pound will be negatively affected and the pair may descend further.
We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: SCARCE ECONOMIC DATA SLOWS DOWN PRICE ACTION
Posted → Technical News

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday we saw tremendous US Dollar strength generated by a better than expected value of the Non Farm Payrolls: forecast 216K; actual 248K. The US economy is continuing to post good numbers and this fuels speculation the Fed will increase interest rates before its counterparts.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/image0011-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The downtrend is very strong and the Dollar is surrounded by an overall positive sentiment, thus we expect to see the pair go even lower in the near future. The first barrier and possible target is located at 1.2440 but before it can be reached, we are likely to see price visit 1.2570 once again. Today we expect slow movement as no major indicators are released.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable indicator released today is the German Factory Orders. The scheduled time is 6:00 am GMT and the expected value is -2.4%, a drop from last month’s 4.6%. Higher values suggest increased economic activity and have the potential to strengthen the Euro but the indicator usually has a low-to-medium impact.

GBP/USD

The US Dollar strengthened across the board Friday and this was felt by the Pound as well. The pair dropped to break support and the downtrend resumed, creating a new low.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/image0031-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

Lately the Dollar breaks support levels with ease and the downtrend is going strong, with the next target being 1.5900. The Relative Strength Index is traveling in oversold territory and pullbacks against the main trend are likely to happen before the next support is reached. Potential resistance is located at 1.6060 but today we anticipate a slow day based on the fact that no economic indicators are released.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major indicator releases for the day, thus the technical aspect will influence price direction.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: FOCUS SHIFTS TOWARDS THE POUND FOR MANUFACTURING DATA RELEASE
Posted → Technical News

EUR/USD

Forex News: Overall the Euro had a bullish day although the German Factory Orders came out with a disappointing value. Price action was mainly affected by the technical aspect and the bears still have a lot of underlying strength.

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Technical Outlook

The oversold condition indicated by the Relative Strength Index materialized in a bullish pullback against the main trend. However, we consider this just normal market behavior as the downtrend is intact and further descent is likely to occur during the days to come. The current level at 1.2570 may become resistance if we see a bounce lower and the first support is located at 1.2440.

Fundamental Outlook

Today Europe and the United States didn�t schedule any major economic releases thus price direction will be influenced mainly by the technical aspect.

GBP/USD

The pair had a slow day, a fact also generated by the lackluster fundamental scene. Neither support nor resistance was threatened but price retraced slightly higher.

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Technical Outlook

Price action was slow but bullish nonetheless and this is a fact which we expect to change today and price to make another attempt to reach the important support located at 1.5900. It�s possible to see a touch of 1.6060 before price will make a run for support, considering the position of the Relative Strength Index which is coming out of oversold territory.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing Production is released at 8:30 am GMT with an expected change of 0.2% compared with last month�s 0.3%. Considering that manufacturing is an important part of United Kingdom�s economy, higher values can lead to a stronger Pound.

At 2:00 pm GMT an estimate of the British Gross Domestic Product is released. Last month�s value was 0.6% and anything above that will most likely strengthen the Pound.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: FOMC MEETING MINUTES MAY SPUR SPECULATION ABOUT A RATE HIKE
Posted → Technical News

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair moved above short term resistance, mostly because a stronger retracement was needed taking into consideration the tremendous drop seen throughout last months. A report regarding German Industrial Production showed disappointing figures, slowing the pair�s ascension.

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Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.2660 was touched several times yesterday but the bulls lacked the strength to break it, a fact which shows the underlying strength of the bears and makes us believe that price will resume downwards motion if today resistance is not broken. The first support is located at 1.2580 while the next resistance (if 1.2660 is broken) sits at 1.2750.

Fundamental Outlook

Europe doesn�t didn�t schedule any important news releases but the US Dollar will he highly affected by the FOMC Meeting Minutes which are made public at 6:00 pm GMT. The document will contain insights into the reasons which influenced the members� votes regarding monetary policy and interest rate but more importantly, it may contain hints about a future rate increase. Such hints would fuel speculation about the US Dollar�s next direction and would influence the pair�s movement in a spectacular fashion.

GBP/USD

Similar to the Euro, the Pound slowly climbed above short term resistance. British Manufacturing Production disappointed but we attribute yesterday�s movement to trend exhaustion and to technical factors, not to fundamentals.

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Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.6060 was broken but now an important confluence zone sits in front of rising prices. This zone is represented by the level at 1.6160 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average; a move above both these types of resistance would show that bulls may be preparing to reverse the downtrend. The US Dollar and consequently the pair will be heavily influenced by the FOMC Meeting Minutes.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn�t schedule major economic or financial indicators for today and we expect mixed movement ahead of the FOMC release.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: RESISTANCE THREATENED. WHAT IS THE ANSWER OF THE BEARS?
Posted → Technical News

EUR/USD

Forex News: Trading was pretty slow ahead of the FOMC Meeting Minutes but the Dollar weakened considerably once the Minutes showed the Fed sees global economic slowdown as a threat to the US economic recovery.

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Technical Outlook

The pair quickly climbed at the time of the FOMC release and 1.2750 resistance was reached. Now price is trading above the 50 Period Exponential Moving Average for the first time in a long while but this important level acts as a strong barrier. A break of 1.2750 would deal a big blow to the downtrend and we might see an extended move north. If price will have trouble breaking the level, the next destination is 1.2660 and the 50 period EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

The G20 Meetings start today and ECB President Mario Draghi will speak at 3:00 pm GMT in Washington DC. The main subject of the speech will be the latest European developments and, as always, volatility is expected and caution recommended because the Euro can be strongly affected by Draghi�s attitude.

GBP/USD

Similar to the Euro, the Pound couldn�t break resistance before the FOMC release but Dollar weakness allowed the pair to move swiftly up and to break resistance.

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Technical Outlook

Currently the pair is trying to move above 1.6160 after breaking 1.6060 in a decisive manner. The market perceived the Meeting Minutes as very bearish for the greenback so we might see more upwards movement today but overall we are still trading in a market with a strong Dollar. Bearish activity is not out of the question although the momentum is in favor of the bulls and we consider a move below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average a sign of underlying US Dollar strength which may lead to a touch of 1.6060.

Fundamental Outlook

At 11:00 am GMT the Bank of England will announce the Interest Rate decision. The current value is 0.50% and an increase would add massive strength to the Pound; however, such an increase would be a tremendous surprise considering the fact that Bank of England didn�t offer any hints so far about a rate hike.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: CORRECTION OVER. DOWNTREND RESUMPTION AHEAD
Posted → Technical News

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Euro bulls managed to take price higher during the early stages of yesterday but the climb couldn�t be sustained and price returned below resistance. Mario Draghi�s dovish attitude and comments weakened the Euro further and added more fuel to the downside.

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Technical Outlook

The move that started at 1.2500 is considered a bullish correction to the main downtrend and it looks like it may have ended. The Relative Strength Index reached overbought territory in a strong downtrend and bulls failed to keep price above 1.2750; these factors combined with the prevailing downtrend make us believe that today we will see a break of 1.2660 which is first potential support. If this occurs, the next level of interest is located at 1.2580.

Fundamental Outlook

At 6:45 am GMT the French Industrial Production change is released and a drop from last month�s 0.2% to -0.2% is expected. The indicator usually has low or medium impact on the Euro but nonetheless, better numbers can strengthen the Euro.

GBP/USD

As forecast, the Bank of England didn�t change the Interest Rate and the event went almost unnoticed by market participants. The bears dragged the pair lower yesterday after the bulls failed to touch major resistance.

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Technical Outlook

Price is very close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but if a clear break occurs the next target will become 1.6060 support. A new move above 1.6160 would suggest that bulls have enough strength to take price into the major level at 1.6250; however the Relative Strength Index was close to overbought before yesterday�s drop and this increases the chances of a bigger move to the downside.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom�s Trade Balance is released today at 8:30 am GMT and the forecast is -9.6B. Since this indicator represents the difference between imports and exports, higher values are beneficial for the Pound.
We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: US BANKS ARE CLOSED. IRREGULAR VOLATILITY EXPECTED
Posted → Technical News

EUR/USD

Forex News: For almost the entire duration of Friday�s trading session the pair moved south, resuming the direction of the main trend. No major events took place and price direction was mainly influenced by technical factors.

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Technical Outlook

The pair moved below its 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below the level at 1.2660, showing the underlying strength of the bears. We expect downside movement to continue today until 1.2580 is reached but price action might be slow due to the fact that US banks will be closed today. To the upside, 1.2660 will act as resistance if touched.

Fundamental Outlook

The United States celebrate Columbus Day and US Banks will be closed as a result. This may lead lo low volume and potentially irregular volatility. Europe didn�t schedule any important releases and overall we anticipate a slow day.

GBP/USD

Although Friday the US Dollar took the pair below short term support, later in the day the Pound managed to erase some of the losses and the day finished above support.

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Technical Outlook

Price is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but the support at 1.6060 couldn�t be broken and we can even see a four-hour candle with a long lower wick, a fact which shows rejection and suggests that today price may move higher. If this occurs, the moving average will be the first target and also the first point where the bulls may encounter resistance. A clean break of 1.6060 would determine additional sellers to join in.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn�t schedule notable economic releases for today and US Banks are closed so we might experience a day driven completely by technical factors.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

Forex News: Today�s headlines � German ZEW and United Kingdom�s inflation
Posted → Technical News

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday Euro bulls managed to take price above first resistance although no major economic or financial indicators were released. The move was mainly technical and it�s not backed by strong fundamentals.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/2014.10.14-Todays-headlines-German-ZEW-and-United-Kingdoms-inflation-pic1.png

Technical Outlook

Price moved above 1.2660 resistance and above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but we can notice the fact that momentum is starting to become neutral as the Moving average is almost flat on a four-hour chart. On an hourly chart we can see that yesterday�s price action created minor resistance at the psychological level of 1.2700 and this will be the first barrier in front of rising prices; a break would make 1.2750 the next target while a bounce lower would take us back into 1.2660.

Fundamental Outlook

The day�s main event is the release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment scheduled at 9:00 am GMT, with an expected value of 0.2, a major drop from last month�s 6.9. This survey is based on the opinions of about 275 German professional investors and analysts and acts as a leading indicator of optimism and economic health. Under normal circumstances, a higher than expected number strengthens the Euro and takes the pair higher.

GBP/USD

The pair�s movement was rather mixed yesterday and we saw the bulls take price higher just to be reversed in the second part of the day. No major news came out and direction was influenced by technical factors.

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Technical Outlook

On a four hour chart it�s clearly visible how the pair found resistance at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and now it�s struggling to break 1.6060 support. Although the bears still have a lot of steam left, the downtrend is definitely weaker than before so it�s not very clear if this level can be broken and the answer will probably be offered by the British inflation numbers released today.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Consumer Price Index is released today at 8:30 am GMT. This is the main gauge of inflation and although the current value is not a reason for concern, if inflation will continue to drop, this will become a worrying issue. Today�s expected change is 1.4%, lower than last month�s 1.5%; if this forecast comes true we might see lower prices on the back of Pound weakness.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

Forex News: Bears back in control. Mario Draghi�s comments can change the tide
Posted → Technical News

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday�s selloff was triggered by a surprisingly low value of the German ZEW survey which is a gauge of optimism among professional investors and analysts. The actual value was -3.6 while the forecast was 0.2 and the Euro weakened as a result.

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Technical Outlook

Following a touch of 1.2750 resistance, price bounced lower and maintained that direction for the most part of yesterday�s trading session. Although the latest momentum belongs to the bears, the resistance at 1.2660 is not broken so we might see some sort of rejection here before price will break the mentioned level. Important events take place today and the pair�s direction will be heavily influenced by them.

Fundamental Outlook

ECB President Mario Draghi will speak twice today: the first speech is scheduled at 7:00 am GMT at a Conference organized by the European Central Bank and the second speech takes place at 6:00 pm GMT at the opening of the European Cultural Days 2014, in Frankfurt. Both events can have a high impact on the Euro but it all depends on what Draghi will say and what his attitude will be.
The United States also scheduled an important event: the release of the Retail Sales. Economic activity is highly influenced by the retail sector and usually a higher than expected value for this indicator strengthens the US Dollar. Today�s anticipated change is -0.1%, a drop from last month�s 0.6%.

GBP/USD

The British CPI disappointed in a tremendous manner, posting a reading of 1.2% while last month�s value was 1.5% and a drop to just 1.4% was forecast. The Pound suffered from this drop and a huge selloff started.

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Technical Outlook

After breaking 1.6060 support decisively, the pair tumbled directly to the next support at 1.5900. The Relative Strength Index reached its 30 level but it doesn�t show a severe oversold condition; however, some sort of pause is likely to be seen here, considering that price traveled too far, too fast. The fundamental scene is packed today so price action will be highly influenced by news releases.

Fundamental Outlook

British employment data is announced today at 8:30 am GMT in the form of the Claimant Count Change. The indicator shows the monthly change in the number of unemployed people and higher numbers suggest economic contraction, weakening the Pound. Today�s forecast is -34.2K while last month�s number was -37.2K. Keep an eye on the US events as those will have a direct impact on the pair�s movement.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

Forex News : Mixed movement ahead of Yellen�s speech and Consumer Confidence survey

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair still had a lot of volatility but not as high as the day before and we saw price fall below main support just to return above it soon after. US economic data came out slightly better than anticipated but we couldn�t see major impact at the time.

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Technical Outlook

The support at 1.2750 was pierced but price soon returned above it and this makes the high at 1.2886 the next target for the pair. To the downside, the zone around 1.2750 will still offer some support but a clear close of a four hour candle below it will make 1.2660 the immediate target. We have two important US events today and these will probably determine the day�s bias.

Fundamental Outlook

Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak today at 12:30 pm GMT at a Conference held at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. As always, her speeches can be a reason for sharp moves and caution is recommended. Later in the day, at 1:55 pm GMT, the University of Michigan will release the Consumer Sentiment survey which acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending because usually a person confident in the economic situation of the country will spend more. Today�s expected number is 84.3, a small decrease from last month�s 84.6 and lower numbers will have a negative impact on the greenback.

GBP/USD

The Pound tried one more time to break support but the bulls took control yesterday and the pair reached resistance once again, so it looks like the disappointing value of the US Retail Sales continues to have a bad influence on the US Dollar.

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Technical Outlook

If the level at 1.6060 can be broken decisively today, we are likely to see a climb close to 1.6160 and the downtrend will be severely weakened. A break of 1.6060 would also mean that price is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average which will then offer dynamic support and this would shift the balance on favor of the bulls. Throughout the day, keep an eye for any possible overbought condition signaled by the Relative Strength Index because this would increase the chances of bearish price action.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected by major news releases today so price direction will be influenced by technical factors and the US events.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.



Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: A RANGING BEGINNING OF THE WEEK?
Posted → Technical News

EUR/USD

Forex News: A survey released Friday by the University of Michigan showed that confidence among American consumers has increased and this brought the pair lower in the second part of the day, on the back of US Dollar strength.

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Technical Outlook

Currently the pair is trading close to the support at 1.2750, above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average; because no major news releases are scheduled today and Mondays are usually slow days, we believe that price will not break the two forms of support mentioned above. We expect ranging movement above and below 1.2750, capped to the downside by the Moving Average. Resistance is located in the zone around 1.2835 � 1.2845 but we don�t anticipate a move above the zone.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Bundesbank Monthly Report is released today at 10:00 am GMT and this will be the day�s only notable event. The report contains a detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions as seen by the German Central Bank and can strengthen the Euro if it is more hawkish than expected.

GBP/USD

After a brief dip below support, the pair ranged above 1.6060 and overall the day didn�t offer strong moves or important breaks of S/R levels.

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Technical Outlook

Today we expect another encounter with 1.6060 support which in combination with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will create a confluence zone. Since the fundamental scene is pretty calm today, we believe the pair will trade between 1.6060 support and 1.6160 resistance, but a break of any of these levels will most likely trigger an expended move in the direction of the break.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn�t schedule any news releases for the day, so the technical aspect will determine the day�s bias.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

2014.10.21 : Forex News: Bounce-or-break scenarios in play

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair had a slow start of the week and price remained above support but movement was mostly ranging and a lot of indecision was present.

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Technical Outlook

On a four hour chart we have a few candles with long wicks in both their upper and lower parts, a thing which suggests indecision regarding the next direction. The support at 1.2750 is holding for the moment and price bounced on the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, facts which indicate a potential climb into 1.2835 resistance. On the other hand, a break of 1.2750 would open the door for a move towards 1.2660.

Fundamental Outlook

At 2:00 pm GMT the US Existing Home Sales are released, with an anticipated change from the previous 5.05M to 5.11M. The indicator shows the annualized number of homes sold during the last month and an increase usually suggests economic expansion, hence a potentially stronger US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The pair also had a slow day yesterday, but movement was mostly bullish and price moved north, in close vicinity of resistance. No major news came out and the technical aspect held center stage.

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Technical Outlook

As the pair is approaching 1.6160 resistance, a “bounce or break” scenario begins to develop: a bullish break would probably take the pair into 1.6250 resistance while a bounce lower would make 1.6060 the next target. The Relative Strength Index is not showing an overbought condition but it is moving close to the 70 level and this could make further bullish advances more difficult.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Office for National Statistics will announce at 8:30 am GMT the Public Sector Net Borrowing. A negative number indicates a surplus while a positive figure shows deficit so the Pound would strengthen if a lower number will be posted today. The forecast is 9.3B while last month’s value was 10.9B.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

#00BFFF2014.10.22 : Forex News: American inflation holds center stage

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair made a sharp reversal after an almost perfect bounce off of resistance and the rest of the day was controlled by the bears. Euro weakness was generated by speculation that the ECB may increase stimulus in order to boost the economy.

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Technical Outlook

The Euro received another blow yesterday and dropped immediately after touching 1.2835 resistance; the support at 1.2750 was broken and price continued through the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. These facts combined with the strength and speed of yesterday�s move makes us believe that today the pair will travel close to the support located at 1.2660.

Fundamental Outlook

American inflation will hold center stage today as the CORE version of the Consumer Price Index is released. This is an important gauge of overall inflation and the Core version excludes automobiles from calculation as they sometimes distort the data because of big fluctuations in automobile sales. The expected change is 0.2% while last month the value was 0.0% and usually a higher than expected number strengthens the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The Pound moved a lot slower than the Euro yesterday and a lackluster fundamental scene was probably the reason for the low volatility. Resistance couldn�t be broken and price traveled slowly to the downside.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/image0032.png

Technical Outlook

We consider the inability of the bulls to break the resistance at 1.6160 a sign of weakness and a hint that bears will step in to take control of the pair. The Relative Strength Index touched the 70 level (which indicates overbought) and is now curving downwards, increasing the chances of a move into 1.6060 support. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average will provide the first form of support if price will indeed start to move south.

Fundamental Outlook

The Bank of England will announce the Official Rate Votes today at 8:30 am GMT. Last month, 2 of the 9 members voted to increase the interest rate and if this structure will remain unchanged we probably won�t see a lot of volatility. However, if more members voted for a rate increase, the Pound will most likely strengthen and the opposite is valid if fewer members voted for a rate hike. Inflation in the US will also affect the pair�s movement directly.



Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.10.23: Forex News: US Dollar strength puts the bears back in control. Retracements expected

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar gained against the Euro and most of its other counterparts as inflation in the United States increased unexpectedly. The pair had a bearish day yesterday and support was touched.

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Technical Outlook

The support at 1.2660 was touched yesterday and price moved below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, things which show that we are trading in a bearish market. A break of the current support zone would make 1.2500 the next target but before that can happen, price will most likely stall around 1.2660. The Relative Strength Index is approaching the 30 level which indicates an oversold market and this increases the chances of bullish moves.

Fundamental Outlook

At 7:00 am GMT France will release the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers� Index, a survey which shows the level of optimism among purchasing managers regarding the current and future economic conditions in the manufacturing sector. The expected number is 48.6 and higher values will most likely strengthen the Euro. Half an hour later, at 7:30 am GMT, Germany will release the indicator with the same name; the forecast is 49.6 and the Euro will be positively affected by a higher number.

GBP/USD

The pair traveled south yesterday as the votes on the latest interest rate decision showed that Bank of England officials see risk for the growth of the UK economy. This dampened the appeal of the Pound and triggered and extended bearish move.

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Technical Outlook

Although the support level at 1.6060 was pierced, we didn�t see a clear break. Price is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and this will be the first form of resistance if the pair will bounce higher. Today�s direction will be heavily influenced by the fundamental aspect, making the technical part somewhat secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Retail Sales are released at 8:30 am GMT with an expected decrease from last month�s 0.4% to -0.1%. Since the retail sector is of crucial importance for overall economic activity, a decrease would negatively affect the Pound and would take the pair lower. Usually the Retail Sales release creates strong moves so we recommend caution if trading at the time.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.10.24 : Forex News: United Kingdom�s GDP and American housing data, the final headlines of the week

EUR/USD

Forex News: Euro strength was seen yesterday once a German Manufacturing survey posted better than expected numbers. However, the pair failed to break resistance and price returned lower later in the day.

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Technical Outlook

Yesterday�s trading session was not characterized by one sided price action and the pair reversed soon after crossing 1.2660 to the upside. There is still a lot of bearish pressure as shown by yesterday�s failed attempt to break 1.2660 resistance but we expect mostly ranging movement today. The first lower level of importance is located at 1.2610, while a move above 1.2660 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average would put the bulls in control.

Fundamental Outlook

The US Dollar will be affected today by the New Home Sales release scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT. Usually people buy a new house in times of economic expansion and this triggers additional expenses (furniture, electronic appliances, etc.), thus higher numbers for today�s release will have a positive impact on the greenback. The forecast is 473K while last month�s number was 504K.

GBP/USD

British Retail Sales disappointed yesterday, triggering a bearish move below support. However, the sellers couldn�t maintain their control over the pair and price moved north later in the day.

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Technical Outlook

The choppy price action seen yesterday paints an unclear picture with long wicked candles which suggest indecision. Resistance sits at 1.6060 while first major support is located at 1.5900 and the day�s direction will be dictated by the value of the British Gross Domestic Product which is the main gauge of an economy�s overall performance.

Fundamental Outlook

The release of United Kingdom�s GDP is scheduled at 8:30 am GMT and the expected value is 0.7%, a decrease from the previous 0.9%. This would be another blow to British economic recovery and would weaken the Pound, driving the pair lower. As always, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair�s direction.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.



Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: EUROPEAN BANKS STRESS TESTS RESULTS GENERATE CHOPPY PRICE ACTION

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday’s price behavior was influenced by rumors regarding the European Banks stress tests and the bulls reversed an initial move below support. Although price action was choppy, the day and week ended above support.

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Technical Outlook

The pair’s movement will be heavily affected by the European Banks stress tests released Sunday and some irregular volatility might be experienced throughout the day. The important levels are 1.2660 to the downside and 1.2695 (Friday’s high) to the upside. A break of either one would expose the resistance at 1.2750 or the support zone between 1.2620 and 1.2600 and could trigger an extended move in that direction.

Fundamental Outlook

The German IFO Business Climate survey is released today at 9:00 am GMT. The importance of this survey comes from its large sample of about 7,000 businesses but also from the fact that it acts as a leading indicator of optimism and economic health. The anticipated value is 104.6 and higher numbers usually have a positive impact on the Euro.

The US Pending Home Sales will be released at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to increase 1.1% from last month’s -1.0%, a fact which would strengthen the greenback.

GBP/USD

United Kingdom’s Preliminary Gross Domestic Product posted the anticipated value Friday but this was interpreted as bullish by most market participants and the Pound strengthened, finishing the week above 1.6060.

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Technical Outlook

Although the pair climbed above resistance, the move doesn’t seem to be backed by strong fundamentals and could be easily reversed. If price moves below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below 1.6060, the first target will be represented by the minor support at 1.6000. If 1.6060 will be successfully tested from above and turns into support, price will head towards the next resistance which is located at 1.6180 but we don’t expect it to travel the entire distance unless surprising events take place.

Fundamental Outlook

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) will announce today at 11:00 am GMT the Realized Sales. This index is a leading indicator of consumer spending because the sales made by wholesalers and retailers are directly influenced by consumers. Today’s anticipated value is 35 and numbers above it usually strengthen the Pound, suggesting increased economic activity.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: RESISTANCE AHEAD. US DATA DETERMINES THE DAY’S BIAS

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair’s behavior was mainly influenced by the fundamental aspect as we saw a weak Euro once a worse than anticipated value of the German IFO survey was posted, followed by US Dollar weakness when the Pending Home Sales failed to meet analysts’ expectations.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/2014.10.28-Resistance-ahead.-US-data-determines-the-days-bias-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The latest momentum belongs to the Euro bulls on the back of a weak Dollar but on an hourly chart we can note the Relative Strength Index is approaching overbought territory and this may trigger some bearish price action. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is now sitting below price and will offer support if touched from above; the first upper target is located at 1.2750 while support is represented by 1.2620 if the Moving Average is broken.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the American Durable Goods Orders are announced, showing the change in orders for goods with a life expectancy of at least 3 years. Analysts expect a change of 0.4%, a huge difference from last month’s -18.4% and we believe that any value close to this expectation would strengthen the US Dollar.

Later in the day, at 2:00 pm GMT a US Consumer Confidence survey is released and expected to change from 86.0 to 87.4. A higher number would also benefit the US Dollar because confidence among consumers is often an indication of increased retail sales in the near future.

GBP/USD

The Pound continued to climb higher on the back of a better than anticipated value of the CBI Realized Sales and is now trading above a four-hour 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Overall yesterday the pair moved in one direction, without sharp reversals.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/2014.10.28-Resistance-ahead.-US-data-determines-the-days-bias-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The peak at 1.6180 is considered the pair’s first target and also the first place where the bulls may encounter some resistance. If price will indeed reach this level and the Relative Strength Index will enter overbought territory, the chances of a bounce lower will be increased. To the downside the first support is offered by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, followed by the level at 1.6060.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today so price action will be affected by the technical aspect and by the US indicators mentioned earlier.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: US MONETARY POLICY IN THE SPOTLIGHT. VOLATILITY INCREASES

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Durable Goods Orders disappointed yesterday, posting a reading of -1.3% which weakened the US Dollar and allowed the pair to move straight up into major resistance. Later in the day, an optimistic value of the US Consumer Confidence survey erased some of the greenback’s losses.

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Technical Outlook

On the hourly chart above, we can note the pair is having some difficulty breaking 1.2750 resistance and on top of that, the Relative Strength Index has reached overbought. Although the overbought condition is not an extreme one, we expect the pair to bounce lower, possibly for a touch of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If 1.2750 is broken, the next resistance is located at 1.2835.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s main event is represented by the US interest rate announcement, together with the FOMC Rate Statement, both scheduled at 6:00 pm GMT. The rate is not expected to change from the current <0.25% but the biggest market mover will probably be the FOMC statement which will offer hints about future monetary policy and the reasons which stood behind the rate decision. A positive outlook contained by this Statement will most likely strengthen the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

Similar to the Euro, the Pound gained against the greenback and resistance was touched but a break didn’t occur. Overall we had a bullish day, with price controlled by the buyers.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/2014.10.29-US-Monetary-Policy-in-the-spotlight.-Volatility-increases-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

Once price reached 1.6180 resistance, bullish momentum dampened and the action slowed down. Before this level can be broken, we expect small pullbacks lower and if a break will occur, the level needs to be tested from above for the pair to be considered a true one. To the downside, the first dynamic support is represented by the Exponential Moving Average while horizontal support sits at 1.6060.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Net Lending to Individuals value is announced; the indicator shows the sum of new credit issued to clients and higher numbers are considered bullish because they indicate a thriving economy where people are confident and willing to spend money. On the other hand, it also indicates that banks are comfortable issuing those loans. The expected value is 2.8B, a decrease from the previous 3.2B and higher than anticipated readings will most likely strengthen the Pound. Of course, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: GERMAN INFLATION AND AMERICAN GDP HOLD CENTER STAGE

EUR/USD

Forex News: Before the US interest rate and FOMC Statement were released, the pair climbed above resistance after a shallow pullback but the Fed ended their bond buying program, indicating optimism and the US Dollar strengthened substantially against most of its peers.

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Technical Outlook

The pair dropped more than 120 pips once the Fed decision was made public and we expect this bearish momentum to continue today. The first barrier which needs to be broken is represented by the support at 1.2620, followed by 1.2500. Although we believe the first support will be broken, we don’t expect the second one to be even touched; of course, depending on the important events scheduled for today, 1.2500 could be reached.

Fundamental Outlook

German inflation data is released today at 12:00 pm GMT (Preliminary CPI); analysts expect a negative change of -0.1% compared with last month’s 0.0% and this would weaken the Euro especially since lately the ECB tries without notable success to increase inflation in the Euro Zone.

The American Advance Gross Domestic Product will be released at 12:30 pm GMT, with an anticipated value of 3.1% compared with last month’s 4.6%. Since the GDP is an economy’s main gauge of performance, a lower than anticipated value signifies a contracting economy and could weaken the US Dollar. Half an hour later, at 1:00 pm GMT Fed Chair Janet Yellen will deliver a speech but we don’t expect it to be a major market mover; however, surprises can happen so we recommend caution nonetheless.

GBP/USD

Yesterday, prior to the US releases the pair bounced lower at resistance but massive US Dollar strength seen later in the day triggered a huge selloff, taking price below support.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/2014.10.30-German-inflation-and-American-GDP-hold-center-stage-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The level at 1.6060 was broken decisively and the pair is trading close to 1.6000; we expect this level to be broken today and the pair to start heading towards the next support, located at 1.5900. However, the Relative Strength Index will soon reach oversold territory and this will probably trigger some bullish pullbacks but we don’t believe it will completely reverse price action.

Fundamental Outlook

The British fundamental scene is slow today and the pair’s direction will be almost completely determined by the US events and by the technical aspect.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: MIXED PRICE ACTION AHEAD OF EUROPEAN INFLATION DATA

EUR/USD

Forex News: German inflation dropped yesterday more than analysts anticipated and the US Gross Domestic Product increased 3.5% while the anticipated value was 3.1%. Al this generated another bearish push for the pair during the first part of the day but a pullback occurred in the second part.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/2014.10.31-Mixed-price-action-ahead-of-European-inflation-data-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The bullish move seen yesterday doesn’t seem to have a clear reason and we expect the sellers to continue their assault on support today. The pair is currently testing the level at 1.2620 from below and we favor a bounce lower which will take price in close vicinity of 1.2500 key support. The Relative Strength Index is close to oversold (probably this had something to do with yesterday’s rise) but we don’t consider the position of the RSI something that could fully reverse price direction. However, if 1.2620 is broken to the upside, the next target will be represented by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s main event is the release of the European Preliminary Consumer Price Index scheduled at 10:00 am GMT. European inflation is a major concern for the ECB as their desired target is just below 2.0% and the current value of 0.3% is considered too low. For today’s release, analysts expect a rise of 0.4% and probably if this value will not be reached, the Euro will weaken, allowing the pair to descend.

GBP/USD

Although the pair moved lower when the better than expected value of the American GDP was posted, it soon began to climb, breaking 1.6000 to the upside and overall yesterday price was controlled by the bulls.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/2014.10.31-Mixed-price-action-ahead-of-European-inflation-data-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

Today we expect the bearish pressure to take the pair lower, probably below 1.6000 as the latest move north is considered just a correction. If price continues to move to the upside, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average combined with the level at 1.6060 will provide resistance and the chances of bearish movement will substantially increase if that confluence zone will be reached.

Fundamental Outlook

From a fundamental point of view the entire week has been slow for the United Kingdom and the same is valid for today as no major economic or financial indicators are released. Price direction will be mainly affected by the technical aspect.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: SUPPORT THREATENED AHEAD OF MANUFACTURING PMI RELEASES

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday’s session was controlled by the bears and the pair remained below its resistance. This was mostly triggered by the fact that Euro Zone inflation didn’t show any clear sign of improvement, coupled with optimistic US economic data.

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Technical Outlook

Once the pair touched 1.2500 support, it immediately bounced higher, showing signs of rejection; also, the Relative Strength Index is close to the 30 level which suggests a possible oversold condition. These factors make us believe that today we will see a retracement higher before the pair will make another attempt to break 1.2500 support, heading towards 1.2440.

Fundamental Outlook

At 3:00 pm GMT the US Manufacturing PMI is announced and expected to remain almost unchanged at 56.5 compared with last month’s 56.6. This is a survey of about 400 purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector and acts as a leading indicator of optimism and economic health, thus higher numbers can strengthen the US Dollar, driving the pair lower.

GBP/USD

The pair showed choppy price action Friday as it failed to move away from the level at 1.6000. All moves were quickly reversed and neither side was in clear control.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/2014.11.03-Support-threatened-ahead-of-Manufacturing-PMI-releases-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

Friday’s choppy action makes the picture unclear for today and the pair is range-bound below 1.6000. Once price moves away from this level, we can expect a touch of either 1.6060 resistance or 1.5900 support but the direction will be decided by the economic data scheduled for release.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing PMI is released at 9:30 am GMT. As mentioned before, the PMI is a survey derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector and indicates the levels of optimism. A value above the anticipated 51.5 has the potential to strengthen the Pound, taking the pair higher and the opposite is true for a value below expectations.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: BEARS MAINTAIN CONTROL AS LONG AS RESISTANCE REMAINS INTACT

EUR/USD

Forex News: The week opened with a downside gap and on top of that, US Dollar strength generated by a better than expected American Manufacturing PMI took the pair into the support at 1.2440. However, price remained close to 1.2500 for most of the day.

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Technical Outlook

The Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart is hovering near the 30 level which indicates oversold and the pair bounced higher after touching the support at 1.2440. Although these are bullish signs, the pair is in a downtrend and the strength still belongs to the bears so further advances to the south are not out of the question but 1.2440 remains the first barrier. To the upside, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average can provide resistance, as well as the current level at 1.2500.

Fundamental Outlook

The most important event of the day is the US Trade Balance scheduled for release at 1:30 pm GMT. This indicator measures the difference between imported and exported goods and a negative number suggests that imports exceeded exports; a higher number than the anticipated -40.0B can have a positive impact on the greenback as it shows increased demand for American goods and services.

GBP/USD

The British Manufacturing PMI posted a value which exceeded analysts’ expectations but this strengthened the Pound only for a brief moment and the bulls failed to capitalize on the news.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/2014.11.04-Bears-maintain-control-as-long-as-resistance-remains-intact-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The strength generated by the positive British news found resistance at 1.6000 and the pair started to move lower for the remainder of the day but overall neither bulls nor bears managed to gain a clear advantage. However, the pair remains below resistance, without being oversold so we consider the bias remains bearish as long as 1.6000 is not breached. The first support is located at 1.5900.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Construction PMI is announced today at 9:30 am GMT and is expected to decrease slightly from last month’s 64.2 to 63.5. The indicator is a survey of purchasing managers from the construction sector and tries to gauge their optimism regarding economic and business conditions, thus a higher value can strengthen the Pound, taking the pair higher.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: FIRST US EMPLOYMENT DATA OF THE WEEK COULD SHAKE THE MARKET

EUR/USD

Forex News: The bulls managed to break resistance yesterday as the Euro gained against a US Dollar weakened by a disappointing Trade Balance. Later in the evening rumors about turmoil within the ECB generated increased volatility and some strong movement.

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Technical Outlook

The pair moved above the resistance at 1.2500 which has now turned into support and the short term bias is bullish. The Relative Strength Index is angled upwards, after being previously oversold and this indicates that further advances can be made, aiming towards 1.2620 resistance. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is the first barrier in front of rising prices and a place where bullish movement can be reversed.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s main event is the release of the ADP Non Farm Employment Change scheduled at 1:15 pm GMT. This report is put together by a privately owned company and tries to mimic the government employment data (NFP) which comes out Friday. A higher number than the expected 214K would strengthen the greenback because increased job creation suggests a thriving economy and acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending.

GBP/USD

Yesterday the pair had very slow and choppy price action, with its biggest move happening at the time of the British Construction data release. The worse than anticipated value weakened the Pound but this weakness didn’t last long and the pair continued slowly upwards.

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Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s price action was inconclusive and does not offer a lot of hints regarding today’s probable direction. However, the Relative Strength Index is angled upwards, so we may see a touch of 1.6060 resistance if the bulls manage to keep price above 1.6000. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is the first barrier and we may see a bounce lower once price touches it; if this happens, we believe 1.6000 will be broken to the downside.

Fundamental Outlook

The final British Purchasing Managers’ Index of the week is released today at 9:30 am GMT: the Services PMI. This survey acts as a leading indicator of economic health and higher numbers suggest optimism among purchasing managers from the services sector, thus the Pound tends to strengthen. The forecast is 58.5 while last month’s value was slightly higher at 58.7.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: ECB’S RATE DECISION AND PRESS CONFERENCE SET THE STAGE FOR SHARP MOVES

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar strengthened yesterday even before the ADP employment data was released and a better than anticipated value for this indicator added fuel to the downwards momentum. The day was controlled by the bears and today we expect further advances.

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Technical Outlook

The level at 1.2500 was broken to the downside and price didn’t even pause before moving past it, showing that the latest move has momentum and that 1.2440 is the pair’s next target. If this support is breached, the next one is located at 1.2280 but probably more than one day will pass before the pair reaches it. Today’s price direction will be mostly influenced by the ECB Press Conference so the technical side will be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:45 pm GMT the ECB will announce their interest rate decision, with no change expected from the current 0.05% but the more important event is the ECB Press Conference scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT. ECB President Mario Draghi will read a prepared statement and then will answer journalists’ questions; this second part of the press conference is usually the one that triggers strong and often irregular movement. Caution is recommended if trading during the Press Conference.


GBP/USD

The Pound suffered losses during the first part of yesterday after a worse than expected value of the Services PMI was posted, but most of these loses were erased in the second part of the day, even if the US Dollar strengthened against other currencies.

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Technical Outlook

Yesterday price bounced between the resistance at 1.6000 and the support at 1.5900, traveling the entire distance down then climbing back up close to resistance. Whichever level is breached first today will probably determine an extended move in that direction but we consider resistance harder to break because the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is in close vicinity.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing Production numbers come out at 9:30 am GMT, showing the change in the total value of goods produced by the manufacturing sector. Last month’s value was 0.1% and the forecast for today’s indicator is 0.3%; a higher value would be beneficial for the Pound, taking the pair higher. Later in the day, at 12:00 pm GMT the Bank of England will announce the Interest Rate but no change is anticipated from the current 0.50%. However, caution is recommended as the market can react strongly to speculation about a future rate change.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: FINISHING THE WEEK WITH A BANG: THE US NON FARM EMPLOYMENT REPORT

EUR/USD

Forex News: Although the ECB kept rates unchanged at a record low, the Euro weakened yesterday against most of its peers and a sharp fall was seen in our pair when ECB President Mario Draghi commented that additional stimulus measures will be used if needed.

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Technical Outlook


The support at 1.2440 was breached yesterday but price soon retraced for a re-test; if the pair will rebound here, the level will turn into resistance and further down swings are anticipated. The Relative Strength Index is not signaling an extreme oversold situation and momentum belongs to the bears but the US employment report released today will strongly affect the US Dollar and will probably determine the day’s bias.

Fundamental Outlook

The main event of the day is scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT in the form of the US Non Farm Employment Change, also known as Non Farm Payrolls. This is considered the most important jobs related data coming from the United States and a higher number can strengthen the greenback substantially as more jobs indicate that consumer spending is likely to increase in the near future. The expected number is 229K, a drop from last month’s 248K. Later in the day, at 3:15 pm GMT, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak at a Symposium in Paris; audience questions are expected and volatility can increase so caution is recommended.

GBP/USD

The Bank of England decided to keep rates unchanged as expected but the pair had similar behavior to the EUR/USD and price moved into support after bouncing at resistance.

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Technical Outlook


The 50 period Exponential Moving Average combined with the level at 1.6000 offered enough resistance for price to bounce lower and to maintain that direction for almost the entire day. On the other hand, the level at 1.5900 couldn’t be broken and we saw the pair pause there so we can’t consider either side to be in clear control. On top of that, today’s technical aspect will be secondary as the US employment data will hold center stage.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases today so price direction will be mainly affected by the US events.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: BOUNCE AT SUPPORT: SIMPLE RETRACEMENT OR A REVERSAL IN THE MAKING?

EUR/USD

Forex News: The American Non Farm Payrolls showed a disappointing number for Friday’s release and the US Dollar weakened as a result, allowing the pair to climb above short term resistance. At the time of the release price action was choppy and some whipsaws could be seen on the lower time frames.

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Technical Outlook

Although price crossed 1.2440 to the upside, the main picture still remains bearish as the pair is still below its 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below 1.2500 resistance. The first barrier the bears need to break is the current level at 1.2440 followed by 1.2360 but today we don’t expect major moves as the fundamental scene holds no special events.

Fundamental Outlook

The release of the Sentix Investor Confidence survey is the only thing that could affect the Euro today but overall we have a calm day. The survey is based on the opinions of about 2,800 investors and analysts regarding economic health, but usually it doesn’t create strong movement unless a big difference between forecast and actual number is posted. The scheduled time is 9:30 am GMT and the forecast is -6.9.

GBP/USD

Price direction was affected Friday by the US employment report and overall the pair moved similar to the EUR/USD, climbing due to a weak greenback.

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Technical Outlook

Although the Dollar showed signs of weakness, the Pound bulls couldn’t break or even touch the resistance at 1.5900. From a strictly technical point of view, Friday’s climb can be attributed to bullish divergence present on a four-hour chart and can be considered a simple retracement in a downtrend. For today we expect a bounce at 1.5900, followed by a move lower but if this level will be breached, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will be the next resistance; support sits at 1.5790, Friday’s low.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any news releases for the day so price action will be determined by the technical aspect.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: BANK HOLIDAYS MAY TRIGGER IRREGULAR VOLATILITY
EUR/USD
Forex News: The pair continued to move higher yesterday, on the back of a US Dollar weakened by Friday’s disappointing NFP result. However, resistance couldn’t be surpassed and a bounce lower was seen in the second part of the day.
http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/2014.11.11-Bank-Holidays-may-trigger-irregular-volatility-pic1-1024x479.png
Technical Outlook
The resistance located at 1.2500 combined with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average created a confluence zone which proved enough motive for the pair to start to move on a bearish path. Now 1.2440 has turned into support once again and a break would make 1.2360 the next target; we favor this scenario as the bears still have underlying strength and a downtrend is still in place.
Fundamental Outlook
American Banks will be closed today, celebrating Veterans Day and French Banks will be closed in celebration of Armistice Day. This means that no major indicators will be released and that price direction will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect.
GBP/USD
The pair spent a lot of time yesterday near the resistance at 1.5900 before finally dropping in the second part of the day as the bulls made several failed attempts to break the mentioned level.
http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/2014.11.11-Bank-Holidays-may-trigger-irregular-volatility-pic2-1024x479.png
Technical Outlook
On an hourly chart, price moved back below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the resistance at 1.5900 couldn’t be clearly broken although several candles pierced it. These are bearish signs which make us believe that today the sellers will be in control of the pair and will take it lower. The first potential support is located at 1.5790 but a break of this level is not anticipated although we expect price to move towards it. For the time being, the level at 1.5900 is still resistance.
Fundamental Outlook
The Pound will not be affected today by important news releases and the fact that American Banks are closed may generate irregular volatility.
Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: BRITISH INFLATION REPORT AND CARNEY’S SPEECH TAKE CENTER STAGE

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair moved very slowly compared to the way it has moved during the last period and clear direction lacked. However, the bulls showed more strength and price traveled upwards for the most part of the day.

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Technical Outlook

The latest move north is not very convincing and we anticipate that price will drop towards the support at 1.2360 if the resistance at 1.2440 is not broken soon. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is above price, a fact which means that the picture remains bearish. On the other hand, a break of 1.2440 resistance would open the door for a move towards 1.2500 and would make the short term bias bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

Euro Zone’s Industrial Production is announced today at 10:00 am GMT and is expected to change 0.6% while last month’s value was -1.8%. The indicator measures the change in the value of output produced by manufacturers and a higher number suggests a thriving economy and usually strengthens the Euro.

GBP/USD

The pair had a slow day as well and probably a big role was played by the fact that yesterday US Banks were closed. For most of the day control did not clearly belong to either side but overall the bulls were more prominent.

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Technical Outlook

The current direction is likely to remain unchanged until 1.5900 is touched and if that happens, we anticipate a bounce lower. On the other hand, a break of resistance followed by a successful re-test will most likely bring in more buyers and the bias will turn bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Claimant Count Change is released today at 9:30 am GMT; the indicator shows how many people applied for social help due to unemployment compared with the previous month and lower numbers are beneficial for the currency. The anticipated change is -24.9K while the previous was -18.6.


At 10:30 am GMT the BoE will release the Inflation Report and Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference discussing the report which contains an outlook for inflation for the next 2 years. Carney’s speech will probably be the day’s most important event and volatility is likely to increase at the time so caution is recommended.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

Forex News: Euro breakouts anticipated while the Pound struggles to overcome support

EUR/USD

Forex News: Euro Zone’s Industrial Production came out as anticipated, with a change of 0.6% so the event didn’t generate substantial movement. For almost the entire day the pair bounced between support and resistance, without clear direction.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/2014.11.13-Euro-breakouts-anticipated-while-the-Pound-struggles-to-overcome-support-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.2440 and the resistance at 1.2500 proved to be strong barriers which rejected price yesterday. However, today we expect price to move outside the range created by the two levels and to continue in the direction of the initial break. We favor the short side given the fact that yesterday the Relative Strength Index reached its 70 level twice and another bullish move would probably create bearish divergence. First support will be located at 1.2360 if 1.2440 is broken while resistance sits at 1.2620 if 1.2500 is broken.

Fundamental Outlook

The day lacks major news releases but noteworthy is the German Final Consumer Price Index which is scheduled for release at 7:00 am GMT. The expected change is -0.3%, same as last month but the Final version doesn’t hold as much importance as the Preliminary; higher values would strengthen the Euro nonetheless.

GBP/USD

The Pound weakened substantially yesterday as the Claimant Count Change posted a value of -20.4K, worse than analysts expected. This took price back below 1.5900 and generated a day controlled by the bears.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/2014.11.13-Euro-breakouts-anticipated-while-the-Pound-struggles-to-overcome-support-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The momentum belongs to the bears once again but the important support at 1.5790 sits in front of descending prices. If this barrier can be surpassed, the next level of importance is represented by 1.5750 but we must note the position of the Relative Strength Index which touched the 30 level twice yesterday on an hourly chart. This doesn’t mean necessarily that price will bounce higher at support but it is a bullish factor which must be taken into account.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no major news releases scheduled for today thus price direction will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: US RETAIL SALES DETERMINE THE TREND EUR/USD Forex News: Yesterday the pair remained confined inside the horizontal channel created by support and resistance and although price action was mostly bullish, the anticipated breakout didn’t occur. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/2014.11.14-US-Retail-Sales-determine-the-trend-pic1-1024x479.png Technical Outlook A breakout is still anticipated as yesterday price failed to move out of the horizontal channel and now the pair has been moving mostly sideways for an extended period of time. Support is located at 1.2440 and resistance at 1.2500 and a break of either one will most likely generate a strong move in that direction. The fundamental scene is busy today and this adds to our belief that price will break the channel. Fundamental Outlook The German Preliminary Gross Domestic Product is scheduled for release at 7:00 am GMT and is expected to grow from last month’s -0.2% to 0.1%. This would be beneficial for the Euro as the GDP is an economy’s main gauge of overall health. At 1:30 pm GMT the US Retail Sales are released, with an anticipated change of 0.2% compared with last month’s -0.3%. Because sales made at a retail level represent an important part of the entire economic activity, a higher value would suggest increased activity and thus a stronger greenback. The final important indicator of the week is the Consumer Sentiment survey released by the University of Michigan. The scheduled time is 2:55 pm GMT and the forecast is 87.3, a small increase from last month’s 86.9. GBP/USD The pair traveled south for almost the entire duration of yesterday’s trading session and support was clearly broken. The downtrend has a new low and the US Dollar is easily overpowering the Pound. 2014.11.14 US Retail Sales determine the trend pic2 http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/2014.11.14-US-Retail-Sales-determine-the-trend-pic2-1024x479.png Technical Outlook The important support at 1.5750 was broken yesterday but the Relative Strength Index is now showing a clear oversold condition, traveling below its 30 level on an hourly chart. The latest move seems a bit overextended and this creates the possibility of a bullish move which will re-test the broken level at 1.5750 before the downtrend can resume. Fundamental Outlook Although the United Kingdom doesn’t release any major news today, the American events will have a direct and important impact on the pair’s movement. Positive US data will most likely take the pair lower. We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

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[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: ALL EYES ON DRAGHI’S TESTIMONY ON MONETARY POLICY

EUR/USD

Forex News: A better than expected US Retail Sales reading initially took price lower Friday, creating US Dollar strength, but soon after the pair rebounded higher, breaking resistance.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/2014.11.17-All-eyes-on-Draghis-testimony-on-monetary-policy-pic1-1024x481.png

Technical Outlook
The pair moved outside the horizontal channel by breaking the resistance located at 1.2500 and we expect the upside to prevail today but a test of the recently broken level is very probable. The Relative Strength Index is curving downwards in close vicinity of its 70 level, adding to our belief that price will touch 1.2500 before moving north. If price will not bounce higher and the level will not turn into support, we are likely to see a move towards 1.2400.

Fundamental Outlook
At 2:00 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will testify before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs. The topic will be monetary policy and this makes the speech a very important one because traders around the globe will try to decipher his words in order to find clues about the next interest rate decision. Volatility is expected and caution is recommended.

GBP/USD
Friday’s trading session was characterized by mixed behavior as price dropped when the US Retail Sales came out but soon the Pound erased most of the losses and the pair moved north, finishing the week on a bullish note.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/2014.11.17-All-eyes-on-Draghis-testimony-on-monetary-policy-pic2-1024x481.png

Technical Outlook
The Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart has started to move upwards and is trying to come out of oversold territory so for today’s trading session we expect price to rise, having 1.5750 as target. However, this resistance level could be a too distant target as Mondays are usually slow days if no major economic indicators are released. To the downside, potential support sits at 1.5590 and we don’t expect it to be broken.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any news releases for today but the pair will be influenced by the US Industrial Production numbers which come out at 2:15 pm GMT. The indicator tracks changes in the value of output produced by the Industrial sector and higher values than today’s anticipated 0.2% will most likely strengthen the greenback, taking the pair lower.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: BRITISH INFLATION IN THE FOCUS – POUND HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY THE CPI READING

EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday the sellers managed to reverse the initial bullish breakout and to bring the pair back inside the horizontal channel. ECB President Mario Draghi mentioned that added stimulus is needed to bring the economy back on the right track and this created further Euro weakness.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/2014.11.18-British-inflation-in-the-focus-Pound-highly-influenced-by-the-CPI-reading-pic1-1024x481.png

Technical Outlook
Although the channel created by 1.2500 resistance and 1.2400 support was broken, price returned inside, signaling that the pair might be headed towards 1.2400. The bias is slightly bearish but as long as price cannot exit the channel and remain outside, the ranging period is not over and we might see further choppy price action.

Fundamental Outlook
At 10:00 am GMT the German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey is released and expected to show a value of 0.9, an increase from last month’s -3.6. The survey tracks optimism among German professional analysts and investors and usually a higher than anticipated number strengthens the Euro.
The American Producer Price Index will be released at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to change -0.1%, same as last month. The indicator has inflationary implications because a higher price charged by producers will be eventually passed on to the retail consumer so higher values usually strengthen the US Dollar.

GBP/USD
The pair dropped yesterday after a bullish move which brought price in close vicinity of 1.5750 resistance. Almost the entire day was controlled by the bears but support was not threatened.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/2014.11.18-British-inflation-in-the-focus-Pound-highly-influenced-by-the-CPI-reading-pic2-1024x481.png

Technical Outlook
The outlook is once again bearish as the pair is still trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average after a failed attempt to move above it. The first support and potential target for the day is located at 1.5590, while resistance still sits at 1.5750 but the day’s bias will be determined by the British inflation numbers released in the morning.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Consumer Price Index is scheduled for release at 9:30 am GMT and the expected change is 1.2%, same as last month. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney recently expressed his concerns about downside risks for inflation and this could mean that a lower value of the CPI might be perceived more bearish than usual, generating Pound weakness.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: MIXED PRICE ACTION AHEAD OF THE FOMC MEETING MINUTES

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the ZEW Economic Sentiment survey showed increased levels of optimism among German analysts and professional investors, a fact that strengthened the Euro and took the pair back above short term resistance.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/2014.11.19-Mixed-price-action-ahead-of-the-FOMC-Meeting-Minutes-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The period of indecision is still not over as shown by the pair’s movement lately: resistance has been broken but the bulls failed to push price higher and on the other hand, the bears couldn’t make any significant advances when price moved below 1.2500 again. Currently price is testing the level at 1.2500 which may turn into support but if it’s broken to the downside, support will be offered by the bullish trend line seen on the chart above. If price travels higher the first resistance is represented by the double top located at 1.2577.

Fundamental Outlook

The American Building Permits numbers are announced at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to increase to 1.04M from last month’s 1.02M (annualized number), a fact which would generate US Dollar strength. However, a more important event is the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes scheduled at 7:00 pm GMT. The Minutes contain insights into the reasons which stood behind the latest interest rate decision and usually can offer hints about the bias of future monetary policy. We expect strong moves for the greenback at the time of the release and caution is recommended.

GBP/USD

The British Consumer Price Index surprised yesterday by showing an increase of 1.3% compared with analysts’ expectation of 1.2%. However, the market didn’t respond as anticipated and the Pound didn’t move strongly at the time of the release.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/2014.11.19-Mixed-price-action-ahead-of-the-FOMC-Meeting-Minutes-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The 50 period Exponential Moving Average offered good resistance yesterday and pushed price lower but the picture remains mixed, with a slightly bearish bias, considering the strong downtrend. The first support is located at 1.5590 but if price can break through the Moving Average, we will probably see a climb close to 1.5750.

Fundamental Outlook

The Bank of England will make public today at 9:30 am GMT the breakdown of the latest interest rate votes. This is a good opportunity to see if more MPC members voted for a rate change or if some of them are starting to change their stance. Usually volatility is created only if some MPC members changed their view, but caution is recommended nonetheless.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: FINAL DAY OF THE TRADING WEEK RULED BY TECHNICAL FACTORS

EUR/USD

Forex News: The German Manufacturing PMI disappointed yesterday and American inflation numbers came out slightly better than anticipated but the impact was not very strong and the pair showed very choppy price action throughout the day.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/2014.11.21-Final-day-of-the-trading-week-ruled-by-technical-factors-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The pair touched 1.2577 again but failed to move above it and then the bullish trend line was tested but it offered good enough support. The picture is mixed and neither side is in control, a situation which will most likely continue until 1.2577 resistance or diagonal support is broken. Horizontal support sits at 1.2500 and will be the pair’s first destination if the trend line is breached.

Fundamental Outlook

The day is rather calm in terms of economic news releases but ECB President Mario Draghi will speak at the 24th European Banking Congress, in Frankfurt and this can be a reason for volatility depending on the matters discussed. The event is scheduled at 8:00 am GMT and caution is recommended although the speech is not expected to be a major market mover.

GBP/USD

British Retail Sales showed a change of 0.8%, much better than the anticipated 0.4% and the Pound strengthened as a result, generating a trading day with bullish price action.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/2014.11.21-Final-day-of-the-trading-week-ruled-by-technical-factors-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.5750 wasn’t threatened yesterday and the Relative Strength Index is close to the 70 level which shows a potentially overbought condition. If price will touch 1.5750 with the RSI being overbought, we favor a bounce lower, with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average being the first support. A break of this support would open the door for a move towards 1.5590.

Fundamental Outlook

The day ahead lacks major news releases for the Pound but the only noteworthy data is the Public Sector Net Borrowing scheduled at 9:00 am GMT and expected to decrease to 6.9B from the previous 11.1B. A lower figure than the anticipated one is considered beneficial for the Pound but the indicator usually has a medium impact.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: SCARCE ECONOMIC RELEASES TRANSLATE INTO A SLOW MONDAY

EUR/USD

Forex News: Last week’s strongest move occurred Friday on the back of Mario Draghi’s renewed commitment to add further stimulus in order to boost economic recovery and to raise inflation. This was perceived as bearish for the Euro and the pair moved strongly south.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/2014.11.24-Scarce-economic-releases-translate-into-a-slow-Monday-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The pair broke through the bullish trend line and the support at 1.2500 before stopping close to 1.2400 support. The momentum clearly belongs to the bears as the Euro is affected by inflation concerns and we expect the downside to prevail but before that can happen, some sort of retracement higher is likely to occur. The Relative Strength Index traveled below its 30 level, indicating oversold and increasing the chances of bullish pullbacks.

Fundamental Outlook

The release of the German IFO Business Climate survey is the only notable event of the day. This survey shows the optimism of about 7,000 German business owners regarding economic conditions and acts as a leading indicator of economic health. The scheduled time of the release is 9:00 am GMT and a higher number than the expected 103.0 usually has a beneficial impact on the Euro.

GBP/USD

Friday the US Dollar pushed the pair lower but the strength of the move was not convincing and a lot of the losses were erased later during the day. Overall we saw choppy price action, without substantial advances.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/2014.11.24-Scarce-economic-releases-translate-into-a-slow-Monday-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The pair has been moving mostly sideways lately, with single impulses which failed to be continued and were quickly reversed. The bias is slightly bearish but it is clear that momentum is not strong; however, price is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the support at 1.5590 is likely to act as a magnet. Resistance is located at 1.5750 but we don’t expect it to be touched today.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no economic releases scheduled today for the Pound and the same is true for the US Dollar so we expect a slow day, with choppy price action.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: THE DOWNTREND WAVERS. RESISTANCE THREATENED

EUR/USD
Forex News: The American Gross Domestic Product posted a better than expected reading but the pair failed to break 1.2400 and rebounded higher after a brief moment of bearishness.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/2014.11.26-The-downtrend-wavers.-Resistance-threatened-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook
Yesterday’s rise took price in close vicinity of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on a four hour chart but resistance has not been broken so the picture is not strongly bullish for the moment. On the other hand, support pushed price higher and this makes 1.2500 the first target. However, if 1.2500 is touched and the Relative Strength Index is overbought at the time, we anticipate a bounce lower.
Fundamental Outlook

The US Durable Goods Orders are scheduled for release at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to change -0.4% while last month’s value was -1.1%. The indicator tracks changes in the value of goods with a life expectancy of at least three years and higher values usually strengthen the greenback.
The US New Home Sales numbers come out at 3:00 pm GMT with an anticipated value of 471K, slightly better than last month’s 467K. Same as for the other indicator, a higher value suggests economic expansion and usually strengthens the US Dollar.

GBP/USD
The Pound had a good day against the US Dollar despite the value of the American GDP which was better than anticipated. The Inflation Report hearings created mixed market reaction which did not result in strong movement.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/2014.11.26-The-downtrend-wavers.-Resistance-threatened-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook
The 50 period Exponential Moving Average was clearly broken yesterday and now will probably act as support. The immediate target is located at 1.5750 but the Relative Strength Index is approaching overbought territory and we expect a bounce lower if the level mentioned will be touched. If 1.5750 will be broken we expect further upside movement after a test from above.

Fundamental Outlook
Great Britain’s Second Estimate GDP is released at 9:30 GMT and being the main gauge of economic performance, better values than the expected 0.7% will most likely generate Pound strength. As always, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: THANKSGIVING DAY GENERATES IRREGULAR PRICE ACTION

EUR/USD
Forex News: The data released yesterday by the United States was disappointing and generated US Dollar weakness, thus the pair had a bullish day and price broke through short term resistance.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/2014.11.27-Thanksgiving-Day-generates-irregular-price-action-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook
Today the United States celebrate Thanksgiving Day and this will most likely trigger irregular movement and periods of alternating volume, especially during the American session. From a strictly technical point of view, we anticipate a re-test from above of the recently broken level at 1.2500; adding to this is the position of the Relative Strength Index on an hourly chart, but if the bulls can maintain price above the mentioned level, we expect further upside movement.

Fundamental Outlook
Since today is Thanksgiving Day, The United States will not release any economic data. However, an important indicator will affect price action: the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index which is the main gauge of inflation for the German economy. The event is scheduled at 1:00 pm GMT and the CPI is expected to increase to 0.0% from the previous -0.3%, a fact which would be beneficial for the Euro.

GBP/USD
The British Gross Domestic Product met analysts forecast but worse than expected US economic data generated greenback weakness and allowed the pair to climb above resistance.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/2014.11.27-Thanksgiving-Day-generates-irregular-price-action-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook
The pair is trading above 1.5750 which was previously resistance but the Relative Strength Index on an hourly chart is showing clear overbought signs. This makes us believe that price will have another encounter with 1.5750; a bounce higher would suggest that 1.5750 is now support and that we will see further bullish price action.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule important economic indicators for today thus price direction will be mainly affected by the technical aspect but keep in mind that irregular movement can occur due to Thanksgiving Day.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: EUROPEAN INFLATION IN THE FOCUS. US DOLLAR STILL AFFECTED BY HOLIDAYS

EUR/USD
Forex News: Although the German CPI met analysts’ expectations and came out better than last month, the pair dropped yesterday below short term support; however the bears couldn’t continue the initial impulse and volatility toned down.
http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/2014.11.28-European-inflation-in-the-focus.-US-Dollar-still-affected-by-holidays-pic1-1024x479.png
Technical Outlook
The pair is trading below 1.2500 but the picture is mixed and we don’t expect a lot of action today considering that Thanksgiving will still affect the US Dollar. The bullish trend line seen on the chart above will be the first barrier in front of falling prices and the level at 1.2500 can hinder further bullish movement. A break of either one could trigger an extended move but low volume will be present probably and this can generate sharp turns.
Fundamental Outlook
The most important event of the day is the release of the European Consumer Price Index, scheduled at 10:00 am GMT and expected to decrease 0.3% compared with last month’s 0.4%. Lately inflation has been a major concern for the ECB and lower values than anticipated can have a negative impact on the Euro.
GBP/USD
Yesterday the pair returned to test the recently broken level at 1.5750 but resistance didn’t turn into support and the bears managed to take price lower. Overall we had a day controlled almost entirely by the sellers.
http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/2014.11.28-European-inflation-in-the-focus.-US-Dollar-still-affected-by-holidays-pic2-1024x479.png
Technical Outlook
Before the drop below 1.5750 the Relative Strength Index was showing an overbought condition which had an important role in yesterday’s drop, especially because neither the Pound nor the US Dollar was affected by economic news. Now price is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below 1.5750 so the picture is bearish but keep in mind that price is approaching oversold territory.
Fundamental Outlook
The Pound won’t be affected by any major economic news releases and the same is true for the US Dollar. We expect a day with irregular movement and volatility due to American holidays.
We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
Written by: Bogdan Giulvez

[pasfx]

Forex News: Bears take back control – support threatened

EUR/USD

Forex News: Although Spain showed yesterday that unemployment levels are starting to drop and the economy is picking up, the pair moved lower for almost the entire day as a positive sentiment surrounded the US economy and the greenback.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2014.12.03-Bears-take-back-control-support-threatened-pic-1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook
The pair moved below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and continued lower, until 1.2400 support was touched. The hourly Relative Strength Index traveled below 30, indicating an oversold condition and this makes us believe that a retracement higher will occur before 1.2400 can be clearly broken. This potential retracement can find resistance at the Moving Average and we expect the bearish movement to resume there, making another attempt to break 1.2400 and opening the door for the next support, located at 1.2360.

Fundamental Outlook
European Retail Sales numbers are released 10:00 am GMT and expected to change 0.6% from the previous -1.3%. Better values than forecast are beneficial for the Euro but the indicator tends to have a mild impact because the most important European countries usually release their retail sales numbers earlier.

Automatic Data Processing (ADP), a privately owned company will release today a version of the Non Farm Employment Report which is not as important as the Government data released Friday but it can still create a lot of volatility. The scheduled time is 1:15 pm GMT, the anticipated number is 223K while the previous was 230K and a higher number is usually beneficial for the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The British Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index posted a disappointing reading yesterday and this allowed the pair to drop for the entire duration of yesterday’s trading session.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2014.12.03-Bears-take-back-control-support-threatened-pic-2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook
The resistance at 1.5750 remains an important level for short term price action and has enough strength to reject strong bullish impulses, as seen from yesterday’s movement. We expect the current move to extend into the support located at 1.5590 but we don’t exclude the possibility of bullish retracements considering the position of the Relative Strength Index which is approaching oversold.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Services Purchasing Managers’ Index is the last one in this week’s series of surveys focused on optimism regarding economic and business conditions; it will be released today at 9:30 am GMT, with an expected figure of 56.6, slightly better than last month’s 56.2. As always, keep an eye on the US events as those will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]
Forex News: Bears take back control – support threatened

EUR/USD

Forex News: Although Spain showed yesterday that unemployment levels are starting to drop and the economy is picking up, the pair moved lower for almost the entire day as a positive sentiment surrounded the US economy and the greenback.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2014.12.03-Bears-take-back-control-support-threatened-pic-1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook
The pair moved below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and continued lower, until 1.2400 support was touched. The hourly Relative Strength Index traveled below 30, indicating an oversold condition and this makes us believe that a retracement higher will occur before 1.2400 can be clearly broken. This potential retracement can find resistance at the Moving Average and we expect the bearish movement to resume there, making another attempt to break 1.2400 and opening the door for the next support, located at 1.2360.

Fundamental Outlook
European Retail Sales numbers are released 10:00 am GMT and expected to change 0.6% from the previous -1.3%. Better values than forecast are beneficial for the Euro but the indicator tends to have a mild impact because the most important European countries usually release their retail sales numbers earlier.

Automatic Data Processing (ADP), a privately owned company will release today a version of the Non Farm Employment Report which is not as important as the Government data released Friday but it can still create a lot of volatility. The scheduled time is 1:15 pm GMT, the anticipated number is 223K while the previous was 230K and a higher number is usually beneficial for the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The British Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index posted a disappointing reading yesterday and this allowed the pair to drop for the entire duration of yesterday’s trading session.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2014.12.03-Bears-take-back-control-support-threatened-pic-2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook
The resistance at 1.5750 remains an important level for short term price action and has enough strength to reject strong bullish impulses, as seen from yesterday’s movement. We expect the current move to extend into the support located at 1.5590 but we don’t exclude the possibility of bullish retracements considering the position of the Relative Strength Index which is approaching oversold.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Services Purchasing Managers’ Index is the last one in this week’s series of surveys focused on optimism regarding economic and business conditions; it will be released today at 9:30 am GMT, with an expected figure of 56.6, slightly better than last month’s 56.2. As always, keep an eye on the US events as those will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

Desember 2014 :Mixed price action ahead of Interest Rate decisions

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Euro continued to weaken yesterday on speculation that Europe’s economy will need further stimulus from the ECB. Support was broken and the bears maintained control for the entire day.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2014.12.04-Mixed-price-action-ahead-of-Interest-Rate-decisions-pic-1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook
On an hourly chart the Relative Strength Index is showing an extreme condition, traveling well below the 30 level and it has even become oversold on a four hour chart. The support at 1.2360 was clearly broken and the pair is headed towards 1.2280, but before that level can be reached, we expect some sort of bullish retracement which will clear the oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index.

Fundamental Outlook
Today’s price action will be heavily influenced by the ECB Interest Rate decision, scheduled at 12:45 pm GMT and by the Press Conference that follows 45 minutes later. The rate is not expected to change from the current 0.05% and usually if there’s no rate change, the Press Conference is the day’s main market mover. Mario Draghi’s attitude and answers to journalists’ questions will most likely generate a lot of volatility and if he talks about increasing stimulus, we expect very strong movement.

GBP/USD

British Services Purchasing Managers’ Index posted a reading which surpassed analysts’ expectations and this allowed the Pound to strengthen against the US Dollar. A worse than expected number for the ADP Non Farm Employment Change also added to the climb.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2014.12.04-Mixed-price-action-ahead-of-Interest-Rate-decisions-pic-2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook
The pair is having trouble choosing a clear direction as all moves are quickly reversed. Now price is sitting once again above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the latest impulse is bullish, a fact that makes us believe that 1.5750 resistance will be touched once again. Keep an eye on the Relative Strength Index which is approaching overbought territory so a reversal is not out of the question.

Fundamental Outlook
At 12:00 pm GMT the Bank of England will announce the Interest rate but no change is expected from the current 0.50%. If this forecast comes true, the Pound will probably show limited volatility but caution is recommended nonetheless.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.12.08 :Forex News: Bearish advancements confirmed by a break of support

EUR/USD

Friday the US Dollar strengthened as a result of a much better than anticipated value of the Non Farm Employment Change. Analysts’ forecast was 231K new jobs but the actual number was 321K and this took the pair back into support.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2014.12.08-Bearish-advancements-confirmed-by-a-break-of-support-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook
The bearish momentum generated by the Non Farm Payrolls is likely to continue today and we expect a move below 1.2280. However, last week price bounced strongly once the current level was touched, so we might see several attempts until the level is clearly broken. Even if the break occurs, we expect price to return to the level of a retest, especially if the Relative Strength Index shows an oversold condition during the day.

Fundamental Outlook
The Eurogroup Meetings take place today, attended by important figures from the European financial and political scene. The meetings are closed to the press but sometimes officials talk to journalists during the day and a statement is released once the meetings conclude. Volatility may be present throughout the day but unless surprise developments take place, we don’t expect strong moves.

GBP/USD

American employment affected the pair strongly and took price almost 130 pips lower on the back of greenback strength. This may mark the end of the ranging price action seen during the last period.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2014.12.08-Bearish-advancements-confirmed-by-a-break-of-support-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook
The support at 1.5590 was broken Friday but considering the importance of this level for short term price action, we expect a retest from below which will show if the bears can take the pair lower and if the break was a real one. The Relative Strength Index is bouncing close to the oversold level and this may generate some bullish movement and probably the retest mentioned before.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any financial indicator releases for today, so we expect a slow day, with price action driven by the technical aspect.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.12.09 :Forex News: Price above support – Retracement or reversal?

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar continued to strengthen against the single currency yesterday, probably an effect of the surprisingly better than anticipated US employment data. Later in the day the bulls managed to retrace the pair higher for a test of the recently broken level.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2014.12.09-Price-above-support-Retracement-or-reversal-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook
The pair is currently re-testing the broken support at 1.2280 but the US Dollar is surrounded by a positive sentiment and we expect further downside movement. Yesterday’s low at 1.2247 will be the first barrier in front of the bears but before that level can be taken out, we might see a touch of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on an hourly chart, considering the fact that the Relative Strength Index touched the oversold level and bounced higher immediately.

Fundamental Outlook
The day ahead lacks major economic releases but the ECOFIN meetings take place today and volatility might be generated. The meetings are attended by finance ministers from the EU member states, discussing a range of financial matters.

GBP/USD

The Pound erased some of the losses incurred last week and the pair moved above the recently broken level at 1.5590 after a small dip which occurred early during the day.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2014.12.09-Price-above-support-Retracement-or-reversal-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook
Price is approaching the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on a four hour chart and its behavior in immediate vicinity of this dynamic resistance line will determine the next destination. A break of the EMA would probably add more bull strength, triggering a move closer to 1.5750, while a bounce would send the pair back into 1.5590 support.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Manufacturing Production will be released today at 9:30 am GMT. The indicator tracks changes in the total output produced by manufacturers and higher values are considered beneficial for the Pound as they show an increased economic activity. The previous change was 0.4% and today’s forecast is 0.2%. Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT an estimate of the British Gross Domestic Product is released by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR); although this is just an estimate, higher values than the previous 0.7% can strengthen the Pound.



Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.12.10 :Forex News: Short term price action favors the bulls. Main trend still down

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Euro had a very good day against the US Dollar, strengthening for more than 150 pips and breaking several resistance levels. For the most part of yesterday’s trading session the pair moved straight north and the bulls were in complete control.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2014.12.10-Short-term-price-action-favors-the-bulls.-Main-trend-still-down-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook
Two levels of interest were broken during yesterday’s rally: 1.2360 and 1.2400. Now price is sitting above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the momentum clearly belongs to the bulls. This makes us believe that the current impulse will extend towards 1.2500 but the Relative Strength Index is showing an overbought condition and the short term resistance at 1.2455 sits in front of rising prices. We expect some moves lower which will clear the overbought condition, followed by another climb but keep in mind that the main trend is bearish, thus stronger moves south are not out of the question.

Fundamental Outlook
The day ahead lacks major economic and financial news releases for both the Euro and the US Dollar, making the technical aspect the more important one.

GBP/USD

Yesterday’s price action was choppy and a clear direction wasn’t established until later in the day when the bulls managed to take price higher, above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2014.12.10-Short-term-price-action-favors-the-bulls.-Main-trend-still-down-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook
Although early in the week the pair moved below the support at 1.5590, the bears couldn’t maintain price below it and the break soon proved to be fake. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average was broken to the upside and this will most likely take the pair into the resistance at 1.5750. Even if this level will be broken to the upside, we don’t expect it to happen in the first attempt, considering that the Relative Strength Index might become overbought when price touches resistance.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today so price direction will be mainly influenced by technical factors.



Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.12.11 :Forex News: ECB’s Long Term Refinancing Option, a major market mover

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair moved above 1.2400 resistance, reversing a previous retracement below this level. The day belonged to the bulls but the action was rather slow, compared with the previous move, probably because economic releases were scarce.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/image001-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook
Price found support in close vicinity of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and of 1.2360 support but 1.2455 short term resistance wasn’t touched although the bulls controlled the day’s price action. We expect a move above 1.2455 resistance but if this doesn’t happen today, we are likely to see a return below 1.2360 support. Keep an eye on the Relative Strength Index which is approaching overbought and could trigger reversals.

Fundamental Outlook
At 10:15 am GMT the ECB will announce the value of their Targeted LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Option). This is the total amount of money the ECB will create and loan to European commercial banks in order to boost liquidity. The current value is 82.6B and the forecast is 148.2B but the impact might be difficult to anticipate as market participants can interpret differently the actual value.

The US Retail Sales are announced at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to change 0.4% while last month’s change was 0.3%. Higher values will most likely benefit the greenback because sales made at a retail level represent a hefty part of consumer spending which in turn is a major part of the entire economic activity.

GBP/USD

The pair showed choppy price action for the entire duration of yesterday’s trading session and remained in a tight range. Neither bulls nor bears were in clear control but minor advances north were made.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/image003-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook
The pair is still trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but important resistance sits in front of rising prices: 1.5750. If this level cannot be breached today, we expect price to start moving towards the support at 1.5590. If this is the case, the Moving Average will be the first area of dynamic support.

Fundamental Outlook
The pair’s direction will be influenced today by the US Retail Sales as the United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major news releases. Keep an eye on the CORE version of this indicator, which excludes automobiles from calculation.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.12.12 :Forex News: United States economic indicators – the deciding factor for Friday’s price action

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar strengthened yesterday against the Euro as the American Retail Sales came out with a better than expected value, showing that economic activity in this sector is picking up. ECB’s Targeted LTRO came out with the value of 129.8B, less than the expected 148.2 but the event didn’t create strong moves.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2014.12.12-United-States-economic-indicators-the-deciding-factor-for-Fridays-price-action-pic1-1024x481.png

Technical Outlook
After breaking 1.2455 to the upside, the pair became overbought as shown by the Relative Strength Index and this, coupled with the dollar strength generated by the US Retail Sales release, pushed the pair below 1.2400. Currently the pair is retesting the recently broken level from below and we believe this retest will result in another push lower. The first target is the support at 1.2360, followed by 1.2280.

Fundamental Outlook
All major indicators of the day come from the US with the first release being scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT in the form of the Producer Price Index. The indicator tracks changes in prices charged by producers and has inflationary implications because a higher price will be eventually passed on to the consumer. The forecast is -0.1% while the previous was 0.2% and higher values usually strengthen the greenback.

The University of Michigan will release their Consumer Sentiment survey at 2:55 pm GMT. Increased confidence among consumer is usually a leading signal of increased consumer spending and that’s the reason why a higher value than the expected 89.6 is perceived as beneficial for the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The pair touched 1.5750 resistance yesterday but the bulls failed to take price above and this resulted in an almost picture-perfect bounce lower. The fact that US Retail Sales exceeded analysts’ expectations also played a big role in yesterday’s price action.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2014.12.12-United-States-economic-indicators-the-deciding-factor-for-Fridays-price-action-pic2-1024x481.png

Technical Outlook
Although price bounced lower once 1.5750 resistance was touched, the pair couldn’t move below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and instead it showed rejection once the line was tested. For the time being, the pair’s direction is still not decided and our bias is neutral until either 1.5750 resistance or the 50 period EMA is broken. Next resistance is located at 1.5825 while next support sits at 1.5590.

Fundamental Outlook
The Pound had a slow week in terms of economic releases and today is no exception, so the pair’s direction will be influenced by the technical aspect and by the US releases.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.12.15 :Forex News: Slow Monday ahead, with US Dollar under pressure

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the Euro gained against the US Dollar as the US Producer Price Index disappointed analysts’ expectations, weakening the greenback. Later in the day, a better than expected value of a Consumer Confidence survey brought the pair slightly lower and triggered mild US Dollar strength.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2014.12.15-Slow-Monday-ahead-with-US-Dollar-under-pressure-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook
The pair is likely to continue on its current course until 1.2500 resistance is touched but if this happens, the Relative Strength Index will probably become overbought and this might trigger bearish movement. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average will offer support if touched but we don’t expect strong moves today as the economic scene lacks major releases and Mondays are usually slow days.

Fundamental Outlook
At 2:15 pm GMT the US Industrial Production is released but this is considered an event with medium impact on the US Dollar unless surprising numbers are posted. The forecast is 0.8% while the previous was -0.1% and higher than expected values are usually beneficial for the greenback.

GBP/USD

The pair moved mostly sideways for the entire Friday trading session, no substantial advances were made by either bulls or bears and price remained confined between support and resistance.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2014.12.15-Slow-Monday-ahead-with-US-Dollar-under-pressure-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook
The resistance at 1.5750 was barely touched Friday but the lack of strong momentum brought price back down, without volatility. We expect this slow, ranging movement to continue today and price to remain between 1.5750 and the four hour 50 period Exponential Moving Average. A break of either one would open the door for a move towards 1.5825 resistance or 1.5590 support but we don’t expect these levels to be touched today.

Fundamental Outlook
The day ahead lacks important releases for the Pound and the US event mentioned earlier is the only economic indicator that could generate strong movement.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.16.12 : The Forex Market: Heads-up for the BOE Bank Stress Tests results and European PMIs

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair had a rather slow day yesterday, with the US Dollar gaining against the Euro; however the move wasn’t substantial and support was not threatened.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2014.12.16-Heads-up-for-the-BOE-Bank-Stress-Tests-results-and-European-PMIs-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook


Price moved below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but the bears weren’t able to continue the move and no significant advances were made. This type of movement is likely to continue today unless surprising numbers are showed by the European economic indicators. Resistance still sits at 1.2500 and support at 1.2360 and we believe resistance might be touched before the bears will make a run for support.


Fundamental Outlook

The French Manufacturing PMI is released at 8:00 am GMT with an anticipated value of 48.7. Since this is a leading indicator of economic health, focused on the manufacturing sector, higher numbers will have a positive impact on the Euro. Half an hour later, at 8:30 am GMT the German indicator with the same name will be released. The forecast is 50.4 and the release usually has a higher impact than the French Manufacturing PMI.

At 10:00 am GMT the German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey comes out with an anticipated increase to 19.8 from the previous 11.5. The survey is derived from the opinions of about 275 German investors and analysts and tries to gauge their optimism regarding economic outlook, thus better numbers usually strengthen the Euro.


GBP/USD

The Pound weakened severely versus the US Dollar yesterday and the pair dropped after another close encounter with 1.5750 resistance.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2014.12.16-Heads-up-for-the-BOE-Bank-Stress-Tests-results-and-European-PMIs-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The momentum clearly belongs to the bears as shown by yesterday’s price action and strictly from a technical point of view, we expect the downside to prevail today. First support is located at 1.5590, a level which proved very strong in the past and might reject price higher again if it will be touched, but a break will most likely draw in more sellers; however, the technical aspect will be overshadowed by the fundamental today.

Fundamental Outlook

The Bank of England will make public at 7:00 am GMT the Bank Stress Test results; major UK banks are tested through simulated market conditions to see how they would hold up during a crisis. The market might have a mixed reaction to this stress test so we recommend caution. The Financial Stability Report will be released by the BoE at the same time (7:00 am GMT) and Governor Mark Carney will hold a Press Conference about the report at 9:00 am GMT. At 9:30 the British Consumer Price Index is released and expected to change 1.2% compared with the previous 1.3%, a thing which would further weaken the Pound.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

[pasfx]

2014.17.12 : Forex News: Huge day for the US Dollar with the Fed meetings in the spotlight

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday both the German Manufacturing PMI and German ZEW Economic Sentiment surveys showed values which exceeded analysts’ expectations and the single currency strengthened as a result, breaking resistance.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2014.12.17-Huge-day-for-the-US-Dollar-with-the-Fed-meetings-in-the-spotlight-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook


On an hourly chart the pair has become overbought as signaled by the Relative Strength Index and this suggests that price might move below the level of 1.2500, for a touch of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If the current test of recently broken resistance turns into a bounce higher, the first target is located at 1.2575.


Fundamental Outlook

We have an important day for the greenback: the first event is the release of the Consumer Price Index, scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to change -0.1% while last month we saw a change of 0.0%. Usually an increase in inflation is viewed as beneficial for the US Dollar and could take the pair lower.

In the evening we have a cluster of events which will most likely have a tremendous impact on the greenback: at 7:00 pm GMT the FOMC will announce the interest rate (no change expected from the current <0.25%), together with the FOMC Economic Projections for the next 2 years and a Rate Statement which will contain insights into the reasons which determined the rate decision. Half an hour later, at 7:30 pm GMT, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will hold a Press Conference which might be the biggest market mover of the day so extra caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

The British CPI dropped to 1.0%, a fact which only weakened the Pound briefly before the bulls took over, taking the pair above resistance.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2014.12.17-Huge-day-for-the-US-Dollar-with-the-Fed-meetings-in-the-spotlight-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The break of 1.5750 couldn’t be sustained and price soon moved below the level, showing rejection on a four hour chart. The pin bar created right on resistance suggests that price encountered a strong level which cannot be broken decisively at least for the moment, but we have a day filled with important news releases and we are likely to see strong moves which will decide the next medium term direction.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom’s Claimant Count is released at 9:30 am GMT with an expected change of -19.8K while last month’s number was -20.4K. The indicator shows the change in the number of people who applied for unemployment related social help and a higher number suggests that the jobs market is contracting so the Pound will be negatively affected by a rise in jobless claims. At the same time, a breakdown of the MPC votes on the latest interest rate is released and this is a good opportunity for traders to see if the BOE is changing its stance on the interest rate. The US events will have a direct and strong impact on the pair’s movement.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

[pasfx]

2014.18.12 : Forex News: Dollar strengthens although Fed mentions patience about raising rates

EUR/USD

Forex News: Before the Fed meetings the US Dollar strengthened against the Euro and moved below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but “patience” about raising rates was mentioned and the greenback weakened briefly before taking back control and breaking support. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2014.12.18-Dollar-strengthens-although-Fed-mentions-patience-about-raising-rates-pic1-1024x479.png
Technical Outlook

Although Fed’s stance wasn’t very hawkish, we consider the US Dollar is likely to continue to strengthen and to take the pair towards 1.2280. For that to happen we need to see 1.2360 support clearly broken and re-tested from below but keep in mind that on an hourly chart the Relative Strength Index is oversold and this may trigger bullish retracements.

Fundamental Outlook

The German IFO Business Climate survey comes out at 9:00 am GMT with an anticipated change to 105.6 from last month’s 104.7. The survey uses a sample of 7,000 businesses in an attempt to gauge optimism and this large sample is the reason why it’s so respected and why it usually has a strong impact on the Euro; if the analysts’ expectations will be surpassed we might see Euro strength. At 3:00 pm GMT the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is released, showing the opinions of manufacturers from the Philadelphia district about general business conditions. The expected number is 26.3 and values above forecast usually strengthen the greenback.

GBP/USD

The Pound also had a bad day against the US Dollar but once the Fed events took place, the pair started to move in a hard to trade manner, with lots of whipsaws before finally deciding to move south. http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2014.12.18-Dollar-strengthens-although-Fed-mentions-patience-about-raising-rates-pic2-1024x479.png
Technical Outlook

The latest momentum belongs to the bears but 1.5590 support sits in front of falling prices. This level proved very strong in the past so we might see bullish moves in its close vicinity, considering also the position of the Relative Strength Index which is approaching an oversold condition by moving below the 30 level. If 1.5590 is broken to the downside, the next support sits at 1.5540.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom Retail Sales are released at 9.30 am GMT and a hefty drop is expected: 0.3% from the previous 0.8%. Such a drop would signify a contracting economy and possibly a weaker Pound. As always, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

[pasfx]

2014.19.12 : Forex News: Finishing the week on a bearish note

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Euro continued to weaken against the US Dollar during yesterday’s trading session and the pair touched 1.2280 support. Both the German and American economic indicators posted readings close to analysts’ expectations and this dampened their impact.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2014.12.19-Finishing-the-week-on-a-bearish-note-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The pair moved easily below 1.2360 and continued south to touch 1.2280 although the Relative Strength Index was trading close to oversold territory for the most part of the day. At the moment price is showing rejection off of 1.2280 support and the Relative Strength Index is starting to move upwards so we anticipate a day with bullish movement which may find resistance at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. A clear break of support may bring in additional sellers.


Fundamental Outlook

The day ahead lacks major news events for the Euro and the US Dollar, so price direction will be mainly driven by the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

British Retail Sales posted a surprising 1.6% increase while analysts’ expectations were just 0.3%. This created Pound strength and a bullish day.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2014.12.19-Finishing-the-week-on-a-bearish-note-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

After moving below the support at 1.5590 and coming very close to 1.5540 support, the pair started to move north, back above 1.5590. The Relative Strength Index touched the 30 level, becoming oversold and this played a major role from a technical point of view. Today we expect mixed price action, without significant advances; if the Relative Strength Index will become overbought during the day, the sellers might take the pair lower, with 1.5590 being the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

AT 9:30 am GMT, UK’s Public Sector Net Borrowing is announced. This is the amount of new debt held by the central and local governments and a higher number is viewed as detrimental for the Pound; the expected value is 14.8B while last month the debt was at 7.1B.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

[pasfx]

2014.22.12 :
Forex News: A lackluster fundamental scene brings choppy price action ('http://www.gdmfx.com/forex-news-a-lackluster-fundamental-scene-brings-choppy-price-action')

EUR/USD

Friday the bears continued to take price lower, breaking 1.2280 support on the back of a stronger US Dollar. Overall we saw unidirectional price action, without whipsaws or sudden reversals.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2014.12.22-A-lackluster-fundamental-scene-brings-choppy-price-action-pic1-1024x481.png

Technical Outlook

We are entering Christmas Week and Mondays are known to be slow days, especially if no major news is released. The Relative Strength Index has been moving for an extended period close to the 30 level which suggests oversold and the current bear run seems a bit overextended so we expect bullish retracements. However, keep in mind the pair is in a clear downtrend from a short and long term perspective so further downside action is not out of the question.


Fundamental Outlook

The US Existing Home Sales are announced at 3:00 pm GMT and this is the day’s only notable release. An increase in home sales suggests a thriving economy and usually strengthens the greenback but the indicator has a medium impact on price action. Today’s forecast is 5.21M and higher values will probably trigger limited dollar strength.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar gained against the Pound as well but the pair’s descent wasn’t as substantial as seen in the EUR/USD pair and support was not broken.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2014.12.22-A-lackluster-fundamental-scene-brings-choppy-price-action-pic2-1024x481.png

Technical Outlook

The pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on an hourly chart but 1.5590 support sits in front of falling prices. Today we anticipate another encounter with the mentioned level but if this happens, the Relative Strength Index might move below the 30 level, suggesting an oversold condition. Considering the pair is not in a strong trend from a short term perspective, we anticipate a bounce higher towards the 50 period EMA if 1.5590 is not clearly broken.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for the day so price action will be driven by technical factors and by the US house market data.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

[pasfx]

2014.24.12 : Forex News: Price action slows down for Christmas Eve

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair dropped substantially yesterday as the US Dollar continued to strengthen and the Euro weakened on the back of speculation that Greece may be headed towards early elections.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2014.12.24-Price-action-slows-down-for-Christmas-Eve-pic1.png

Technical Outlook

Short term support at 1.2220 was broken after two small bounces and once this happened, more sellers joined the renewed downtrend. The latest momentum belongs to the bears and the pair is trading well below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but the Relative Strength Index is showing an oversold condition and this makes us believe that price will retrace higher. Keep in mind that today is Christmas Eve and the market will tend to present irregular behavior.


Fundamental Outlook

The US Unemployment Claims are the single notable release of the day, scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT. The expected number is 291K and an increase in unemployment would suggest that the economy is slowing down and this usually weakens the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

United Kingdom’s Current Account disappointed yesterday, showing that the deficit increased and the Pound responded quickly by weakening against the greenback.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2014.12.24-Price-action-slows-down-for-Christmas-Eve-pic2.png

Technical Outlook

The pair remained under the level at 1.5590 which turned into resistance as showed by the touch from below which resulted in a bounce lower. The important support at 1.5540 was also broken and this might suggest the end of the ranging period, but the approaching of Christmas might nullify the effect of this break and it wouldn’t be out of the ordinary to see a return back above 1.5540. The Relative Strength Index is also oversold and this may add to the probability of bullish pullbacks.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any news releases for the day and we expect irregular price action, with alternating volatility.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

[pasfx]

2014.25.12 : Forex News: Christmas brings price action to a halt

EUR/USD

Forex News: Forex News: As expected price action yesterday was slow and the economic releases didn’t have a lot of impact. The pair retraced higher and touched short term resistance but a break didn’t occur and instead price bounced lower.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/image0011-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

Today price action will come to a stop due to the fact that a large part of the world is celebrating Christmas. When the market will open, the pair may present gaps and probably irregular volatility.

Fundamental Outlook

Many important banks around the world (including American and European banks) will be closed today, celebrating Christmas Day and no economic indicators will be released for either the Euro or the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

Similar to our other pair, the GBP/USD retraced higher, following an oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index. For the most part of the day price traded above and below 1.5540, without significant advances.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/image0031-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

As mentioned before, the market is taking a breather today and trading will be suspended. Depending on the world’s time zones, price movement will resume sooner or later and once it does, we expect irregular movement.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom’s Banks are closed due to the Christmas Holiday and no economic releases are scheduled.

We wish a Mary Christmas to those of you who celebrate this Holiday!

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

[pasfx]

2014.26.12 : Forex News: The market resumes movement

EUR/USD

Forex News: The market was closed yesterday, so price didn’t show any activity and no economic news came out.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2014.12.26-The-market-resumes-movement-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook


Even though the market is open today, we still expect price action to be irregular and choppy. The short term resistance at 1.2220 is holding and price bounced lower once it touched it so we expect some downside price action, with 1.2165 being the first minor support.


Fundamental Outlook

Many banks around the world are still closed and no economic indicators are released, a fact which contributes to the day’s low volume and irregular volatility.


GBP/USD

The pair stopped yesterday and no movement was seen as many people around the world celebrated the Christmas Holiday.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2014.12.26-The-market-resumes-movement-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

Wednesday price moved above the level at 1.5540 but we cannot consider this to be a true break as it could be generated by low volume and might not be a real attempt of the bulls to take control of the pair. The main levels to watch today are located at 1.5540 and 1.5590 but keep in mind that price action could be characterized by sharp turns and alternating volatility.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any news releases and British banks are closed today, a fact which will add to the day’s irregular price action.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

[pasfx]

2014.12.29:Forex News: Irregular price action on the back of a lackluster fundamental environment

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the market resumed movement after being paused for Christmas and the pair moved lower, following a bounce on resistance. Overall we had a slow session, with price traveling in a single direction.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2014.12.29-Irregular-price-action-on-the-back-of-a-lackluster-fundamental-environment-pic1-1024x481.png

Technical Outlook
For the time being price is confined between 1.2165 support and 1.2220 resistance and a break of either one may trigger and extended move in that direction but considering the approaching of the New Year and the lack of economic releases, we may also see false breaks. It’s possible for price to move outside one of the levels but then to run out of steam and return inside, so extra caution is recommended if you are going to trade breakouts.

Fundamental Outlook
The day lacks important news releases and we expect choppy price action, with low volume and irregular volatility.

GBP/USD

The pair had a very slow day Friday, with price moving very close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average which remained flat for the entire day.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2014.12.29-Irregular-price-action-on-the-back-of-a-lackluster-fundamental-environment-pic2-1024x481.png

Technical Outlook
Today we will probably see either a bounce higher off of 1.5540, or a bearish break and a consequent move towards the minor support at 1.5485. However, the first move is likely to be reversed, so wait for a re-test before trading if a break does occur. Keep in mind that price is flat and Friday’s movement doesn’t show a lot about future direction.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any economic releases for the day, contributing to the lackluster fundamental scene.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.30.12 : Forex News: US Consumer Confidence survey holds center stage

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday, after bouncing higher off of 1.2165 support, the pair headed higher and touched short term resistance but price remained confined inside the horizontal channel for the entire day.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2014.12.30-US-Consumer-Confidence-survey-holds-center-stage-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook


Under normal market conditions we would expect a move outside the horizontal channel created by 1.2220 resistance and 1.2165 support but given the fact that volume is low and price action irregular, we consider that any breakouts will turn out to be false. In other words, after a move outside the channel, price is likely to return inside it, but keep in mind that technical analysis is less efficient during this period.The only notable event of the day is the release of the American Consumer Confidence survey scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT. The expected figure is 94.6, an increase from last month’s 88.7 and usually such a climb would strengthen the US Dollar because increased consumer confidence often means that consumer spending will increase in the near future.


GBP/USD

The Pound came close to 1.5590 resistance yesterday before starting to drop. Currently the pair is trading below 1.5540 and the bears have won the short term battle.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2014.12.30-US-Consumer-Confidence-survey-holds-center-stage-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

Although price moved below the short term support at 1.5540, we might easily see a return above it, or at least a re-test if price is indeed headed south. If the re-test results in a bounce lower, the first support is located at 1.5485 but keep an eye out for any oversold condition signaled by the Relative Strength Index as this could generate a move higher. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average will offer dynamic resistance if touched from below.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no important economic or financial indicators released by the United Kingdom, so price action will be decided by the technical aspect and by the US Consumer Confidence survey.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

[pasfx]

2014.31.12 : Forex News: Trading slows down for New Year’s Eve

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday’s price action was rather slow, a fact determined by the approaching of the New Year’s Eve and by US consumer confidence data which posted a reading close to analysts’ expectations.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2014.12.31-Trading-slows-down-for-New-Years-Eve-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook


Today is the last day of the year and trading will be heavily influenced by this fact. We expect sudden drops and surges in volatility, with potentially sharp whipsaws on the back of low volume. The levels to watch are 1.2220 as resistance and 1.2125 as potential support. Price behavior around the current level of 1.2165 will most likely determine the next short term direction.

Fundamental Outlook

German Banks will be closed today, celebrating the New Year’s Eve and the US Dollar will be somewhat affected by the release of the Unemployment Claims scheduled at 1.30 pm GMT and expected to rise to 287K from the previous 280K. A higher value is detrimental for the US Dollar under normal conditions.


GBP/USD

Yesterday’s price action was mainly controlled by the bulls and the pair managed to climb back above 1.5540. Overall it was a normal trading session, without major developments.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2014.12.31-Trading-slows-down-for-New-Years-Eve-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

Price is trading above 1.5540 and above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, meaning that the short term bias is bullish. However, we believe that an overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index will probably generate another bearish move, with 1.5540 being the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

The British fundamental scene lacks major releases and we expect irregular price movement, mostly due to the New Year’s Eve.

We hope your year was profitable and we look forward to trading together during 2015. Have a Happy New Year!

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

[pasfx]

2015.02.01 : Forex News: Trading resumes. Low volume is still present

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the market was closed as the world celebrated the first day of the New Year so price didn’t show any movement. Today the market resumes normal movement but low volume is likely to still be present.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/image0011-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook


The pair is trading below 1.2125 and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average so the bias is bearish but the relative Strength Index is trading below the 30 level, a fact which indicates an oversold condition. This makes us believe that today we will see bullish movement but keep in mind that volume is still not back to normal so we might see irregular price action.


Fundamental Outlook

At 3:00 pm GMT the US Manufacturing PMI is released, with an expected value of 57.6, a small decrease from the previous 58.7. An even smaller value would probably weaken the US Dollar but the market might overlook this release considering it’s the first trading day of the New Year.


GBP/USD

No movement was seen yesterday and price remained confined between 1.5590 resistance and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/image0031-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

If price will have trouble breaking the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, we will probably see a move above the resistance at 1.5590 but a break of the mentioned EMA will most likely take the pair below 1.5540 support. Our bias is neutral and we consider that an extreme condition of the Relative Strength Index (above 70 or below 30) will generate a reversal move.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom will release the Manufacturing PMI at 9:30 am GMT. The forecast is 53.7, a small increase from last month’s 53.5 and higher values are usually beneficial for the Pound as this indicator is a measure of optimism among purchasing managers and acts as a leading signal of economic health.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

[pasfx]

2015.05.01 : Forex News: Overextended prices call for a bullish pullback

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the US Dollar continued to strengthen against most of its peers on speculation that the Fed might raise interest rates during the first part of 2015. The entire day was controlled by the bears and the pair moved below support.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/image0013-1024x481.png

Technical Outlook

Although price action is bearish and 1.2040 support was broken, we expect the pair to move on a bullish path today. This is based on the fact that the Relative Strength Index is trading below the 30 level for a long period and price is overextended to the south. However, keep in mind that we are in a strong downtrend and the pair is under pressure, so it is likely to see further advances south after a bullish pullback.


Fundamental Outlook

At 1:00 pm GMT the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index is released and expected to rise to 0.1% from the previous 0.0%. The indicator shows the change in the price of goods and services and acts as the main gauge of inflation; usually numbers that exceed expectations are beneficial for the currency.

GBP/USD

The Pound weakened tremendously Friday as the British economy is showing signs of slowing down and the United States move closer to a potential interest rate hike.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/image0033-1024x481.png

Technical Outlook

The huge drop seen Friday is likely to generate a pullback to the upside. The extreme oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index adds to this prediction but the strength of the bears is undeniable so we expect price to continue to move south after this retracement is complete. Potential resistance is located at 1.5420 while support sits at 1.5260.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index is released today at 9:30 am GMT. The indicator gauges optimism among purchasing managers form the construction sector and acts as a leading indicator of economic health. Higher numbers than the anticipated 59.2 will most likely strengthen the Pound, taking the pair higher.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

[pasfx]

2015.06.01 : Forex News: The market remains oversold. Retracements still expected

EUR/USD

Forex News: The market opened with a big gap and the Euro took a big hit yesterday as concern about a potential Greek separation from the European Union escalated. Speculation about ECB purchasing bonds on a large scale added to the bearish momentum.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015.01.06-The-market-remains-oversold.-Retracements-still-expected-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The sudden drop seen at market open yesterday was stopped by the support at 1.1875. We expect this level to be tested again today but bullish retracements are still a distinct possibility so we might see a touch of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on an hourly chart. On a four hour chart both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic (11,6,6) are moving upwards, coming from oversold territory.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI is released today at 3:00 pm GMT with an expected change to 58.2 from the previous 59.3. This survey is based on the opinions of about 400 purchasing managers outside of the manufacturing industry and tries to gauge their optimism regarding business and economic conditions. It acts as a leading indicator of economic health and that’s why numbers that exceed expectations are considered beneficial for the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The pair had a huge drop which took price below 1.5260 support; the weekly gap was closed by a quick bullish move but then price dropped again on the back of a worse than expected value of the British Construction PMI.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015.01.06-The-market-remains-oversold.-Retracements-still-expected-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The Relative Strength Index is struggling to move out of oversold territory but the Pound is weakening. If price doesn’t move above 1.5260 soon, we expect further downside movement but otherwise, the first target is represented by 1.5320 short term resistance. This level and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will probably create a confluence zone which will be hard to break if price touches it.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Services PMI is announced; the forecast is 58.9, a small increase from last month’s 58.6. The indicator tries to measure optimism among purchasing managers from the Services sector and usually, higher than anticipated values strengthen the Pound.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

[pasfx]

2015.07.01 : Forex News: US Employment data and FOMC Meeting Minutes in the spotlight

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair continued to move south after a small retracement higher. Overall price action was controlled by the bears but immediate support couldn’t be broken.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015.01.07-US-Employment-data-and-FOMC-Meeting-Minutes-in-the-spotlight-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook


Price came in close vicinity of 1.1875 support and showed rejection at this level. Both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic reached oversold territory and these facts make us believe that a move higher is in order. The first barrier is the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and if this resistance can be broken, the next target is 1.2040. The pair is still in a downtrend so moves south cannot be ruled out.

Fundamental Outlook

At 10:00 am GMT the European Consumer Price Index is announced and expected to change 0.0% while last month’s value was 0.3%. The CPI is the main gauge of inflation and a higher value is usually beneficial for the Euro because current inflation levels are considered too low by the ECB.

The ADP Non Farm Employment Change is released at 1:15 pm GMT and shows the change in the number of new jobs created during the previous month. However, today’s version is released by a privately owned company, not by the US Government so the impact is usually lower. The expected number is 227K, an increase from last month’s 208K and higher numbers strengthen the US Dollar. Later in the day, at 7:00 pm GMT the FOMC Meeting Minutes are released, offering details about the latest Fed Meeting.

GBP/USD

Resistance couldn’t be broken yesterday and the pair dropped on the back of Pound weakness generated by a worse than anticipated value of the Services PMI.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015.01.07-US-Employment-data-and-FOMC-Meeting-Minutes-in-the-spotlight-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The bulls failed to take price above 1.5260 resistance and the rest of the day belonged to the bears. Price action created minor support around 1.5165 and a break of this level would probably take the pair into the next support, located at 1.5100. The Relative Strength Index moving upwards, coming from below 30 and this favors bullish movement.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic releases today so price direction will be mainly influenced by the U.S. indicators and by the technical aspect.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

[pasfx]

2015.08.01 : Forex News: Multi-year lows reached as the Dollar continues its run

EUR/USD

Forex News; Yesterday we’ve seen that European inflation is still dropping and as a result the downtrend extended further. The US employment report posted better than anticipated numbers and this added to the bears’ strength.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015.01.08-Multi-year-lows-reached-as-the-Dollar-continues-its-run-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The FOMC Meeting Minutes created mixed reaction as the Fed mentioned that a rate hike is unlikely before April but overall price action was bearish for most of the day, moving below 1.1875. If a bullish retracement will occur, the mentioned level will probably turn into resistance and the chances of further bearish movement will be increased near this level. Immediate support sits at 1.1800.

Fundamental Outlook

European Retail Sales are released today at 10:00 am GMT with an expected change of 0.3% compared with last month’s 0.4%. Sales made at a retail level are crucial for an economy because consumer spending represents an important part of overall economic activity, thus higher numbers will generate some Euro strength.

GBP/USD

The pair broke the important support at 1.5100 and continued to move lower for most of the day. The US Dollar had mixed behavior at the time of the Meeting Minutes release.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015.01.08-Multi-year-lows-reached-as-the-Dollar-continues-its-run-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

After moving below 1.5100, the pair retraced to test the recently broken level. Now price action around this potential resistance will determine the next short term direction: a bounce will open the door for further downside action, while a move above it will probably take the pair into the immediate resistance created by the hourly 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The next psychological and technical support sits at 1.5000.

Fundamental Outlook

The Bank of England will announce the interest rate today at 12:00 pm GMT but no change is expected from the current 0.50% so, unless a huge surprise happens, the event will not create a lot of volatility.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

[pasfx]

2015.09.01 : Forex News: U.S. Non Farm Payrolls – ending the week with strong movement

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the bears remained in control of the pair but some upside pressure was seen at the time of the European Retail Sales release which posted better than expected numbers.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015.01.09-U.S.-Non-Farm-Payrolls-ending-the-week-with-strong-movement-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

Both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic remain in the lower part of their respective windows, near oversold levels but the pair continues to slide lower. The minor support at 1.1800 was broken yesterday and now it is being tested from below; if price returns above it, the first resistance is offered by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but keep in mind that today the technical side will be secondary to the fundamental one.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s main event is the release of the U.S. Non Farm Employment report which is scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT and it’s considered the most important jobs related data. If more jobs are created, the economy is thriving and consumer spending will probably increase in the near future so better numbers than the expected 241K will most likely strengthen the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The Bank of England kept the interest rate at 0.50% and the announcement didn’t create a lot of volatility. The pair made another push for 1.5000 support but failed to touch it.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015.01.09-U.S.-Non-Farm-Payrolls-ending-the-week-with-strong-movement-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The picture remains bearish, with the first resistance located at 1.5100 and support at 1.5000. Yesterday’s price action created minor support at 1.5035 and this will be the first target if 1.5100 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average cannot be broken. The day’s price action will be heavily influenced by the fundamental scene.

Fundamental Outlook

The US Non Farm Payrolls will be the day’s headline but apart from that an important role will be played by the release of the British Manufacturing Production scheduled at 9:30 am GMT and expected to increase 0.4% from the previous -0.7%. Such an increase would be beneficial for the Pound and would take the pair higher.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

[pasfx]

2015.12.01 : Forex News: A quiet fundamental scene influences price action

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Non Farm Payrolls posted a better than expected number but still lower than last’s month value, a fact which created mixed movement Friday at the time of the release.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015.01.12-A-quiet-fundamental-scene-influences-price-action-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

The first reaction to the US jobs report was a drop which was soon reversed and the pair started to move upwards. The immediate target is represented by 1.1875; this could be a place where the bears will take back control of the pair, especially if the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic will be coming out of overbought territory. To the downside, the first potential support is located at 1.1750.

Fundamental Outlook

The day ahead lacks major economic releases, a fact which makes us believe that we will see slow, ranging movement.

GBP/USD

Overall Friday was a bullish day, with irregular movement present at the time of the American Non Farm Employment Change report. The pair remained above 1.5100 for the entire day.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015.01.12-A-quiet-fundamental-scene-influences-price-action-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook

Price moved above horizontal resistance and above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on an hourly chart, completing a much needed bullish retracement. A downtrend is still in place and this increases the chances of bearish movement with the first target being located at 1.5100, followed by 1.5035. To the upside, the first resistance sits at 1.5260.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule economic releases today, so price action will be driven by the technical aspect but we don’t expect any substantial developments.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

[pasfx]

2015.01.13 :Forex News: Mixed price action ahead of the British Consumer Price Index

EUR/USD

Forex News: The fundamental scene was calm yesterday as no major news came out and price had mixed behavior, reversing a drop which occurred early in the day.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015.01.13-Mixed-price-action-ahead-of-the-British-Consumer-Price-Index-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook
The pair moved above and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on an hourly chart, without clear direction although the bears made an attempt to retake control. From a short term perspective the picture is mixed and the bias neutral, with the first levels of importance being 1.1875 as resistance and 1.1750 as support. The Stochastic entered oversold territory but the Relative Strength Index doesn’t confirm it so we will not allocate a lot of importance to this bullish signal.

Fundamental Outlook
Today is a lackluster fundamental day, but a noteworthy event is the release of the U.S. JOLTS Job Openings scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT. The indicator shows the number of jobs openings, excluding the farming industry but this is a lagging indicator because it is released about 40 days after the month for which it is calculated has ended. Nonetheless, better numbers than today’s expected 4.91M can strengthen the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

Trading was mixed yesterday as the Pound weakened during the first part of the day but most of the losses were erased in the second part, after a bounce at 1.5100 support.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015.01.13-Mixed-price-action-ahead-of-the-British-Consumer-Price-Index-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook
Short term price action created minor resistance at 1.5190 and we expect another encounter with this level considering the fact that yesterday the pair bounced immediately after a bounce at 1.5100. The Relative Strength Index doesn’t show an extreme reading and price is moving close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average so the short term control doesn’t belong to either side but a clear downtrend is in place and a touch of 1.5190 might generate bearish action.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Consumer Price Index, which is the main gauge of inflation, will be released today at 9:30 am GMT. The expected change is 0.7% while the previous was 1.0% and such a drop will most likely trigger Pound weakness.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2015.01.14:Forex News: U.S. Retail Sales to influence the greenback as support still holds

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair continued its descent yesterday on the back of a weaker Euro and short term support was touched again. Concern that the ECB will add more stimulus contributed to the pair’s bearish movement.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015.01.14-U.S.-Retail-Sales-to-influence-the-greenback-as-support-still-holds-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook
Price bounced higher as soon as 1.1750 support was touched, showing that bears are having difficulties breaking this level. Both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are close to their respective oversold levels and are starting to move up; this, coupled with the bullish bounce seen at 1.1750 increases the chance of a move north which could find resistance at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook
The U.S. Retail Sales are the day’s main event and is scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT. The expected change is 0.2% from the previous 0.7%, a fact which would be detrimental or the US Dollar because a major part of overall economic activity is represented by sales made at a retail level. Keep an eye on the CORE version of the indicator which is released at the same time but excludes automobiles from calculation.

GBP/USD

The pair had another day characterized by a sharp reversal yesterday as we saw price drop about 100 pips and then climb the same distance. British inflation dropped more than expected and this was the main reason for the initial move south.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015.01.14-U.S.-Retail-Sales-to-influence-the-greenback-as-support-still-holds-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook
After failing to break 1.5190 resistance, price dropped below 1.5100 but the break soon proved to be false and a bullish bounce took price back up, close to 1.5190. This is a sign that price action is ruled by indecision and the next direction is not clear until a breakout occurs. Even this break of support or resistance happens today, a safer entry would be after a successful retest of the recently broken level.

Fundamental Outlook
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will testify today before the Treasury Select Committee; the topic is the Financial Stability Report and the testimony could bring some irregular and possibly strong movement so caution is recommended. The scheduled time is 2:15 pm GMT.



Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.01.15 :Forex News: Short term resistance threatened. Bounce or Break?

EUR/USD

Forex News: The U.S. Dollar took a hit yesterday as the American Retail Sales posted a much worse than expected change of -0.9%, indicating an economic slowdown. The bulls took control of the pair after a failed attempt to break 1.1750 support.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015.01.15-Short-term-resistance-threatened.-Bounce-or-Break-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook
The downtrend remains intact as long as 1.1875 is resistance but it looks like the bullish pullback might continue until the mentioned level is touched. The failed break of 1.1750 shows that the downtrend was overextended and needed a “breather” in the form of a retracement higher. If the bulls cannot maintain price above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average we will most likely see another attempt to break 1.1750.

Fundamental Outlook
The U.S. Producer Price Index is released at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to change -0.3% while last month’s value was -0.2%. Higher numbers are usually beneficial for the greenback because the PPI has inflationary implications (a higher price charged by producers will be paid by the consumer eventually).

At 3:00 pm GMT the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is released, offering information about the state of the manufacturing sector in the Philadelphia district. Higher values than the expected 20.3 are considered bullish for the US Dollar. Later in the day, at 4:15 pm GMT, Bundesbank President Weidmann will deliver a speech in Berlin and this could be a volatility trigger if the he will talk about the Euro crisis.

GBP/USD

The US Dollar weakened against the Pound as well and as a result the pair moved above resistance. Mark Carney’s testimony was almost unnoticed by market participants.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015.01.15-Short-term-resistance-threatened.-Bounce-or-Break-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook
After several attempts, the pair finally broke 1.5190 resistance and continued upwards until 1.5260 was touched. Today we expect a break of either one of the mentioned levels but notice that once 1.5260 was touched, price immediately bounced lower, a fact which shows that the bears still have a lot of underlying power and that we might see a move below 1.5190.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases so price action will be influenced by the U.S. events and by technical factors.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2015.01.16 :Forex News: Swiss National Bank’s shocking decision, likely to influence price action further

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Swiss National Bank made a shocking decision yesterday to remove the cap which kept the EUR/CHF pair at a 1.20 rate. The effect on CHF pairs was tremendous, each moving several thousand pips but the Euro was affected as well and the EUR/USD pair dropped for more than 200 pips when the news came out.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015.01.16-Swiss-National-Banks-shocking-decision-likely-to-influence-price-action-further-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook
The drop took the pair to a low of 1.1569 before the entire distance was traveled back up where the move originated. At the moment price is trading close to 1.1640 support. The environment is choppy and the market is dangerous but if the bears can maintain price below 1.1640, the next destination is the low we mentioned earlier. Further downside movement is possible as the effects of SNB’s decision will most likely be seen today as well.

Fundamental Outlook
The day’s main event is scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT in the form of the U.S. Consumer Price Index. There’s no change expected from the previous -0.3% but higher values are considered beneficial for the US Dollar under normal circumstances. The last important event of the week is the release of the US Consumer Sentiment survey scheduled at 2:55 pm GMT. A small increase to 94.2 from the previous 93.6 is expected, a fact which would strengthen the greenback because consumer sentiment is correlated with consumer spending which is an important part of the economy.

GBP/USD

The SNB decision didn’t affect the GBP/USD as much but some impact was seen and the pair briefly dropped below support before heading higher, into resistance.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015.01.16-Swiss-National-Banks-shocking-decision-likely-to-influence-price-action-further-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook
The resistance at 1.5260 was touched again yesterday but the pair didn’t break it and instead it headed lower. Now price is moving below 1.5190 and might be headed towards 1.5100 considering that resistance held and that a downtrend is still in place. The bias remains bearish as long as price remains below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on an hourly chart.

Fundamental Outlook
There are no major data releases scheduled for the day ahead so we expect price action to be driven by the technical side, unless surprises occur.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2015.01.19 :Forex News: The calm after the storm. Price action slows down

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the pair continued to move lower as the market continued to be affected by Swiss National Bank’s surprise decision. Towards the end of the trading session however, some of the losses were recuperated.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015.01.19-The-calm-after-the-storm.-Price-action-slows-down-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook
The bias remains bearish as the pair is constantly printing new lows and the Euro lacks strength. A new encounter with 1.1640 is very likely but if price cannot get there today, at least the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will probably be touched. To the downside the low at 1.1460 reached Friday will offer the first support but we might see slow price action today on the back of a lackluster fundamental scene.

Fundamental Outlook
The day ahead lacks major economic releases and U.S. Banks will be closed, celebrating Martin Luther King Day. This will probably translate into low volume, especially during the American trading session.

GBP/USD

Overall Friday the bears were in control of the pair but we saw another failed attempt to break 1.5100 support. The pair is still trading in a range, without clear direction.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015.01.19-The-calm-after-the-storm.-Price-action-slows-down-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook
On an hourly chart the bears made several attempts to close price below 1.5100 and all of them resulted in moves bounces higher. If price cannot move relatively soon below this level, it would be a sign of bear weakness and we will probably see a move higher, with 1.5260 being the main resistance. Minor resistance is located at 1.5190 but lately price moved several times above and below this level, making it less important. If 1.5100 is broken, the next support is located at 1.5035.

Fundamental Outlook
The entire week is pretty slow when it comes to British economic releases and today is no exception as no major indicators are released.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2015.01.20 :Forex News: Bullish pressure mounts, resistance threatened

EUR/USD

Forex News: Price action was pretty slow yesterday, with a bullish bias for most of the day. However, resistance couldn’t be broken and no major economic or financial indicators were released.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015.01.20-Bullish-pressure-mounts-resistance-threatened-pic1-1024x481.png

Technical Outlook
Overall the picture remains bearish and we expect further moves down once the Relative Strength Index reaches overbought. The resistance at 1.1640 is the first place where trend resumption can occur but a bullish break followed by a successful re-test of this level would invalidate this scenario and would make 1.1750 the first target. To the downside, 1.1460 remains the first support.

Fundamental Outlook
The German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey will be today’s biggest release. It is scheduled at 10:00 am GMT and expected to change to 40.1 from the previous 34.9. The survey is derived from the opinions of about 275 German analysts and investors and tries to gauge their optimism regarding a 6-month outlook for the German economy; usually numbers that exceed expectations are beneficial for the single currency.

GBP/USD

The Pound-Dollar traded in a tight range for the most part of yesterday’s session and neither support nor resistance was threatened. Price remained close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015.01.20-Bullish-pressure-mounts-resistance-threatened-pic2-1024x481.png

Technical Outlook
Yesterday’s price action doesn’t offer a lot of clues about future direction and the same is true for the Relative Strength Index which is hovering in the middle of the 30-70 range. The next short term direction will be probably determined by the break of either 1.5190 resistance or 1.5100 support; a conservative entry would be after a re-test and a bounce off of the recently broken level.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule notable economic data releases today, thus price action will be mainly driven by the technical aspect.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.01.21 :Forex News: Mixed price action ahead of ECB’s decision on quantitative easing

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair remained confined in a tight range yesterday although the German ZEW survey posted a better than anticipated value. It looks like market participants are waiting for the ECB decision regarding the QE program before they commit too much to trading this pair.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015.01.21-Mixed-price-action-ahead-of-ECBs-decision-on-quantitative-easing-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook
The resistance at 1.1640 was perfectly touched but the bulls couldn’t breach it and for the rest of the day price action continued sideways. The Relative Strength Index is moving in the middle of the 30-70 range so it doesn’t offer any hints about future direction but the Stochastic is crossing downwards and price bounced at resistance. These are bearish signs so we might see additional movement south.

Fundamental Outlook
The U.S. Building Permits are released at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to slightly increase to 1.06M from the previous 1.05M. Since building a construction starts with obtaining a permit, today’s indicator offers hints about future activity in the construction sector and higher numbers usually strengthen the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The Pound had a good day against the US Dollar and the pair rallied above immediate resistance for a touch of 1.5190. For almost the entire day the bulls were in complete control.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015.01.21-Mixed-price-action-ahead-of-ECBs-decision-on-quantitative-easing-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook
The show of force put on by the Pound yesterday is likely to generate additional bullish movement but the Relative Strength Index touched the 70 level and resistance sits in front of rising prices. We expect a move lower before 1.5190 resistance can be broken; this will open the door for a move above the mentioned level and will make 1.5260 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Claimant Count Change is announced at 9:30 am GMT, showing the fluctuation in the number of people who asked for welfare due to their unemployed condition. A higher number than the anticipated -24.2K is considered detrimental for the Pound. At the same time the Bank of England will make public the votes on the latest interest rate decision. This is a good opportunity for traders to see if any of the members are shifting their stance regarding a potential rate change, but the event usually goes unnoticed if the vote breakdown is the same as last month.
Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2015.01.22 :FOREX NEWS: All eyes on the ECB meeting as QE speculation comes to an end

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair had a wild day yesterday, with a lot of mixed movement generated by the fact that ECB officials said the proposed amount to be used in the quantitative easing program is 50 billion Euros/month. The actual figure will be announced today.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015.01.22-All-eyes-on-the-ECB-meeting-as-QE-speculation-comes-to-an-end-pic-1.png

Technical Outlook
The volatility created by the ECB news took the pair to a high of 1.1680 before dropping below 1.1640 resistance which apparently is still holding although it was briefly breached. Today we expect choppy price action, without clear direction until the ECB announces the official figure for the quantitative easing program. The technical aspect of trading will be overshadowed by this event and caution is recommended throughout the day.

Fundamental Outlook
The day’s main event is the ECB meeting during which the value of the QE will be announced. The interest rate decision is made public at 12:45 pm GMT (no change expected) and a Press Conference will be held at 1:30 pm GMT. The market can have a mixed reaction to the figure that will be announced and extreme caution is needed if trading at the time.

GBP/USD

The members of the Monetary Policy Committee had a surprising change of stance as all 9 of them now believe that a rate change is not needed. Previously, 2 members voted for a rate increase, while 7 voted to keep the rate unchanged

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015.01.22-All-eyes-on-the-ECB-meeting-as-QE-speculation-comes-to-an-end-pic-2.png

Technical Outlook
The initial market reaction when the vote breakdown was released triggered a sharp drop which found support at 1.5100. The pair moved briefly below the mentioned level but the bears couldn’t break it decisively and price started to range in close vicinity of this support. Now the pair shows signs of indecision and we expect this to remain unchanged until the ECB decision comes out; although it doesn’t affect the GBP/USD pair directly, the event is eagerly anticipated by market participants so it is likely to have an impact on other pairs as well.

Fundamental Outlook
The Pound has a slow day ahead in terms of economic releases and we expect a volatile day, generated by the events mentioned earlier.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2015.01.23 :Forex News: Support shattered as the ECB reveals QE value

EUR/USD

Forex News: The ECB announced that combined asset purchases will total a 60 billion EUR/month until at least September 2016. The event created mixed market reaction at first but soon after the pair started to drop and support was tested.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015.01.23-Support-shattered-as-the-ECB-reveals-QE-value-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook
The support at 1.1460 was breached during yesterday’s drop and Euro weakness will probably generate further downside movement after a re-test of the mentioned level. The Relative Strength Index moved below 30, indicating that a retracement is due; however, an oversold condition of the RSI doesn’t mean that price will retrace with certainty. For now the picture remains bearish and the pair seems headed towards new lows.

Fundamental Outlook
The French Manufacturing PMI is released today at 8:00 am GMT, followed half an hour later by the German indicator with the same name. French PMI is expected to show a value of 48.1, while the forecast for the German indicator is 51.8; these indicators are gauges of economic health, focused on the Manufacturing sector and better than anticipated values could strengthen the Euro.

GBP/USD

The Pound-Dollar had mixed movement yesterday as the effect of the ECB decision extended to this pair as well. Resistance was touched before the bears finally took control of the pair and broke support.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015.01.23-Support-shattered-as-the-ECB-reveals-QE-value-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook
In the recent past the pair moved several times below 1.5100 but returned above it almost immediately so a re-test would be in order before this break can be considered a valid one. The pair’s next target is 1.5035, followed by 1.5000 and the bias is bearish but bullish moves are not out of the question, depending on the economic data released today by the United Kingdom.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Retail Sales are released at 9:30 am GMT and are expected to change -0.6% while last month’s value was 1.6%. Such a drop would suggest that the economy is starting to slow down and the Pound will be negatively affected.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2015.01.28 :Forex News: U.S. Dollar weakened ahead of the Fed Meetings

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair climbed yesterday as the US Dollar weakened partially due to the worse than expected value of the Durable Goods Orders. Minor resistance was broken, making the short term bias bullish.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015.01.28-U.S.-Dollar-weakened-ahead-of-the-Fed-Meetings-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook
After moving above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and re-testing it from above, price headed towards 1.1460 resistance . If this level will be reached, we expect some bearish price action to take place, especially if the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic will show overbought conditions. If a bounce occurs, the 50 period EMA will offer support and a break of this line would bring price back into 1.1290.

Fundamental Outlook
The day’s main event is the U.S. Federal Funds Rate and the FOMC Rate Statement that accompanies it. The scheduled time is 7:00 pm GMT and although the rate is not expected to change (<0.25%), strong volatility will most likely be present, depending on the contents of the Statement, so caution is recommended.

GBP/USD

The Pound registered another strong bullish day against the greenback, although the British GDP somewhat disappointed. Resistance was broken after a brief bounce and the bulls dominate short term price action.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015.01.28-U.S.-Dollar-weakened-ahead-of-the-Fed-Meetings-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook
Price broke 1.5100 decisively and moved above 1.5200 resistance but for the time being the level cannot be considered broken. The Relative Strength Index has reached overbought territory and this makes us believe that the break of resistance experienced yesterday will not generate additional bullish movement or at least not before a move down occurs, which will clear the mentioned overbought condition. Support will be provided by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and by the bullish trend line seen on the picture.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule important news releases for today so we expect price action to be driven by the US events mentioned earlier and by the technical aspect.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2015.01.29 :Forex News: German inflation in the spotlight, technical side secondary

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair had a slow day ahead of the FOMC Statement release and surprisingly, price action remained that way once the document came out. Volatility was just briefly present as the Fed kept the rate unchanged and announced they will use patience before modifying it.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015.01.29-German-inflation-in-the-spotlight-technical-side-secondary-pic-1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook
Price moved sideways for the most part of yesterday and neither support nor resistance was broken, but the pair is still in a downtrend so we favor bearish movement today. The first barrier is located at 1.1290 but if this support will hold, we anticipate a move into 1.1460 resistance. A lot will depend on the German inflation indicator released today and we consider this will decide price direction for the rest of the day.

Fundamental Outlook
Germany’s Consumer Price Index is released today at 1:00 pm GMT and expected decrease -0.8% while last month’s value was 0.0%. The CPI is the main gauge of inflation and such a drop would weaken the Euro since Germany’s economy is of crucial importance for the entire Euro Zone and the ECB is struggling to bring inflation levels higher.

GBP/USD

Price traveled once again above 1.5200 but failed to move away before the Fed event. Once the Statement was released not much has happened and resistance couldn’t be broken.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015.01.29-German-inflation-in-the-spotlight-technical-side-secondary-pic-2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook
The failed attempt to break 1.5200 resistance makes us believe that moves lower will follow. If this is true, the first support will be offered by the bullish trend line combined with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, followed by 1.5100. The Relative Strength Index is moving downwards and this increases the chances of bearish price action.

Fundamental Outlook
Today the United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major economic or financial releases and price direction will be mainly influenced by technical factors.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2015.01.30 :Forex News: American GDP could bring the sellers in control once again

EUR/USD

Forex News: Although German inflation figures disappointed yesterday by showing a change of -1.0%, the Euro climbed during the first part of the day but overall we had a slow trading session, with some bearish movement in the second part.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015.01.30-American-GDP-could-bring-the-sellers-in-control-once-again-pic1-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook
We continue to favor the short side and we anticipate a break of 1.1290 to the downside. Both the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index on an hourly chart are starting to curve downwards, agreeing with our bias. The next important support is located around 1.1114, but this price is not likely to be reached today unless surprising developments occur.

Fundamental Outlook
The Euro Zone Consumer Price Index is announced at 10:00 am GMT; the forecast is a change of -0.5% while the previous was -0.2% and such a drop would further weaken the Euro. The U.S. Advance Gross Domestic Product, which is the main gauge of U.S. economic performance, will be announced at 1:30 pm GMT. The expected change is 3.0% and any value above this will be beneficial for the greenback.

GBP/USD

The Pound weakened substantially against the US Dollar yesterday and the bears managed to break the uptrend line and to pierce 1.5035 support.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015.01.30-American-GDP-could-bring-the-sellers-in-control-once-again-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook
The support at 1.5035 was pierced but is not clearly broken and the Relative Strength Index is oversold. These two facts make us believe that price will pull back higher before breaking support decisively. If support is broken while the Relative Strength index is oversold, price will probably return to re-test the level from below, a fact which may clear the oversold condition.

Fundamental Outlook
The Net Lending to Individuals is the only notable event coming out of the United Kingdom today. The scheduled time is 9:30 am GMT and the expected value is 3.2B; higher figures suggest that people feel comfortable spending money and this indicates that consumer spending will probably increase in the near future. All this would have a positive effect on the Pound and would take the pair higher but the event usually produces just medium impact.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2015.02.03 :Forex News: Price confined in tight ranges. Breakouts expected

EUR/USD

Forex News: American Manufacturing data disappointed yesterday and the US Dollar lost its appeal. The pair climbed but price action was choppy for most of the day. The release of the Spanish Unemployment numbers was rescheduled for today.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/2015.02.03-Price-confined-in-tight-ranges.-Breakouts-expected-pic-1.png

Technical Outlook

The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is flat and price is confined in a very tight range, being caped to the downside by 1.1290 support and by 1.1365 to the upside. Lately 1.1365 acts as short term resistance and we anticipate a bounce lower, with the first target being 1.1290. However, price is just moving sideways and this kind of movement doesn’t offer enough hints about immediate direction. Since the main downtrend is intact, we have a bearish bias.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:00 am GMT the Spanish Unemployment numbers are released and expected to show a change of 83.4K compared with last month’s -64.4. Initially the release was scheduled for yesterday and the forecast value was also a lot different. This might not affect the indicator’s impact but use caution nonetheless.

GBP/USD

The pair showed some sharp reversals yesterday, especially on the lower time frames. British Manufacturing data came out close to analysts’ expectations and this added to the choppy movement.
http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/2015.02.03-Price-confined-in-tight-ranges.-Breakouts-expected-pic-2.png

Technical Outlook

Price came very close to 1.5100 resistance before reversing and moving below 1.5035 support. Although this support is not decisively broken, the short term bias is bearish because the pair bounced at resistance and is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If price doesn’t move above 1.5035, the first target is represented by 1.4950.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Construction PMI is released at 9:30 am GMT; the anticipated value is 56.9 (57.6 previous) and higher numbers will probably strengthen the Pound as this survey is derived from the opinions of purchasing managers regarding the current and future business conditions and acts as a leading indicator of economic health.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market. Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).
Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2015.02.04 :Forex News: The week’s first U.S. jobs-related data decides short term bias

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair broke resistance yesterday and continued to rally without any particular fundamental reason. Spanish Unemployment claims came out better than expected but the event didn’t play a major role in yesterday’s pr

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Technical Outlook
The recent rally broke 1.1365 short term resistance and took price in close vicinity of 1.1460, shifting momentum towards the bulls. However, the move is not backed by strong fundamentals and both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic have reached overbought territory. These things make us believe that the recent bullish move will not extend much further. A clear break of 1.1460 followed by a successful re-test could mean that price is set for new advances north.


Fundamental Outlook
At 1:15 pm GMT, Automatic Data Processing Inc., a privately owned company will release their version of the U.S. Non Farm Payrolls. The indicator shows how many new jobs were created during the previous month and often offers hints about the Government data which will be released two days later. The impact can be quite strong, especially if the numbers differ from analysts’ expectations. Higher values than the anticipated 224K usually strengthen the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The US Dollar weakened against the British Pound as well and the pair moved comfortably above 1.5100 resistance. The British Construction PMI showed a higher number but the release was not the cause of the rally.

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Technical Outlook
Recent price action created short term support around 1.4990. We consider 1.4990 support because as we saw yesterday the pair rallied strongly after bouncing off of this level. Now that 1.5100 was broken, the bulls are likely to take price into 1.5200 resistance but keep in mind that the Relative Strength Index has entered overbought territory on an hourly chart and this might hinder future advances to the north. A touch of 1.5100 from above is very probable.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Services Purchasing Managers’ Index is released today at 9:30 am GMT. This survey acts as a leading indicator of economic health and higher numbers than the anticipated 56.6 can strengthen the Pound but the indicator is not known to be a strong market mover and the U.S. jobs data will probably have a stronger impact.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2015.02.05 :Forex News: Buyers’ gains in peril unless resistance gives way soon

EUR/USD

Forex News: After moving above resistance yesterday, the pair took a dip on the back of a stronger US Dollar. The ADP Non Farm Employment numbers showed that fewer jobs were created than analysts’ expected but the effect wasn’t substantial.

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Technical Outlook
The fact that price moved back below 1.1460 shows that the bulls are not yet ready to reverse the main downtrend. If the pair can move below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, we anticipate a descent into the support located at 1.1365. To the upside, 1.1460 still remains resistance and the chances of a break will increase if price will bounce at the 50 period EMA.

Fundamental Outlook
The day’s most important U.S. indicator is the Trade Balance which shows the difference between imported and exported goods. A number below zero means that imports exceed exports and a lower than anticipated number is usually detrimental for the US Dollar. Today’s forecast is -38.0B and the scheduled time is 1:30 pm GMT.

GBP/USD

British Services PMI came out with a better than expected value, a fact which helped the Pound and took the pair above 1.5200 resistance.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/2015.02.05-Buyers-gains-in-peril-unless-resistance-gives-way-soon-pic2-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook
Although yesterday price action was bullish, rejection was seen in the second part of the day. The Relative Strength Index is still trading close to its 70 level, indicating an overbought condition which will increase the chances of a move below 1.5200. Immediate resistance is located at 1.5260 but the current move up seems exhausted and a break is less likely to occur.

Fundamental Outlook
Price direction will be affected today by the Bank of England decision regarding the interest rate. A change is not expected from the current 0.50% but often just speculation and rumors about a rate change can trigger strong movement so caution is recommended. The scheduled release time is 12:00 pm GMT.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2015.02.06 :Forex News: US Non Farm Payrolls steal the headlines again

EUR/USD

Forex News: The first part of yesterday’s trading session was controlled by the sellers who managed to take price below 1.1365. Later in the day a disappointing value of the U.S. Trade Balance weakened the US Dollar and allowed the pair to climb.

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Technical Outlook
The resistance at 1.1460 managed to stop yesterday’s rally and this might suggest that price is about to turn to the downside. However, all moves are quickly reversed lately and the picture is unclear; we slightly favor bearish moves but we acknowledge the fact that today’s price direction will be heavily influenced by the U.S. Non Farm Payrolls. The levels to watch are 1.1460 as resistance and 1.1290 as support.

Fundamental Outlook
Without a doubt the most important event of the day is the release of the US Non Farm Employment Change scheduled at 1:30pm GMT. The indicator shows how many new jobs were created during the previous month and is widely considered the most important employment related data for the United States. Levels of employment and consumer spending are closely tied together because people with jobs spend more than unemployed ones, so a higher than anticipated number for today’s release will most likely strengthen the greenback. The forecast is 236K while the previous value was 252K.

GBP/USD

As anticipated the Bank of England kept the interest rate unchanged at 0.50% and the event didn’t have a strong impact but US Dollar weakness generated a break of resistance, putting the bulls in short term control.

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Technical Outlook
Yesterday’s rally paused at 1.5315, turning this level into minor resistance. The gap seen a few weeks back happened around this level as well and this adds to the possibility of it becoming resistance, but its strength is not yet tested. The Relative Strength Index is close to overbought, increasing the chances of bearish moves but price direction today will be directly correlated with the US employment data. If 1.5315 is broken, the next resistance is located at 1.5540; first potential support sits at 1.5260.

Fundamental Outlook
Since the United Kingdom didn’t schedule high impact data releases, the day’s market mover will be the US Non Farm Payrolls.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2015.02.09 :Forex News: G20 Meetings bring together the world’s key people. Currencies react

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday all eyes were focused on the U.S. employment numbers. The NFP release showed that more jobs were created than analysts expected and this strengthened the US Dollar, taking the pair close to support.

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Technical Outlook
The latest momentum belongs to the bears and the long term trend is down so today we expect further movement south. First minor support is located at 1.1300 but both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are oversold on an hourly chart so we anticipate small moves to the upside before support can be broken decisively. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average will offer the first form of resistance.

Fundamental Outlook
The G20 (Group of 20) Meetings take place today, attended by central bankers and finance ministers from the member states. The meetings are closed to the press but an official statement will be released at the end of the event. Sometimes participants talk to journalists during the day and this can generate volatility on the currency market.

GBP/USD

The better than expected figure for the US Non Farm Payrolls and the US Dollar strength generated took the pair lower Friday, after an initial move above minor resistance.


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Technical Outlook
Positive U.S. data combined with an overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index triggered a move below 1.5260. Lately the bulls have made good advances but the overall trend is bearish so today we might see price move into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Our bias is slightly bearish, but we anticipate a climb before price can move south.

Fundamental Outlook
The G20 meetings will be the day’s main event as the United Kingdom doesn’t release any major economic or financial indicator.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2015.02.09 :Forex News: G20 Meetings bring together the world’s key people. Currencies react

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday all eyes were focused on the U.S. employment numbers. The NFP release showed that more jobs were created than analysts expected and this strengthened the US Dollar, taking the pair close to support.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/2015.02.09-G20-Meetings-bring-together-the-worlds-key-people.-Currencies-react-pic1-1024x481.png

Technical Outlook
The latest momentum belongs to the bears and the long term trend is down so today we expect further movement south. First minor support is located at 1.1300 but both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are oversold on an hourly chart so we anticipate small moves to the upside before support can be broken decisively. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average will offer the first form of resistance.

Fundamental Outlook
The G20 (Group of 20) Meetings take place today, attended by central bankers and finance ministers from the member states. The meetings are closed to the press but an official statement will be released at the end of the event. Sometimes participants talk to journalists during the day and this can generate volatility on the currency market.

GBP/USD

The better than expected figure for the US Non Farm Payrolls and the US Dollar strength generated took the pair lower Friday, after an initial move above minor resistance.


http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/2015.02.09-G20-Meetings-bring-together-the-worlds-key-people.-Currencies-react-pic2-1024x481.png

Technical Outlook
Positive U.S. data combined with an overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index triggered a move below 1.5260. Lately the bulls have made good advances but the overall trend is bearish so today we might see price move into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Our bias is slightly bearish, but we anticipate a climb before price can move south.

Fundamental Outlook
The G20 meetings will be the day’s main event as the United Kingdom doesn’t release any major economic or financial indicator.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2015.02.10 :Forex News: British Manufacturing data and estimated GDP decide Pound direction

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair had a pretty calm trading session yesterday, with price oscillating between support and resistance. The G20 meetings did not generate substantial moves.

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Technical Outlook
Price action was confined between 1.1270 support and 1.1360 resistance and it seems like the pair is under bearish pressure. Today we expect a break of 1.1270 minor support and a move towards 1.1100 area. However, if price moves above 1.1360 and above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, we expect the bulls to continue higher but we don’t believe 1.1500 will be threatened unless surprise developments take place.

Fundamental Outlook
The day lacks major releases for both the Euro and the US Dollar but the second day of the G20 meetings could generate sudden moves.

GBP/USD

Price action yesterday was mostly bearish and price touched both support and resistance, without managing to break either of them.

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Technical Outlook
As long as the pair remains below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, our short term bias is bearish in anticipation of a break of 1.5200 support. Although we favor the short side, a break of 1.5260 would most likely take the pair into 1.5315 minor resistance. During the day watch for overbought/oversold conditions of the RSI as the pair is not in a strong trend and this increases the chances of reversals after an extreme reading (above 70/below 30).

Fundamental Outlook
The British Manufacturing Production numbers come out today at 9:30 am GMT. The indicator tracks changes in the total output generated by the manufacturing sector and values above the forecast 0.3% usually strengthen the Pound. Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT the NIESR GDP Estimate comes out. The previous value was 0.6% and numbers above it are normally beneficial for the Pound because this estimate is usually very accurate.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2015.02.11 :Forex News: Geopolitical turmoil as key personalities are meeting to discuss Greece and Ukraine crises

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair had another slow day and remained confined between support and resistance after another failed attempt to break out. No major indicators were released and this contributed to the choppy price action.

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Technical Outlook
A breakout is highly probable today but the direction is hard to predict considering this week’s slow movement. The levels to watch are 1.1270 as support and 1.1360 as resistance; if these are broken the pair will travel towards 1.1500 or 1.1100, depending on the initial breakout direction. Geopolitical factors will play a crucial role and the technical side will be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook
The leaders of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine will meet today in an attempt to put an end to the Ukrainian conflict. The outcome of the negotiations can have major implications on the currency market thus caution is highly recommended. The ECOFIN Meetings also take place today and the highlight will be the negotiation for the Greek debt issue. So far a conclusion hasn’t been reached and a new deal for Greece hasn’t been struck but if today we see some new developments, the Euro is likely to react swiftly.

GBP/USD

The Pound had a slow day as well and is now struggling to break resistance after a bounce at support. The GDP estimate was released 25 minutes earlier than initially scheduled but the event didn’t create a lot of movement and the same goes for manufacturing data.

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Technical Outlook
Price bounced twice at 1.5200 support and is now sitting above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on both an hourly and a four-hour chart. This puts short term bias in favor of the bulls but 1.5260 resistance is still not broken so we might very well see a rebound lower. A breakout is highly probable, with the first bullish target located at 1.5315. A break of 1.5200 support will open the door for 1.5100.

Fundamental Outlook
The ECOFIN Meetings will be the day’s highlight but the United Kingdom didn’t schedule other major news releases.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2014.02.12 :Forex News: A strong breakout is looming. British Inflation Report ahead

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair remained inside the range yesterday as the current geopolitical situation still remains tense and no decisive action was taken.

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Technical Outlook
Our view on the pair remains neutral, in anticipation of a breakout which is long overdue. The direction of this breakout will be decided by any new developments coming from Greece and Ukraine. The levels to watch are 1.1270 as support and 1.1360 resistance and considering that price is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on an hourly and four-hour chart, we slightly favor the short side.

Fundamental Outlook
U.S. Retail Sales are released at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to post a change of -0.3% compared with last month’s -0.9%. Sales made at retail levels represent a major part of overall economic activity and that’s why values that exceed expectations are usually beneficial for the US Dollar. The indicator is considered high-impact so we might get a breakout after its release.

GBP/USD

The Pound-Dollar moved stronger yesterday but we saw a sharp whipsaw once 1.5300 resistance was touched and this made trading rather difficult on the lower time frames.

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Technical Outlook
What appeared to be a very strong break of 1.5260 resistance soon turned out to be just a single move which was quickly reversed at 1.5300 resistance. If the bears can keep price below 1.5260, it would mean that 1.5200 will be the next immediate target. Inflation-related data and Mark Carney’s press conference will probably decide the next short term price direction.

Fundamental Outlook
At 10:30 am GMT the Bank of England will release the Inflation Report which contains an outlook on economic performance and inflation for the next 2 years. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference at the same time, discussing the contents of the Report and we recommend caution if trading during the conference because inflation is always a sensible issue and sharp moves may be present.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2015.02.16 :Forex News: Eurogroup Meetings and Greek debt take center stage

EUR/USD

Forex News: The German Gross Domestic Product surpassed analysts’ expectations Friday and the U.S. Consumer Sentiment survey disappointed but despite all this, the day lacked clear direction and no major advances were made.

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Technical Outlook
Latest price action created minor resistance at 1.1440 and now the pair is headed towards 1.1360. Although last week was bullish, the advance is not strong and a move into support is very likely, especially if the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is broken to the downside. Overall we expect a slow day due to the lack of major economic announcements, but if new developments for the Greek debt issue take place, we will most likely see strong moves.

Fundamental Outlook
The Eurogroup Meetings take place today, attended by key personalities from the financial and political scene. The Greek debt issue will be discussed and will play an important role for today’s price direction. Keep in mind that the meetings are closed to the press but sometimes information is leaked throughout the day and an official statement is released once the meetings finish. U.S. banks will be closed, celebrating President’s Day thus no major economic indicators are released.

GBP/USD

The pair had an almost flat day Friday and neither side made any advances. U.S. consumer data came out below analysts’ expectations but this wasn’t enough to create directional movement.

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Technical Outlook
If price touches 1.5420 again but the bulls cannot break it on the first try, we expect price to drop below the 50 Period Exponential Moving Average and to head towards 1.5340. A break of this level would expose 1.5300 support but we don’t expect a break of this level to happen today. Since the end of last month the pair has been in an uptrend so a bullish bounce at 1.5340 is not out of the question.

Fundamental Outlook
The day lacks British economic indicators thus price action will be driven by the technical aspect.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2015.02.17 :Forex News: Heads up for British inflation and German ZEW survey

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday’s price action was slow and the pair lacked strong directional movement as U.S. banks were closed in observance of Presidents’ Day and at least at the time of writing, a clear solution to the Greek debt problem hasn’t been reached.

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Technical Outlook
The minor resistance at 1.1440 wasn’t threatened yesterday and the same is true for the support at 1.1360. For the time being the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is offering good support from a short time perspective; a clean break of this line will open the door for a touch of 1.1360 while a bounce and consequent break of 1.1440 will make 1.1500 the next target.

Fundamental Outlook
At 10:00 am GMT the German ZEW Economic Sentiment is released, showing the opinions of about 275 German analysts and professional investors regarding a 6 month economic outlook. The survey acts as a leading indicator of economic health and numbers above the anticipated 56.2 usually strengthen the Euro.

GBP/USD

The picture remains unclear for the Pound-Dollar as yesterday we saw a failed breakout, followed by a bearish move below 1.5420.

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Technical Outlook
Current direction favors the bears and resistance is still holding so price is likely to continue moving down and to find support at 1.5340. If the Relative Strength Index becomes oversold by the time price touches support, we anticipate a bullish bounce and keep in mind that price is in a medium term uptrend so we might see continuation moves above 1.5420.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Consumer Price Index is released today at 9:30 and is expected to decrease to 0.3% from the previous 0.5%. The indicator is the main gauge of British inflation and usually lower numbers than analysts’ forecast are detrimental for the Pound so we might see down moves if this comes true.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2015.02.18 :Forex News: Greek issue still unsolved, Fed Meeting Minutes ahead

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the Euro weakened against the US Dollar in the first part of the session but erased some of the losses once the German ZEW came out with a better value than previous. Although analysts anticipated a stronger climb, it is still the highest in a year and this added some fuel to the single currency.

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Technical Outlook
Despite the Euro strength generated by the ZEW value, the bulls couldn’t break 1.1440 and the pair started to move south once again. The Greek debt problem is still not solved and this is one of the reasons why the market is still searching for a clear direction. Today we expect another touch of 1.1360 support but our view is mostly neutral as price direction still remains heavily influenced by the Greek talks.

Fundamental Outlook
The most important event for the US Dollar is the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes scheduled at 7:00 pm GMT. It will contain details of the Fed’s latest meeting and more importantly, it can offer hints about future monetary policy direction. If this is the case, the market will react swiftly and the greenback will show strong movement.

GBP/USD

The British Consumer Price Index met analysts’ forecast, showing a change of 0.3% and this created mixed reaction. The bulls failed to threaten resistance and the bears are looking stronger for the time being.

http://www.gdmfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/image003-1024x479.png

Technical Outlook
Current momentum belongs to the bears as they managed to take price below 1.5340 and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on an hourly chart. If bearish pressure mounts, today we expect a touch of 1.5260 but 1.5300 could be a strong barrier in front of falling prices. A bounce above 1.5340 would probably generate an extended move into 1.5420.

Fundamental Outlook
At 9:30 am GMT the British Claimant Count Change is released. The anticipated figure is -25.2K and usually lower numbers are beneficial for the currency because the indicator shows how many people applied for unemployment-related benefits. At the same time the Bank of England will announce a breakdown of their latest rate votes but usually this event only creates strong movement if one or more of the MPC members changed their stance.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker (http://www.gdmfx.com/?ib=207).


Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]